ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#61 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:22 am

Very nice continuous hot tower firing at DMAX, obvious from the cirrus layering.
Outflow apparent on the north quad.
Just to the north of the CoC

storm4u · #62 Postby **storm4u** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:25 am

Let's see if it continues today

#63 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:27 am

Anti-cyclone right over the top of this.
Zero shear.

#64 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:33 am

Yeah, it has a chance to spin up a bit. 98L continues over a dry environment, however. The key is if it can sustain the convection today. The EURO run from late yesterday had this system getting rather close to the NC Outer Banks later this week.

#65 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:18 am

Another short-duration tower firing nearly west of the CoC and closing in.

#66 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:21 am

Definitely ramping up now. Clearly at least partially closed LLC getting under the convection burst. The LLC Could quite possibly be closed off now. The upper level anticyclone that GCANE pointed out is surely helping and could keep the convection firing all day even though we're past DMAX.

#67 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:49 am

Lots of swirl in those low-level clouds. Looks very close to a closed circulation now.

emeraldislenc · #68 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:51 am

So how close will it come to NC?

tomatkins · #69 Postby **tomatkins** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:22 am

emeraldislenc wrote:So how close will it come to NC?

GFS and Euro both have it skirting the outer banks (or rather, what small amount of vorticity remains on Wednesday morning, since neither sees it developing)

#70 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:32 am

Model consensus, per NCAR, is trending to TS near NC coast on Wednesday morning.

#71 Postby **xironman** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:59 am

So would this be Florence 2.0? Florence was basically absorbed into mid latitude systems which left over this spin as a artifact. I guess they will discuss post season.

hurricanedude · #72 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:03 am

Where exactly is the estimated center?

#73 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:08 am

Strong rain-rate cell captured earlier this morning.
Should contribute to warming the core.

#74 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:11 am

Recon being tasked

208
NOUS42 KNHC 241548
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/2100Z A. 26/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0114A CYCLONE
C. 25/1830Z C. 26/0300Z
D. 25/2030Z TO 26/0030Z D. 26/0500Z TO 26/1130Z
E. 32.5N 76.7W E. 34.0N 76.3W
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS AND
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION KIRK FOR 26/1500Z NEAR 11.8N 54.0W.

#75 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:15 am

This thing whatever it is, is making no sense. It will probably meet the guillotine sometime on Wednesday, but will it be already strong enough to cause a stir. Next, I thought for sure this would be an east weighted mess not really bothering anyone. Instead it seems for the moment that it is north and west weighted which of course means it could graze the NC coast with winds and rain. Finally, it seems to be really expanding (only for the moment). I’m hoping that it will all dissipate by morning, after all Kirk seems to have met its maker. Leslie is just going to spin around and not bother anyone.
Now we just need to find a good exorcist to get rid of the spawn of Florence.

#76 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:25 am

Convection firing to the north and west of the CoC seems to be filling in the low-level dry slot.
Wondering if we may be in for a bit of a surprise.

#77 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:28 am

hurricanedude wrote:Where exactly is the estimated center?

Here's a CIMSS fix from 10:45 AM but I think it's an older fix. LLC should be a little wnw or northwest of there.

#78 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:31 am

xironman wrote:So would this be Florence 2.0? Florence was basically absorbed into mid latitude systems which left over this spin as a artifact. I guess they will discuss post season.

I just confirmed yesterday with someone from NHC that if they feel that any remnant of Florence can be traced to this circulation then it gets called Florence again. They should be having a hot debate about it right around now. :wink:

#79 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:32 am

High convergent CAPE air feeding this.

emeraldislenc · #80 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:34 am

Could this reach tropical storm strength?

ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

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