WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#201 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:22 pm

125 kt
30W KONG-REY 181003 0000 20.1N 129.7E WPAC 125 929
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#202 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:45 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE, WITH
TWO PARTIAL EYEWALLS STILL APPARENT TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 9 NM EYE IN EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE
PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS)
AND THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS), AS WELL AS A 022228Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 130 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 30W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT CELL TO ITS SOUTHEAST HAS SLACKENED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TY 30W HAS CROSSED INTO THE POOL OF COOLER
(26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING FROM
UPWELLING GENERATED BY TY TRAMI SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR, LEADING TO
WEAKENING. TY 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72,
TY 30W WILL ROUND THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND BEGIN
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 30W WILL LOSE ITS
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH, DECREASING OUTFLOW. THE DIMINISHED OUTFLOW
AND COOLER SSTS WILL CAUSE TY 30W TO WEAKEN TO 75 KTS BY TAU 48.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AS THE NEW
PRIMARY EYEWALL CONTRACTS. ADDITIONALLY, TY 30W WILL TAP INTO
ANOTHER PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AT TAU 48, TEMPORARILY ENHANCING
OUTFLOW AND SLOWING THE WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 125 NM.
HOWEVER, MODEL TRACKERS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 AT THE POINT OF THE
RECURVE AND HAVE A SPREAD OF 396 NM BY TAU 72. GALWEM, NAVGEM, AND
COAMPS-NAVGEM ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS AND PREDICT SLOWER MOTION.
HWRF, COAMPS-GFS, AND GFS ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS AND PREDICT A
TIGHTER RECURVE AND SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION AS TY 30W ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UNTIL TAU 48, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
INFLUENCED BY THE PREVAILING MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY THIS TIME,
TY 30W WILL HAVE MOVED OVER EVEN COOLER SSTS BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. AS TY 30W BECOMES FIRMLY EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH, SUFFERS
FROM THE INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, AND TRACKS OVER
VERY COOL SSTS, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS KOREAN PENINSULA WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. TY 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TY 30W WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72, BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
ALONG-TRACK SPEED, WITH A SPREAD OF 1053 NM AT TAU 120. THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#203 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:51 am

Looks like ATMS estimates for Kong-rey during peak intensity are finally available - but they are not particularly impressive.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#204 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:37 am

One of the few exceptions to me. How did this peak at only 140 kts, and how was this not upgraded to a category 5 earlier? If estimates had been higher in the first place, wouldn't that mean they could have lifted the ceiling on constraints? Or that the constraints would actually be higher? That would have given room for higher intensity estimates during its actual peak!

Image
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#205 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:40 am

WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN, SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE EYE
FEATURE REMAINS BUT IT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
030600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE ERODING, NOW
7 NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS)
FROM RJTD AND PGTW AND SLIGHTLY BELOW A 030454Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
112 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 30W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. HOWEVER, TY 30W HAS
CROSSED INTO THE POOL OF COOLER (26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE A PRODUCT OF UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE PASSAGE
OF TY TRAMI SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THESE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE LED TO A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TY 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND THEN WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, TY 30W WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND AFOREMENTIONED STR AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AND TY 30W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF
70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SMALL ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD. HOWEVER, THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE
ALONG-TRACK FORECAST SPEED, SPECIFICALLY AFTER TAU 48. COTC IS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER INDICATING A SLOWER TRACK SPEED WITH GFS AND HWRF THE
EASTERN OUTLIERS INDICATING A FASTER TRACK SPEED. HWRF AND COTC HAVE
A SPREAD OF 390 NM BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
ALONG-TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY. TY 30W WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BUT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED REMAIN. NOTABLY, CTCX AND ECMWF
HAVE A SPREAD OF 870 NM BY TAU 120 WITH CTCX THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND
ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE FASTER SOLUTION. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#206 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:15 am

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#207 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:44 am

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#208 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:51 am

SATCON peaked Kong-rey at 165 knots, for comparison Meranti's SATCON peak was 172 knots
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#209 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:11 am

Hayabusa wrote:SATCON peaked Kong-rey at 165 knots, for comparison Meranti's SATCON peak was 172 knots


These high numbers you only see regularly in the WPAC. WOW. Those recon missions would have been incredible!
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#210 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:03 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 24//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS
WARMED UP AND FEEDER BANDS UNRAVELED. THE PINHOLE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD-COVERED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE THAT LINED UP WELL
WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 031724Z ATMS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND IS REFLECTIVE OF THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 30W IS STILL IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS
WITH A VERY STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN WARM AT (28-29 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, THE
CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ALONG A SWATH OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
CAUSED BY THE PREVIOUS PASSAGE OF TY TRAMI SEVERAL DAYS AGO. PLUS,
COLD DRY AIR IS NOW ADVECTING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SURFACE
DYNAMICS ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSES FOR THE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 30W WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TURN MORE
POLEWARD, CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48 WILL BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW
OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE SOJ. INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING VWS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND DOWN TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KONG-REY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BY TAU 96, WITH A TRACK SPEED EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS,
AND WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHERN JAPAN EMERGING BACK IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN EAST OF HOKKAIDO AS A STORM-FORCE 45-KNOT COLD CORE LOW, FULLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SMALL ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD;
HOWEVER, THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE ALONG-TRACK FORECAST SPEEDS
AFTER TAU 36. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 36, AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 36.
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#211 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:21 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 25//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM WEAKENED AT A MORE RAPID RATE AS EVIDENCED BY
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING UP AND FEEDER BANDS
UNRAVELING FAST AND BECOMING FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLOUD-FILLED PINHOLE EYE IN
THE 040000Z 1-KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 TO 4.5 FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE RAPID WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 30W IS STILL IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH A VERY
STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
REMAIN WARM AT (28-29 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG A SWATH OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. PLUS, COLD DRY AIR IS
ADVECTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER.
THESE SURFACE DYNAMICS ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSES FOR THE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TURN MORE POLEWARD, CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
IT WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 72, TY 30W
WILL BE IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) JUST NORTHWEST OF MISAWA. NEAR TAU
36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48
WILL BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE KOREAN
STRAIT. INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING TREND DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KONG-REY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BY TAU 96, WITH A TRACK SPEED EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS,
AND WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHERN JAPAN EMERGING BACK IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN EAST OF HOKKAIDO AS A GALE-FORCE 35-KNOT COLD CORE LOW, FULLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SMALL ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD;
HOWEVER, THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE ALONG-TRACK FORECAST SPEEDS
AFTER TAU 36. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 36, AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 36.
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#212 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:26 pm

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#213 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:56 pm

I don't even know how to accurately assess this system right now.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#214 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:18 pm

Latest - Okinawa Radar

Image
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#215 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:39 pm

It's probably a tropical storm right now with pressures remain low - I'm thinking 960mb/60kt
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#216 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:18 am

Remains a typhoon.

WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 26//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND A 040422Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY
MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), LOW OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AROUND TAU 24, TY 30W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48, TY 30W WILL BE IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ)
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BE
A COLD-CORE LOW NORTHEAST OF MISAWA AB. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ALONG-TRACK
AGREEMENT BUT THERE IS POOR SPEED AGREEMENT. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#217 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:19 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#218 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:30 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 28//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GREATLY REDUCED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
SHALLOW FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS UNRAVELING OUT TO OVER 350 NM FROM A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WARM PIXELS IN THE EIR LOOP
THAT FIT DEAD CENTER INTO A LARGER LLC IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND NEAR
CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES OF T3.5/55-KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN AN AREA WITH LOW
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL GREATLY ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, IN THE LOW LEVELS, LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND CAUSING
GRADUAL DECAY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AND WILL
BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 36, TS 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) ON A FAST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 48, TS 30W WILL COMPLETE ETT AND
TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN
HONSHU. VERY HIGH VWS, LOW OHC, AND COOL SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE, WITH THE
INTENSITY FALLING TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT TS 30W WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF FORECAST.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODELS WITH SLOW AND WIDE TRACK TENDENCIES
DURING RECURVATURE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36; THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36, ACROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS INCREASE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#219 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:49 am

Image

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 08:45 UTC, 5 October 2018

<Analysis at 08 UTC, 5 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N30°05' (30.1°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 560 km (300 NM)
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#220 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:50 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 050900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 30 CORRECTED//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC AND AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND A 050506Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE LLCC AND BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26-27 CELSIUS
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W HAS RECENTLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND WILL BEGIN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BY TAU 24, TS 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AND IT WILL COMPLETE ETT SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. DESPITE
INCREASING VWS VALUES, TS 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS OF
40 KNOTS OR GREATER AS IT DEVELOPS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DESPITE SOME
VARIATION IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED, OVERALL MODEL SPREAD IS LOW AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED TRACKING DIRECTION.//
NNNN
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