ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#941 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:14 pm

I was wrong. Not east of Bermuda. Poor Bermuda on this run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#942 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:14 pm

919 mb strike as it continues to move NW to the east coast. @144 hrs.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#943 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:14 pm

Florence just nailed with some pretty heavy shear. nearly opened up the SW eye in like a 4 hour period. should weaken a good deal. that may help it turn sooner.

anyone check the intensity on the UKMET. did it have a weaker hurricane ?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#944 Postby PandaCitrus » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:15 pm

Bad run for Bermuda. NNW at 153 hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#945 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:17 pm

CMC looks like a NC hit this run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#946 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Florence just nailed with some pretty heavy shear. nearly opened up the SW eye in like a 4 hour period. should weaken a good deal. that may help it turn sooner.

anyone check the intensity on the UKMET. did it have a weaker hurricane ?


Why would it turn sooner to the N if it is weaker?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#947 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:18 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Florence just nailed with some pretty heavy shear. nearly opened up the SW eye in like a 4 hour period. should weaken a good deal. that may help it turn sooner.

anyone check the intensity on the UKMET. did it have a weaker hurricane ?


Why would it turn sooner to the N if it is weaker?


to the west not north..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#948 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:18 pm

Image

Image

Plenty of unseasonably warm water to support a significant storm. Especially near thr coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#949 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:18 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:CMC looks like a NC hit this run.

These models just did not back down on this scenario today. Hopefully, that changes.
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#950 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Florence just nailed with some pretty heavy shear. nearly opened up the SW eye in like a 4 hour period. should weaken a good deal. that may help it turn sooner.

anyone check the intensity on the UKMET. did it have a weaker hurricane ?


Why would it turn sooner to the N if it is weaker?


to the west not north..


Oh, okay thanks.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#951 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:18 pm

Looks like that high that is hanging out over New York and bringing all the heat is betraying them and moving out. Leaving a weakness for Florence to go into. If it doesn't recurve, this run looks like it could be bad for them again.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#952 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Florence just nailed with some pretty heavy shear. nearly opened up the SW eye in like a 4 hour period. should weaken a good deal. that may help it turn sooner.

anyone check the intensity on the UKMET. did it have a weaker hurricane ?


Yes it did on the 12z run
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#953 Postby PandaCitrus » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:21 pm

Making a bee line for NY and New England at 171 hours.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#954 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:22 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:CMC looks like a NC hit this run.


There’s a lot more ridging on the CMC compared to the GFS.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#955 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:23 pm

New 0z UKMET ends at 25N 73W moving due west

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#956 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:24 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:New 0z UKMET ends at 25N 73W moving due west

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots


anyone the ukmet intensity for 00z ?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#957 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:24 pm

Oh, so it's going to be one of those pure horror runs, then. Good thing it's still 174 hours out.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#958 Postby PandaCitrus » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:24 pm

New 0z UKMET ends at 25N 73W moving due west


UKMET is basically a Hurricane Andrew Part II scenario.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#959 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:25 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:New 0z UKMET ends at 25N 73W moving due west

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots


Woah.... :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#960 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:26 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Oh, so it's going to be one of those pure horror runs, then.

This may be if the GFS is right the worst hurricane New England has seen since 1938 but as always this solution could change
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