ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.

It's an upper level low producing some convection. I't getting stretched se to nw now and will lose its identity within the next 24 hours. Should not have any effect on Michael other than keeping the environment moist ahead of it.

Looks to be a leading edge of some deep surface to mid level surge as well. As you said Pete, no way any convection could even try to maintain any level of organization as it approaches Michael's outflow. Still, I'm wondering if this convergent low level flow might just further act as an additional catalyst for some decent squalls to come ashore along the S. Florida coastline and even up to the Cape tonight through Thursday, as it interacts with the stronger southerly flow ahead of Michael (and eventually westward offshore flow from Michael as it passes north of that latitude)?

[Emmett_Brown]

I know it sounds obvious, but the next 24 hrs are make or break for the forecast track. The models are in better agreement about the forward speed of Michael. Michael will need to accelerate significantly tomorrow for the track to pan out. A simple benchmark to keep tabs on the forward speed will be whether Micheal reaches the vicinity of 25N by noon tomorrow.

A slower track could mean a further turn to the NE before landfall, or even having the trough bass by and leave Micheal meandering in the NE GOM. This is now becoming less likely, assuming he keeps gradually accelerating as the models and NHC predict.

We now enter more of a nowcast mode for landfall, comparing the official track to the actual observed motion, while warily watching the water vapor for the forward speed and orientation of the trough.

[Michele B]

Rick Scott live presser on TWC

I only heard him say many counties declared emergency status (can't remember the exact words, there's lots going on here all at once!); didn't hear how many.

Can someone tell me where there is a list of the affected counties?

[GBPackMan]

flat like florida, zero effect on inflow and off to the gulf

May be true about the rest of Florida, but the panhandle has the highest point in the state (a whopping 345ft ASL) which is less than an hours drive from the coast (approx 45-50 miles). Where the storm surge may have a greater impact on the rest of the state, the western panhandle has a much greater elevation increase meaning much less land area affected. Granted the big bend area is primarily uninhabited swamp land, the coastal towns will still likely see water a foot or two deep throughout most of town.

So, you are discounting the NWS products showing surge of up to 12 feet in some areas?
For: Coastal Wakulla County

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Saint Marks
- Panacea

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening and
historic storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for
8-12 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone
areas
- Window of concern: Begins Tuesday morning

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

Not discounting anything, some areas have a much shallower shelf extending offshore which means better chance of deeper storm surge in some areas, such as the area east of Apalachicola in the bend. West of Apalachicola along that western panhandle edge has a much more pronounced drop off into the Gulf which means even if the storm remains tracking a bit west, closer to Pensacola, the storm surge will still be worse east of Apalachicola than it would in say Panama City, and the inland river surges will also be worse east of PC than it would closer in to the (potential) storm landfall.

[artist]

Rick Scott live presser on TWC

I only heard him say many counties declared emergency status (can't remember the exact words, there's lots going on here all at once!); didn't hear how many.

Can someone tell me where there is a list of the affected counties?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/i ... 1609.shtml?

[MacTavish]

When is the next recon supposed to be in the storm?

[supercane4867]

Eyewall wide open to the NW. Still have some work to do.

[Michele B]

Rick Scott live presser on TWC

I only heard him say many counties declared emergency status (can't remember the exact words, there's lots going on here all at once!); didn't hear how many.

Can someone tell me where there is a list of the affected counties?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/i ... 1609.shtml?

Thanks, artist!

[jdjaguar]

For: Coastal Wakulla County

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Saint Marks
- Panacea

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening and
historic storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for
8-12 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone
areas
- Window of concern: Begins Tuesday morning

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

I have good friends in Panacea...

[craptacular]

I see recon had mission 3 and mission 5. What happened to 4?

#4 was a mission to deploy buoys in front of the storm. According to the schedule, they are probably still out there.

When's the next flight scheduled, this evening or overnight?

Should be a pair of low-level invests (one NOAA and one Air Force) heading there soon ... actually one should have taken off 15 minutes ago. Scheduled to leave at 4pm EDT and 5:30pm EDT, with first center fixes coming around 6:30pm EDT.

Edit: #6 (the NOAA plane) did just take off from Lakeland, FL.

[BobHarlem]

could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.

You weren't the only one:

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1049392582407671814

[psyclone]

Michael looks large, loose and kind of sloppy to me. No doubt it's a fighter but it has a lot to fight with shear and dry air. OTOH it has made a great deal of progress in the past 24 hours in the face of such obstacles. I'm not convinced of a cat 3 landfall but I certainly wouldn't gamble on that ultimately being correct. A storm of consequence is on the way for the panhandle. Florence just showed us that even if a storm lands at less than the anticipated intensity it can still be a memorable and destructive event.

[Dave C]

Eyewall wide open to the NW. Still have some work to do.

https://i.imgur.com/hcY0hQC.jpg

You can see on the latest visible loop that the convection is wrapping around the north side trying to close the gap to complete the eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The rapid and sudden buildup of this storm very much reminds me of Harvey. Feels like Michael very much came out of nowhere and will leave an impact that'll be remembered.

[GBPackMan]

Intensity is dropping some for the models that just released their 18z runs:

compared to the 12z runs:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Intensity is dropping some for the models that just released their 18z runs:

https://imgur.com/OnwkNcs

compared to the 12z runs:

https://imgur.com/ENW4YVt

Wouldn't read too much into that; the intensity models have consistently low-balled this storm.

[ozonepete]

Am I smoking crack or us that front already off Texas? It looks like the wind flow there is now SW to NE in looking at water vapor.
Has the NOAA jet but out to sample upper air environment, if not, when? Thanks

The cold front is currently draped across SW and Southern Kansas. No front along the Texas Coast.

srainhoutex on the money.

WV satellite loops show mostly upper level water vapor and are good for showing mid to upper level troughs or ridges but don't show surface fronts at all.

[blp]

Let's see if she jogs NW as per the models in the next few hours or does she keep more North.

[GBPackMan]

Intensity is dropping some for the models that just released their 18z runs:

https://imgur.com/OnwkNcs

compared to the 12z runs:

https://imgur.com/ENW4YVt

Wouldn't read too much into that; the intensity models have consistently low-balled this storm.

Easy to do when it is just a gaggle of thunderstorms, but once it actually forms into something is when the models start to do their job properly. This is why some work great for hurricanes but can't predict a likely area of non-tropical thunderstorm formation. I still see way too much cooler air making its way in as it gets closer to the panhandle to have this intensify much beyond a weak Cat 2 24-36h out.

[wxman57]

https://i.postimg.cc/SK1P8Pvj/0818684_C-645_D-4_C0_C-82_A4-_D1121_C636_F41.png

Note that this storm surge graphic is not specific to Michael. It's sort of like the SLOSH map I posted - a worst case if Michael should hit a particular location. The NHC will begin productions of probabilistic storm-surge inundation graphics once Michael is within 36 hours of landfall.