ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z suite.

[gatorcane]

Like I said earlier this morning, the visible eddy/LLC is rotating around a larger circulation this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/sIZzOTo.gif

Could be but if that LLC becomes the dominant center, models like the UKMET, which show ESE movement the next 24 hour,s would bring the system closer to the FL peninsula downstream.

[cycloneye]

Boom.

@ToddKimberlain
45-kt ship report with 1007 mb east of the low pressure system near the east coast of the Yucatan would implies a 1003 mb central pressure. Winds probably are a little high, but with closed circulation already and organized deep convection, looks like a bona fide TC #90L



 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/999991717678940161

[gatorcane]

XTRP shows ESE movement:

[NotSparta]

Best track says 90L is a subtropical storm.

AL, 90, 2018052512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 870W, 35, 1005, SS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902018.dat

[boca]

Updated WPC 7 day rainfall totals

SFLcane what are those totals for our area along the SE coast it was too small to see clearly.

[nativefloridian]

Updated WPC 7 day rainfall totals

SFLcane what are those totals for our area along the SE coast it was too small to see clearly.

Boca....when I clicked on the pic it got larger. Shows 5.0" - 7.5" along east coast from about Martin County south to Dade County.

[Kazmit]

I think there's a good chance 90L will become Alberto at 11.

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity east of Belize over open water and getting stronger:

[GCANE]

A new line of thunderstorms are starting to pop over Cozumel and going south.
I expect updraft from those could create more vorts.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

987MB is what..a weak Cat 1 Territory??

Its impossible for these storms to get crazy strong cat- 2,3 in may correct?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/999749087472902144

[Evil Jeremy]

First NHC cone (at 11am I expect) will be very interesting. The GTWO circle has been 'pointed' to the Panhandle for the past few days, even when the models were further west than they sit now. The GTWO isn't designed to show a curved path either.

It's worth noting that a couple days ago, almost every model outside the GFS family had this pegged as forming off the Yucatan's north coast, not it's east coast.

[SouthDadeFish]

I really don't like the subtropical classification here. Just because it is a trough interaction case doesn't mean it is subtropical.

[StruThiO]

may rustle some jimmies for sure. Let's all just be thankful we'll have a named system

[chaser1]

987MB is what..a weak Cat 1 Territory??

Its impossible for these storms to get crazy strong cat- 2,3 in may correct?

Forgetting that it's May and given the present fairly high pressure field to the north and east..... a small tight core Tropical Cyclone could potentially approach strong Cat. 1 to possibly Cat 2 intensity. Still, its a bit hard to imagine upper level conditions becoming quite ideal enough to prevent some continued level of SSW shear to impact it. I suppose we could see a legit minimal hurricane albeit with a fairly small and right front quadrant wind field of peak winds. Brisk to T.S. force winds however might potentially spread over a fairly large "north to south" fetch east of center. A lot really falls on how soon a co-located and vertically stacked low level center is able to be maintained once the parent mid level begins to finally feel that northward tug and begins moving pole-ward. Otherwise, the outcome will be yet another vigorous mid level system with a lot of accompanied precip, with a less then vertically stacked and stretched north to south low attempting to reform as convection continues to fight stout upper level southwesterly winds. All in all, I think a Cat. 2 is not impossible providing a small core system somehow finds that Goldie-lox spot. I think a strong T.S. with gusts to hurricane force still remains this systems ceiling though.

[txwatcher91]

987MB is what..a weak Cat 1 Territory??

Its impossible for these storms to get crazy strong cat- 2,3 in may correct?

Not impossible with the waters as warm as they are but changes of a cat 2-3 aren't high. It's never happened in May, at least as far back as reliable records go, but that doesn't mean it can't happen or hasn't in the past either. A cat 1 hurricane is definitely a possibility though and all depends on how quickly this organizes and if shear lets up or continues to blast it.

[wxman57]

Could be some TS winds in those squalls over the NW Caribbean, but there's still no well-defined LLC. That little swirl you can see on the satellite loops is a small vortex that is heading off to the southeast. Tropical waves often produce tropical storm-force winds.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1000014433710682115

[cycloneye]

Ramsdis floater.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12