ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[PSUHiker31]

As quickly as it came together, the core falls apart. Odd. Such small cores are not resistant to much. May have sucked up dry air.

It's less organized, but falling apart is a bit extreme. The radar reflectivity in the NE quad is still strong. It became organized so quickly that it was probably unstable and needs some time to reorganize. I imagine we might go through a couple of more pulses like that

[chaser1]

It really is hanging on to the very western edge of the large and moist envelope to the east. It's barely under the W. edge of one upper anticyclone, and the northerly flow aloft not too far away from the large anticyclone over Texas. It does seem to be in a precarious tipping point between rapid intensification and potential annihilation

[floridasun78]

nhc now live facebook

[jlauderdal]

As quickly as it came together, the core falls apart. Odd. Such small cores are not resistant to much. May have sucked up dry air.

It's less organized, but falling apart is a bit extreme. The radar reflectivity in the NE quad is still strong. It became organized so quickly that it was probably unstable and needs some time to reorganize. I imagine we might go through a couple of more pulses like that

i leave for an hour and its doomsday around here, there is still plenty of turning sw of naples..2,96 at the house, 1.04 to go...the ne flank is eroding away but i see some development offshore, 30% chance we get to 4 inches

[Airboy]

Build a bigger eyewall a bit south of the old one? or do I see wrong on radar?

[Cypresso]

5 mile COC?? Such a small core. A small cut-off pinching off to the southwest, really good upper air diffluence and high octane SST's make me think that Gordon may very well come in as a high end Cat. 2 (but a potential for stronger). It seems to be moving rather quick yet in spite of that we're really seeing some pretty impressive vertical alignment beginning to take place. If it significantly slows for a number of hours, we probably will see RI. Honestly, I think we might see some surprising model output at 0Z once initialized with a distinctly deeper storm. Current HWRF showing 993 mb at landfall. I think that's gonna change. With regard to intensity, I'd pay special attention to that model for this event

I just did some runs on this model upon your advice. Impressive.

[Blown Away]

COC breaking down a bit on radar...

[GCANE]

ULL over Cuba falling apart from afternoon popups.
It was feeding moisture into the core.
It may be late tonight when it can tap into TPW from the Carib before it ramps back up.

[MississippiWx]

Can see a true core building in visible loops. How awesome is it that we can watch this thing minute by minute?

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure why the core suddenly formed and then degraded, but I suspect it may have been a little exposed and not able to sustain itself since it was near the edge of the convective canopy and anticyclone aloft. Typhoon Maria had a similar rapid core development earlier this year, but may have been able to sustain itself better since it was much better centered with the rest of the system.

[PSUHiker31]

It's difficult to tell now that the center is headed towards being on the edge of the Key West and Tampa radars, but it appears that the NE part of the "eyewall" is remarkably stable and is now trying to rewrap around the center.

Gordon will definitely need some time to go through this a couple of times. Once its center becomes stable for more than a few hours, we should start to see a greater rate of intensification.

[MississippiWx]

I'm not sure why the core suddenly formed and then degraded, but I suspect it may have been a little exposed and not able to sustain itself since it was near the edge of the convective canopy and anticyclone aloft. Typhoon Maria had a similar rapid core development earlier this year, but may have been able to sustain itself better since it was much better centered with the rest of the system.

Looks like it’s building right back though. Needs a burst of colder cloud tops to help.

[chaser1]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see it gain strength quickly once if moves a little farther west

I think you're right. Overall it appears to have been tracking nearly NNW in the short term but on the broad scale picture if you look at the entire envelope of the system I'd say that as a whole there may still be a little bit of vertical re-alignment occurring and that the center should probably become better embedded within the broader envelope still over land. Large scale flow should kick Gordon more to the west within a few hours and yeah, I'd think we'll see a pretty steady upswing in pressure drop. How the more northward motion that has occurred will effect it's ultimate point of landfall is yet to be known. One would think that perhaps there's an increased threat to the W. Florida panhandle but then again perhaps the models will identify a deeper system that might be carried a bit more westward under a fairly stout S.E. Conus 500mb ridge.

[fwbbreeze]

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure why the core suddenly formed and then degraded, but I suspect it may have been a little exposed and not able to sustain itself since it was near the edge of the convective canopy and anticyclone aloft. Typhoon Maria had a similar rapid core development earlier this year, but may have been able to sustain itself better since it was much better centered with the rest of the system.

Looks like it’s building right back though. Needs a burst of colder cloud tops to help.

It's certainly trying, but the center remains on the south side of the main convective tops and on the west side of the system overall. When looking at water vapor imagery, an upper level low can be seen just of the NW coast of Cuba. This is bringing some southerly shear over Gordon and may keep the system in check, at least for now.

[chaser1]

I'm not sure why the core suddenly formed and then degraded, but I suspect it may have been a little exposed and not able to sustain itself since it was near the edge of the convective canopy and anticyclone aloft. Typhoon Maria had a similar rapid core development earlier this year, but may have been able to sustain itself better since it was much better centered with the rest of the system.

You beat me too it, lol. Looks to be betting a bit better tucked into and under the westward expanding upper high. Boy, this is like watching one single play of football over hours of time; Where the QB is dropping back to pass and eventually the ball is end-zone launched yet minutes and hours go by waiting to see whether the ball was caught or dropped

[Steve]

Sitting in what I think is a gradient band between the high and the low that moved inland off the NW gulf. Storms are lined up SE/NW and moving west. Obviously not super dry to the NW of the track. Follow the flow tomorrow for hints at landfall.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[Dean4Storms]

You have to wonder if the drag of the winds coming over the Peninsula along with that ULL to its SW is not causing it to ride on a more NNW course.

[SunnyThoughts]

You have to wonder if the drag of the winds coming over the Peninsula along with that ULL to its SW is not causing it to ride on a more NNW course.

I was wondering that as well. For a storm which has supposedly been moving 16 mph for hours now...sure hasn't seemed to move very much imo.

[bella_may]

Hurricane tracker app:
The Hurricane Hunters continue to find signs of a developing eyewall. Aircraft reconnaissance has measured winds of about 60 mph. #Gordon