WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Damn a near Cat 5.

[1900hurricane]

Text version of the warning:

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060221ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 168.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 168.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.8N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.3N 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.7N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.7N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.0N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.8N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.3N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 167.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, RMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 060230).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Short and simple.

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216
NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, RMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH OVERSHOOTING
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. FORMATIVE BANDS,
ALBEIT SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED, ARE CLEARLY SPIRALING INTO A WEAK BUT
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS IS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD
CHANNEL TOWARD A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30-32 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, IT WILL FLATTEN
TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR BUILDS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL PREVAIL AND PROMOTE A
HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION; BY TAU 72, AT
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF GUAM, TD 26W WILL REACH 75 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 26W WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD UP TO
TAU 96. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER GUAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU 108. AN INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONCURRENT WITH THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK, IN ADDITION
TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WILL FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 120, TD 26W WILL REACH SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY AT 135 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TOWARD THE EXTENDED TAUS. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INITIAL ERRATIC MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
CYCLONES, THERE IS - FOR NOW - LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Whoaow, Possible super direct hit on Guam.



Classic WPAC super typhoon in the making.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

[euro6208]

TCHP not only deep but covers a large area and increases near Guam.

[Highteeld]

[Guamphoon]

Where did this storm come from? Here I am minding my own business and I get a JTWC track showing a direct hit to Guam. Time to start catching up on this.

[euro6208]

Those bands are crazy. Won't be surprise if this is already a TS.

[euro6208]

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Enewetak

[1900hurricane]

Heh, reminds me of the one I put out on Twitter earlier.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1037888539571224576

[1900hurricane]

Latest microwave imagery shows the developing structure.

[1900hurricane]

TD
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 7 September 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 7 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°10' (12.2°)
E166°20' (166.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°20' (13.3°)
E163°50' (163.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05' (14.1°)
E160°55' (160.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[Kingarabian]

Those bands are crazy. Won't be surprise if this is already a TS.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/5H4up4Z.gif[img]

Destined for beastieness.

[mrbagyo]

EPS still showing Taiwan but Northern Luzon should not let their guards down anytime soon.

[euro6208]

High end Cat 3.



WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
185 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF UTIRIK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY FOLLOWING SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI). ADDITIONALLY, A 070450Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
(KTS) IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF 25
KTS. TD 26W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (30-31 CELSIUS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING TD 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. FOR THIS PERIOD, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH A TIGHTLY GROUPED COLLECTION OF MODEL TRACKS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD AND TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSITY FASTER THAN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, REACHING 80 KTS BY TAU 72, A RATE THAT IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON A SPREAD OF
140 NM AT TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS GOOD FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STR TO RE-
ORIENT AND TD 26W WILL TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER, OR VERY CLOSE TO GUAM, AROUND TAU
96 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 110 KTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THE
TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. AROUND TAU 72, THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE AS HWRF MAINTAINS THE
INTENSITY AT 115 KTS WHILE COAMPS-GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO 135 KTS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE MORE INTENSE COAMPS-GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACKS PORTRAYED BY THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS FAIR DUE
TO RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

HWRF IR and radar simulation, about 4 days from now.

[euro6208]

UKMET continues to show a worrying scenario for Guam. Bolded is before and after the direct hit.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2018



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 167.4E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 07.09.2018 12.6N 167.4E WEAK

12UTC 07.09.2018 13.1N 165.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2018 14.5N 163.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2018 15.0N 159.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2018 14.8N 154.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2018 14.2N 151.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2018 13.6N 148.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2018 13.1N 145.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2018 13.4N 143.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 141.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.09.2018 15.0N 139.0E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2018 15.8N 136.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.09.2018 16.7N 134.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[euro6208]

FEMA arriving this Saturday and expecting the worst typhoon since STY Pongsona back in 2002. Went around today i was surprised at the level of activity. Long lines of people gassing up their cars and stocking up on items at the stores/supermarts. Here i thought i was the most prepared one here. The power of media.

Home Depot from PNC.

[euro6208]

Relying too much on dvorak. If we had recon, this should be a moderate TS now.