chaser1 wrote:ozonepete wrote:SEASON_CANCELED wrote:could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.
It's an upper level low producing some convection. I't getting stretched se to nw now and will lose its identity within the next 24 hours. Should not have any effect on Michael other than keeping the environment moist ahead of it.
Looks to be a leading edge of some deep surface to mid level surge as well. As you said Pete, no way any convection could even try to maintain any level of organization as it approaches Michael's outflow. Still, I'm wondering if this convergent low level flow might just further act as an additional catalyst for some decent squalls to come ashore along the S. Florida coastline and even up to the Cape tonight through Thursday, as it interacts with the stronger southerly flow ahead of Michael (and eventually westward offshore flow from Michael as it passes north of that latitude)?
Hey chase.
ULL's out over the ocean there always have some good upper level divergence somewhere in them and will produce convection anytime they get some convergence underneath. What caused convergence there is not clear - I wasn't following low level features there the last few days. Anyway it looks to me like this will start to fade as it's stretching since the stretching will reduce the upper level divergence. Also it looks like it will not come close enough to Florida before it fades to produce any significant squalls there. Just my initial take.
