ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like a developing TC to me. Give it another day or three.

One day vs three has implications for that stick of land in the middle. No one should be surprised by a vigorous tropical wave organizing in the Bahamas in early September, but I do feel like the NHC has been behind the 8-ball with 91L, at least in regards to possible impacts in Florida.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd go with 70/80 for the 2:00 PM TWO based on the current organization trends.

[MississippiWx]

Wow. I’m impressed with the look this morning. Much better circulation. Shear looks to have declined considerably.

[psyclone]

Looks like a developing TC to me. Give it another day or three.

One day vs three has implications for that stick of land in the middle. No one should be surprised by a vigorous tropical wave organizing in the Bahamas in early September, but I do feel like the NHC has been behind the 8-ball with 91L, at least in regards to possible impacts in Florida.

It's worth keeping in mind that the sensible wx impacts for a vigorous disturbance vs depression vs low end TS are pretty similar. Looks like a gusty, squally, wet and less than ideal Labor day is on tap. At least it will keep a lid on temps.

[Bocadude85]

Systems like this can spin up much quicker then models indicate, TS Julia in 2016 is a good example. Went from a few thundershowers to a landfalling TS in Florida in something like 18 hours.

[KatDaddy]

Looking better this morning. Hoping Invest 91L stays away from SE TX and SW LA not that I want any else to have deal with it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe this is already a TD and on its way to a TS by tomorrow morning. It is organizing quite well, and shear looks to have disappeared as shown below:

[Frank P]

not sure if it has been mentioned but latest UKMO has going into SELA at D3 then westward D4... yesterday it was extreme STX, then middle TX coast... quite a shift east...

[tropicwatch]

No ASCAT yet but here are satellite estimated wind speeds from a couple of hours ago.

[SoupBone]

not sure if it has been mentioned but latest UKMO has going into SELA at D3 then westward D4... yesterday it was extreme STX, then middle TX coast... quite a shift east...

It's why I've been asking about the GFS vs Euro on the final outcome. The models seem to agree on a SE Louisiana initial landfall, but then after that, it's either off the the NE quickly or meandering toward SE Texas. Though last night's Euro precip forecast was significantly much less than the previous run.

12Z GFS has begun.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like a developing TC to me. Give it another day or three.

One day vs three has implications for that stick of land in the middle. No one should be surprised by a vigorous tropical wave organizing in the Bahamas in early September, but I do feel like the NHC has been behind the 8-ball with 91L, at least in regards to possible impacts in Florida.

It's worth keeping in mind that the sensible wx impacts for a vigorous disturbance vs depression vs low end TS are pretty similar. Looks like a gusty, squally, wet and less than ideal Labor day is on tap. At least it will keep a lid on temps.

You know that, and I know that, but common people celebrating Labor Day might put in extra caution for a TD or TS than a wave, even if the impacts are the same. And if this does spin up before Florida, as it is attempting to do, some people will be frustrated with lack of prior warning.

[MississippiWx]

Watching the southwest portion of 91L. The eastern side has strong inflow from the south across Cuba. This could be a time where land friction helps consolidate the low as northerly winds come south and butt up against the high Cuban terrain. The winds then get forced to the east, and help tighten the circulation. We shall see.

[Clearcloudz]

ECMWF and UKMET both have a solution where they want to take the storm into Louisiana and then into Texas.

[SoupBone]

ECMWF and UKMET both have a solution where they want to take the storm into Louisiana and then into Texas.

The Euro, in that graphic, has it circling around the Dallas/Ft. Worth area then Houston for a bit, then up and out.

[blp]

Not yet closed but much improved 850mb vorticity. I think it will close off later this afternoon.

11:00am

[tarheelprogrammer]

When is recon scheduled for this invest?

[WAcyclone]

Still an open wave based on ASCAT:

[tropicwatch]

Still an open wave based on ASCAT:

Missed that somehow

[jlauderdal]

Do you have evidence of an llc?

I believe this is already a TD and on its way to a TS by tomorrow morning. It is organizing quite well, and shear looks to have disappeared as shown below:

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[northjaxpro]

91L is most definitely improving its structure on satellite imagery. It is quickly ccoming together and personally, I am getting an uneasy feeling about this system. I certainly hope everyone is paying close attention hopefully, especially in the Keys and extreme South Florida.

The Gulf Coast will have this to worry about during this upcoming week later on..