ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#921 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:27 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:One year later, and my brain has totally gone to mush. Please remind me what time the 0z models will start rolling.


GFS initializes anytime now. The 00z NAM didn’t change much if any from prior runs.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#922 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:29 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:One year later, and my brain has totally gone to mush. Please remind me what time the 0z models will start rolling.


GFS initializes anytime now. The 00z NAM didn’t change much if any from prior runs.



Cool! Brain isn't as mush as I thought. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#923 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:43 pm

00z GFS, slightly NE of 18z, starts W at @42hrs...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#924 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:44 pm

Ridge seems stronger through 42hrs on the 0zGFS
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#925 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:45 pm

Ridge is stronger than the previous run, which was stronger than the previous run...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#926 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:47 pm

Didn't a couple runs yesterday have her start heading wsw because of the strong high to the north? Are we starting to see this again at the 42 hour mark?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#927 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:48 pm

00z GFS... From 24 hrs to so far 60 hrs, due West...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#928 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:56 pm

Trap door is going to close again.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#929 Postby Cypresso » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:56 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z GFS, slightly NE of 18z, starts W at @42hrs...


Thanks for the heads up. Just ran the model myself. Interesting.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#930 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:59 pm

Is that a nnw turn at 90 hours?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#931 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:59 pm

Through 90hrs of the 0z GFS Florence is a touch further north but is also further west
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#932 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:00 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Through 90hrs of the 0z GFS Florence is a touch further north but is also further west

It is a bit faster.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#933 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:00 pm

This should recurve heading nw at 96hrs
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#934 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:01 pm

Looks like running east of Bermuda
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#935 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:This should recurve heading nw at 96hrs


Let the run finish, at least...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#936 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:03 pm

More ridge on 00z @102 hrs...
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#937 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:04 pm

I don't see any major change in the overall patterns yet. Pretty much identical to the previous runs so far.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#938 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:04 pm

SFLcane wrote:This should recurve heading nw at 96hrs

The trap door is closed... This might come close to land again. Especially Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#939 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:09 pm

One thing I’m noticing is that these high pressures are staying pretty far north up in the Atlantic and they aren’t really dropping south. That could play a big factor.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#940 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:10 pm

Looks like a sub 922mb direct hit on Bermuda as it moves due west under the ridge building in.
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