WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#181 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:49 pm

Eye temp has been hovering above 22°C for more than 10 consecutive hour now - rare feat.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#182 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:50 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A 15 NM ROUND EYE IN THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES, AND BELOW
THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T7.5 (155 KTS). WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS LOW (5-10 KTS), THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH
HAS WEAKENED. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLY
ONGOING, BASED ON A FORMATIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL AND MOAT FEATURE IN
A 012153Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM
WEAKENING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. STY 30W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVES WESTWARD AND IS NO
LONGER ENHANCING OUTFLOW. THE POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
MAY ALSO LEAD TO SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS, WITH INITIAL
WEAKENING AND LATER STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AS THE PRIMARY EYEWALL
IS STARVED OF INFLOW THEN THE SECONDARY EYEWALL CONTRACTS.
ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 24, STY 30W WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
COOLER (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUBOPTIMAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT THAT WAS CHURNED UP BY THE QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD OF STY
28W SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR, CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING TREND.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH 100 NM OF
SPREAD BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE STR
AXIS, TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120, ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL
MODELS VARY GREATLY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE RECURVE. NAVGEM IS STILL THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER, THOUGH IT
HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ECMWF AND GALWEM
ARE ALSO WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING LONGER TO
COMPLETE THE RECURVE. HWRF, COAMPS-GFS, AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE TO
THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREDICT A TIGHTER
RECURVE, AND ALSO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN AT TAU 120. THE MAJOR VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS ARE IN TRACK
SPEED. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. BEFORE TAU 96, STY 30W WILL MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS
BELOW 26C, WHILE A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER MANCHURIA,
ALLOWING STY 30W TO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND AGAIN
DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL
SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA,
COOLER SSTS, AND HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PROVIDING AN
OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AT TAU 120, AS STY 30W
ACCELERATES POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, IT
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE
LATE TERM IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ALONG-TRACK MODEL SPREAD OF 970 NM BY TAU 120,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#183 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:35 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#184 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:09 am

Estimates continue to be impressive especially SATCON and AMSU. Wakala doesn't hold a grudge against Kong-rey.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10020028
SATCON: MSLP = 904 hPa MSW = 157 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 151.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 141 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 913 hPa 143 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT020310
CIMSS AMSU: 898 hPa 161 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10020028
ATMS: 960.0 hPa 90.2 knots Date: 09301640
SSMIS: 910.0 hPa 145.0 knots Date: 10012153
CIRA ATMS: 974 hPa 76 knots Date: 09291611
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#185 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:49 am

WDPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STY 30W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
DEFINED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND IT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 020600Z
HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE 18 NM WIDE EYE. A
020432Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS STY 30W HAS CONCENTRIC EYE
WALLS AND IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES. THIS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CI OF T7.5 (155 KNOTS) DUE TO THE ERC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STY 30W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED ERC
MAY CAUSE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW STY 30W TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO 135 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TAU 12 WHICH ARE A RESULT OF UPWELLING PRODUCED
BY TY TRAMI WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS AGO. DESPITE
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND ALLOW KONG-REY TO DECREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
WITH A SPREAD OF 110 NM. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACKERS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48
AND HAVE A SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 72. NAVGEM IS A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER TO THE WEST COMPARED WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE
TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY TAU 72 THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 30W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BY THIS TIME STY 30W WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). HOWEVER, STY 30W
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD WHICH WILL OFFSET THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
SLOW THE WEAKENING RATE. KONG-REY WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96 AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT KONG-REY WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 96 BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#186 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:50 am

Starting to lose steam. Cloud tops are warming - I think it's now starting to feel Trami's cold wake. Still an impressive storm though.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#187 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:11 am

AMSU at 175 knots.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 30W
Tuesday 02oct18 Time: 1000 UTC
Latitude: 18.60 Longitude: 131.53
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 24 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 879 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 175 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -5.8 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 6.55
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.76
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1005
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 02 Time (UTC): 0600

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#188 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:15 am

Just for comparison purposes, here is Walaka and Kong-rey. Both at 140 knots. I understand Walaka but Kong-rey is just off the charts and big time underestimated.

Image

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10020659
SATCON: MSLP = 936 hPa MSW = 128 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 125.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 117 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 300 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 931 hPa 132 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT020900
CIMSS AMSU: 916 hPa 145 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10020659
ATMS: 992.7 hPa 48.8 knots Date: 09301229
SSMIS: 962.0 hPa 103.0 knots Date: 10010554
CIRA ATMS: 959 hPa 94 knots Date: 10020058

Image

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10021000
SATCON: MSLP = 899 hPa MSW = 156 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 149.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 145 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.5 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 923 hPa 132 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT021110
CIMSS AMSU: 879 hPa 175 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10021000
ATMS: 960.0 hPa 90.2 knots Date: 09301640
SSMIS: 910.0 hPa 145.0 knots Date: 10012153
CIRA ATMS: 920 hPa 127 knots Date:
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#189 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:44 am

The AMSU estimate is once again distorted by the estimated RMW - 9km is likely too small for a system that has just begun an ERC. 145 knots sounds right to me right now.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#190 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:00 am

Intensity estimation for this typhoon reminds me of Typhoon Cimaron from 2006.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#191 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:03 am

30W KONG-REY 181002 1200 18.9N 131.2E WPAC 135 922

Seems like both Walaka and Kong-rey are treated as twins. Both agencies from hawaii upgraded the two to a 5 at the same time, same peak, and downgraded at the same time. :lol: Kong-rey was clearly stronger.

Such a loss for world meteorology.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#192 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:21 am

I wonder why we didn't get any new ATMS estimates yesterday. It's not like we didn't have data. In fact, I decided to ask CIMSS about it.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1047115491288977408


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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#193 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:23 am

Even though it has clearly weakened, I still think 140 kt is a reasonable estimate right now. Maybe even a little more depending on how high it peaked.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#194 Postby kaykayjs » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:54 am

What's the best way to monitor the track? The only site I found is not as clear on impacts/intensity as I'd hope.

I am flying out of LAX on Saturday morning arriving in Tokyo Sunday afternoon and am wondering if my flight is going to get cancelled. :/
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#195 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:15 pm

Very much moving into the Trami upwelling zone now.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#196 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:34 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Starting to lose steam. Cloud tops are warming - I think it's now starting to feel Trami's cold wake. Still an impressive storm though.


I agree, it's now moving exactly over the track of slow-moving Trami. Kong-Rey is slowly weakening.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#197 Postby TorSkk » Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:01 pm

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 2 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°30' (19.5°)
E130°25' (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 650 km (350 NM)
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#198 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:34 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 16 NM
EYE IN EIR IMAGERY. A 021803Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS STY
30W STILL HAS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION AS THE OUTER EYEWALL STARVES THE INNER EYEWALL OF INFLOW.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS) AND THE KNES AND RJTD
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS), AS WELL AS A 021654Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
137 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STY 30W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A TUTT CELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS ALSO ENHANCING OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BEYOND TAU 12, STY 30W
WILL TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AT OR BELOW 26C, WHICH ARE A RESULT OF
UPWELLING PRODUCED BY TY TRAMI WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL
DAYS AGO. STY 30W WILL ALSO LOSE ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH
RESPECT TO THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH,
DECREASING OUTFLOW IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DIMINISHED OUTFLOW AND
COOLER SSTS WILL CAUSE STY 30W TO WEAKEN TO 75 KTS BY TAU 48.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AS THE NEW
PRIMARY EYEWALL CONTRACTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 127 NM. HOWEVER, MODEL
TRACKERS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 AND HAVE A SPREAD OF 354 NM BY TAU 72.
NAVGEM REMAINS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST COMPARED WITH THE
REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. HWRF AND COAMPS-GFS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS AND PREDICT A TIGHTER RECURVE AND SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION
AS STY 30W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR BUT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 30W WILL BE ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND WILL START ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
THIS TIME, STY 30W WILL HAVE MOVED OVER EVEN COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, THE OUTFLOW FROM STY
30W WILL ALSO TAP INTO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, AND SLOW THE WEAKENING RATE. BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND 96, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS KOREAN
PENINSULA WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING, THOUGH STY 30W IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER. KONG-REY WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96 AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
STY 30W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72, BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED, WITH A SPREAD OF 1000
NM AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#199 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:41 pm

Image
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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#200 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:20 pm

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 3 October 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N20°05' (20.1°)
E129°50' (129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 750 km (400 NM)
SE 650 km (350 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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