ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

Wind speed is never an issue if a disturbance qualifies as a TD or not. You need to have persistent, organized convection and a closed low-level center of circulation. Until this point, we haven't had one well-defined center of circulation with persistent organized convection. It appears that may no longer be the case.

[Frank P]

Euro has been one of the most consistent model overall in its track of 90L over the past 3-4 days... basically between SELA and the MS/AL line... about a 100 mile difference... Not bad overall.. doesn’t mean it won’t change, but I have to give it a good grade for consistency thus far...

[kevin mathis]

I hope 90L is not too much of a nuisance when all is said and done and with it being Memorial Day weekend and as we give our thanks and remembrances to the fallen.

AMEN...Just in case the weekend becomes hectic with Tropical Storm chatter....Thank you to all that serve currently, have served and especially to those who paid the ultimate sacrifice defending the greatest experiment of democracy the world has ever known.

[Florida1118]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just
east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has become better defined
overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become
better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily
become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much
of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. This
system could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late this weekend or early
next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office,
and see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
for information on gale warnings associated with this system. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 200 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[jaxfladude]

Question will classification earlier than thought mean stronger system in time?

Carnival cruise ship showed near T.D. winds but no idea how reliable they consider that.

Buoy near the deep convection has been reporting 29 mph sustained winds with gusts to 35 mph, good enough for an upgrade if visible satellite this morning confirms an LLC.

NDG, yeah NHC may classify TD with that ship report. We will see.

[GCANE]

F16 data just came in.
Also showing off-scale rain rate on 85GHz.
Strong pink on 37GHz.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like a possible repeat. Will even bear the same name!

Hurricane Alberto 2006
(Correction I see it was downgraded over the years to a Tropical Storm. At the time in 2006 they called it a cane)

[NDG]

First very few pictures of a zoomed in vis sat loop indicates to me that it still does not have a well defined LLC, I see a couple of eddies rotating around a larger circulation, but is a closed circulation.

[PSUHiker31]

00Z Euro almost identical to 12Z. Looks like focus is coming in to the Alabama coastline

[northjaxpro]

I hope 90L is not too much of a nuisance when all is said and done and with it being Memorial Day weekend and as we give our thanks and remembrances to the fallen.

AMEN...Just in case the weekend becomes hectic with Tropical Storm chatter....Thank you to all that serve currently, have served and especially to those who paid the ultimate sacrifice defending the greatest experiment of democracy the world has ever known.

Amen! Well said. We honor all of our men and women who have served our great country and their given their lives with the ultimate sacrifice.

[canefan]

That Nam 3km tho

[NotSparta]

I'm not too sure a tropical cyclone is developing right now. That squall line doesn't look so tropical, maybe this is a subtropical cyclone?

[robbielyn]

Looks like a possible repeat. Will even bear the same name!

Hurricane Alberto 2006
(Correction I see it was downgraded over the years to a Tropical Storm. At the time in 2006 they called it a cane)

they hv this going west towards mobile not east like 2006 so not a repeat

[northjaxpro]

No upgrade this morning by NHC per STO just released. I will stick by what I said earlier that an upgrade will be Saturday morning at the earliest.

[NDG]

I'm not too sure a tropical cyclone is developing right now. That squall line doesn't look so tropical, maybe this is a subtropical cyclone?

Typical look to a sheared sheared tropical system, it has nothing subtropical to it this morning, IMO.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro



6Z GFS

[tolakram]

Floater just moved over 90L

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-6-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

[NotSparta]

I'm not too sure a tropical cyclone is developing right now. That squall line doesn't look so tropical, maybe this is a subtropical cyclone?

Typical look to a sheared sheared tropical system, it has nothing subtropical to it this morning, IMO.

Chalk it up to inexperience , but do sheared TSs usually have that squall line "tail"?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like a possible repeat. Will even bear the same name!

Hurricane Alberto 2006
(Correction I see it was downgraded over the years to a Tropical Storm. At the time in 2006 they called it a cane)

they hv this going west towards mobile not east like 2006 so not a repeat

We will see where the chips fall. Models will sway yet.

[GCANE]

Impressive looking vort ring on visible.