ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[USTropics]

A little off topic, but if 90L acquires a name, this will be 6 out of the last 7 seasons that we have seen an early season system (Arlene - 2017, Bonnie/Alex - 2016, Ana - 2015, Unnamed - 2013, Alberto/Beryl - 2012).

Also, in the past 10 years, there have been 7 systems in April/May (Arthur - May 2008, TD #1 - May 2009, Alberto/Beryl - May 2012, Ana - May 2015, Bonnie - May 2016, Arlene - April 2017). From 1851 to 2007, there were 42 documented storms in April/May.

[Sciencerocks]

[Twisted-core]

Re 2nd podt above.
Don't really see a surface low atm on the above sat-pic's. See a elongated mid-level tilted vort stretching into
the gulf se upto 500mb..

[USTropics]

This is where I'll be looking at first visible satellite images this morning:


Pressure has just slightly fallen in this area as well:


It's also very close to where the ECMWF initialized 90L:

[USTropics]

Carnival Dream Cruise Ship was pretty close to our center:

Code: Select all

Date/time   Position   Naut miles run   Avg speed   Wind from/ knots   Barom   Visib   Wave height   Air temp   Dewpoint   Water temp
2018-May-25 08:00   N 19°12' W 086°24'   42   21.0   150 / 25   1006.9   1.1      25.8   25.5   29.0
2018-May-25 06:00   N 18°30' W 086°24'   60   20.1   160 / 25   1008.2   10.8      26.6   26.0   29.0
2018-May-25 03:00   N 17°30' W 086°30'   66   3.3   150 / 30   1009.8   10.8      28.0   25.2   30.0

https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipp ... call=3ETA7

[USTropics]

Models are finally starting to sort out a center and track it seems, with a cluster of ensembles forming from the 00z suite:

00z GFS ensembles:


00z ECMWF ensembles:

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensemble run showing the highest probability of development to date, nearly 100% probability, for 90L (GFS ensembles also showing 100% probability of development).

00z ECMWF:


00z GFS:

[Nimbus]

The low level center is still under shear from the west, but should be visible near the western edge of convection near the ship location above 19N. The Jet stream still looks pretty far north, so the lower shear forecast for the gulf could verify. Watching the outflow start to expand in the water vapor imagery as the shear eases.

[caneman]

Models shifting east ?

it will all depend on the placement of the upper trough and if it closes off. so far the models have gone back and forth on this upper trough. if it stays open and a sharp trough than we will see more easterly trends do to the shear and a weaker system. if the trough cuts off then more west and a stronger system... only time will tell.

The UKMET isnt really weak. Isnt that about a Cat. 1

[caneman]

Models shifting east ?

it will all depend on the placement of the upper trough and if it closes off. so far the models have gone back and forth on this upper trough. if it stays open and a sharp trough than we will see more easterly trends do to the shear and a weaker system. if the trough cuts off then more west and a stronger system... only time will tell.

The UKMET isnt really weak. Isnt that about a Cat. 1 off the Tampa coast.

[GCANE]

Looks like best window of opportunity of development will be in about 36 hours.

At that point 355K PV with be at a minimum. It increases from there as it approaches the Gulf coast.

[caneman]

Carnival Dream Cruise Ship was pretty close to our center:

Code: Select all

Date/time   Position   Naut miles run   Avg speed   Wind from/ knots   Barom   Visib   Wave height   Air temp   Dewpoint   Water temp
2018-May-25 08:00   N 19°12' W 086°24'   42   21.0   150 / 25   1006.9   1.1      25.8   25.5   29.0
2018-May-25 06:00   N 18°30' W 086°24'   60   20.1   160 / 25   1008.2   10.8      26.6   26.0   29.0
2018-May-25 03:00   N 17°30' W 086°30'   66   3.3   150 / 30   1009.8   10.8      28.0   25.2   30.0

https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipp ... call=3ETA7

I'm not sure how accurate ship reporting is but at least one of the reports shows 30kt. That's pretty close to a T.D. anyone think it gets upgraded at 8 or 11?

[Ian2401]

[northjaxpro]

Carnival Dream Cruise Ship was pretty close to our center:

Code: Select all

Date/time   Position   Naut miles run   Avg speed   Wind from/ knots   Barom   Visib   Wave height   Air temp   Dewpoint   Water temp
2018-May-25 08:00   N 19°12' W 086°24'   42   21.0   150 / 25   1006.9   1.1      25.8   25.5   29.0
2018-May-25 06:00   N 18°30' W 086°24'   60   20.1   160 / 25   1008.2   10.8      26.6   26.0   29.0
2018-May-25 03:00   N 17°30' W 086°30'   66   3.3   150 / 30   1009.8   10.8      28.0   25.2   30.0

https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipp ... call=3ETA7

I'm not sure how accurate ship reporting is but at least one of the reports shows 30kt. That's pretty close to a T.D. anyone think it gets upgraded at 8 or 11?

Not yet. I say potential upgrade will likely occur sometime on Saturday. It may be tomorrow morning at the earliest. Shear is still strong and I still feel there may be a couple of vorticies battling to become one main llc in the short term.

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating to see what we have down there later today.

[USTropics]

Carnival Dream Cruise Ship was pretty close to our center:

Code: Select all

Date/time   Position   Naut miles run   Avg speed   Wind from/ knots   Barom   Visib   Wave height   Air temp   Dewpoint   Water temp
2018-May-25 08:00   N 19°12' W 086°24'   42   21.0   150 / 25   1006.9   1.1      25.8   25.5   29.0
2018-May-25 06:00   N 18°30' W 086°24'   60   20.1   160 / 25   1008.2   10.8      26.6   26.0   29.0
2018-May-25 03:00   N 17°30' W 086°30'   66   3.3   150 / 30   1009.8   10.8      28.0   25.2   30.0

https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipp ... call=3ETA7

I'm not sure how accurate ship reporting is but at least one of the reports shows 30kt. That's pretty close to a T.D. anyone think it gets upgraded at 8 or 11?

I think if visible satellite confirms a closed circulation, and it should be visible on the western side here soon, there is enough substantial evidence in addition to that to upgrade it.

On the other hand, from the NHC's perspective, there's no rush. It's still quite disorganized and sheared. Movement will be slow today, and recon is scheduled to fly later. It's quite possible they will wait for recon to confirm.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241744
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT THU 24 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-003 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 25/1900Z A. 26/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/1700Z C. 26/0915Z
D. 21.7N 87.2W...(LAT CORR.) D. 24.0N 86.8W
E. 25/1830Z TO 25/2300Z E. 26/1100Z TO 26/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS ARE RESUMING
WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED
OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

[Steve H.]

Nah. They will need something close to a closed circulation first.

[cycloneye]

They will decide in the morning if is necessary to send a plane down there but if they go,it will takeoff around 1:00 PM EDT and you can follow the data at the Recon Thread.

[GCANE]

That was a pretty good long-duration convective burst looking at IR.
AMSR2 satellite showed strong rain rate.
Surface pressures dropping nicely across the Yucatan.

[USTropics]

06z GFS isn't far off from the 00z ECMWF operational run.

06z GFS:


00z ECMWF:

[cycloneye]

The last Best Track was at 06Z and the low pressure was at this location.

Location: 19.4°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM