CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

by the way this is when the HWRF and the other dynamical models need to be taken into account more so than the global at least for intensity. they are better suited to deal with the Lee troughing. both the HWRF and HNOM keep Lane a Cat 2-3 at or near landfall with hurricane force winds spreading over the islands.

[OahuWahine]

doesn't sound like your roof would survive hurricane force winds

That's what I'm afraid of. At this point just hoping Oahu doesn't take a direct hit.

how close to the ocean are you?

Not terribly close. Around 10 miles.

[ncapps]

I keep repeating this, but with the uncertainty in track, why isn't Oahu and even Kauai under the watch.

[gatorcane]

EC did make a west shift, turns at the last minute

The east shifts could be done. I was surprised the Euro shifted so east to begin with last night. Now we see if other models start shifting west some.

[CrazyC83]

I keep repeating this, but with the uncertainty in track, why isn't Oahu and even Kauai under the watch.

Next advisory should at least add Oahu.

[Yellow Evan]

I keep repeating this, but with the uncertainty in track, why isn't Oahu and even Kauai under the watch.

Not in the 48 time frame yet.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 211755
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1727 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

A. HURRICANE LANE EP142018.

B. 21/1730Z.

C. 14.2N.

D. 152.6W.

E. GOES-W.

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS.

G. VIS/IR/EIR.

H. Remarks: EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE AND SURROUNDING B RING, YIELDING A DATA T OF 7.0 (+0.5 FOR BF). MET AND PT ARE 6.5. FT BASED ON DATA T.

I. ADDL POSITIONS NONE.

$$

KINO.

CPHC trying to bail out Dvorak by adding for BF in a really bizarre instance.

[Aric Dunn]

Also to note. large portions of the populations live inland and the elevation rises pretty quick. on the big island most of the population is above 50ft which means higher winds possible the further you go inland...

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN24 KNES 211753
TCSCNP

A. 14E (LANE)

B. 21/1730Z

C. 14.2N

D. 152.6W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.5/S0.0/6HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG, THIS RESULTS
IN AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 AND EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0. DT IS 6.0. MET AND
PT ARE 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 211808

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 21/1731Z

C. 14.25N

D. 152.62W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[Alyono]

EC did make a west shift, turns at the last minute

The east shifts could be done. I was surprised the Euro shifted so east to begin with last night. Now we see if other models start shifting west some.

Dont over hug the euro. If the ec was god, i would have never met my wife as it had a cane in texas when my now wife first came to visit me (eharmony couple)

[galaxy401]

Might be a category 5 now.

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR is flagged, but the flight level winds are up compared to previous pass and the pressure is down. I would give the SFMR credit there and go with 140 kt.

[NotoSans]

Pressure continues to fall and is now likely in the 930mb range. Winds data may not be conclusive for a category 5 upgrade though given the high bias of SFMR winds revealed by recon from last ATL season. Auto-flagging marked the 143KT SFMR suspect as well.

[boulderrr]

18Z

[Yellow Evan]

This is as close as it gets to Cat 5.

[Alyono]

If Oahu gets hit, where will recon fly from? Johnston is too far away. Only place I could think of is Christmas Island

[Yellow Evan]

If Oahu gets hit, where will recon fly from? Johnston is too far away. Only place I could think of is Christmas Island

Johnston makes the most sense. Christmas Island is in the AUS.

[CrazyC83]

If Oahu gets hit, where will recon fly from? Johnston is too far away. Only place I could think of is Christmas Island

Is there a base on the Big Island, i.e. near Hilo? A direct hit track for Oahu would largely spare eastern parts of the Big Island. (A direct hit on the Big Island would likely tear up Lane and weaken it dramatically, probably to a tropical storm, before it can make it to the other islands)

[Alyono]

If Oahu gets hit, where will recon fly from? Johnston is too far away. Only place I could think of is Christmas Island

Johnston makes the most sense. Christmas Island is in the AUS.

there is a Christmas Island south of Hawaii, in the Line Islands