CPAC: WALAKA - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#61 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:36 am

SconnieCane wrote:We had the best looking 90kt hurricane ever, lol.


Heck this is the best looking 105kt Hurricane ever. Though I'd make a good argument it is more than that now. Working for WMG.

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#62 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:31 am

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka has improved significantly
overnight as the cyclone continues to rapidly intensify. The well
defined eye is surrounded by a large ring of -70 to -85C cloud
tops, and continues to show excellent outflow in all quadrants as
evident in geostationary satellite animations. Additionally, large
deep convective banding features are present on both the east and
west side of Walaka early this morning. The latest intensity
estimates came in at 5.5 (102 knots) from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, while
the UW-CIMSS ADT was 5.4 (100 knots). As of 01/14Z, raw DT numbers
are as high as 7.0 (140 knots), but need to be held down
due to intensification constraints. Based on this data along with
the continued improvement in the appearance and organization, the
initial intensity of Walaka for this advisory was increased to 110
knots, making it 5 knots short of category 4 status. The initial
motion was set at 295/09 knots.

Walaka is beginning to round the southwest periphery of a large
subtropical ridge this morning and is currently moving toward the
west-northwest. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today
as a deep north Pacific upper trough digs southward in the vicinity
of 30N 170W and further erodes the western end of the subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the north is then expected on Tuesday, with
Walaka continuing on this course through Tuesday night with an
increase in forward speed. The tropical cyclone should then make a
turn toward the north-northeast Wednesday and Wednesday night as it
begins to feel the influence of the deep upper level trough. The
track guidance then suggests a shift back toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed Thursday through Friday as Walaka
interacts with the deep upper level trough, with a turn back toward
the northeast expected Friday night. The official track forecast
was changed very little from the previous advisory and remains
in close proximity to the tightly clustered HCCA, TVCN, and GFEX
consensus guidance.

The environment surrounding Walaka remains very conducive for
additional intensification during the next 36 hours and possibly
even a bit longer. Today through Tuesday, the tropical cyclone will
remain within a deep moist airmass, with vertical wind shear
forecast to remain around 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures
holding in the 84 to 86 Fahrenheit range. As a result, additional
rapid intensification is expected today into tonight, with the
cyclone then forecast to level off late tonight through Tuesday
night. Given the environment surrounding the system, the intensity
forecast brings Walaka up to category 5 intensity tonight, and is
slightly above the intensity guidance which doesn't explicitly
indicate Walaka will reach category 5 intensity. There is the
potential that Walaka could intensify even more than currently
forecast
, but due to eyewall replacement cycles likely leading to
some fluctuation in intensity, the forecast was held nearly steady
from late tonight through Tuesday night. Vertical wind shear is
expected to steadily increase Wednesday and Wednesday night as
Walaka approaches and begins to interact with the deep upper level
trough over the north-central Pacific, with sea surface temperatures
dropping off during this time as well. The intensity forecast
calls for rapid weakening beginning beyond 48 hours, with this
weakening trend expected to continue through the end of the forecast
period. The official intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous advisory and is slightly higher than all intensity guidance
through 36 hours, then falls more closely in line with a blend of
the statistical and dynamical guidance for forecast hour 72 through
120.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 12.3N 168.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.1N 169.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 170.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.4N 170.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.9N 170.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 25.0N 167.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 29.5N 167.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 33.0N 164.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#63 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:50 am

Image
Image
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#64 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:05 am

Wow, Walaka really looks like a WPAC typhoon. Impressive on satellite! :firedevil:
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I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#65 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:10 am

Just overtook King Kong in Raw T:7.6 vs 7.4 :eek:
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#66 Postby TorSkk » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:18 am

Never seen a category 3 hurricane that looked better :lol:

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#67 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:21 am

2018's Most Beautiful System in the Western Hemisphere.

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#68 Postby wx98 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:11 pm

This definitely might be the most impressive storm in the basin this year. October never disappoints.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#69 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:12 pm

Hands down the best looking WHEM storm to date. This looks on cusp of Cat 5 to me. Some early daylight visible soon.

Image

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#70 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:29 pm

Should rapid intensification continue I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if this surpasses Ioke. Just a jaw-dropping storm in every way.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#71 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:40 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2018 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 12:26:23 N Lon : 168:41:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 943.5mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +13.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#72 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:54 pm

Absolutely stunning.

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#73 Postby michelinj » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:07 pm

Are we likely to see a recon mission into Walaka? As he’s a CPAC storm surely Hawaii can run missions?
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#74 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:11 pm

michelinj wrote:Are we likely to see a recon mission into Walaka? As he’s a CPAC storm surely Hawaii can run missions?


It won't likely have much impact on Hawaii if any at all. No missions planned.

Though if recon were in this thing, the very cold clouds and small, warm eye I bet they would find a crazy pressure gradient like Patricia (just not as intense). Very tight core relative to overall size. Perhaps something with 150-160kts. This looks way better than Lane did when he achieved 140kts.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#75 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:13 pm

michelinj wrote:Are we likely to see a recon mission into Walaka? As he’s a CPAC storm surely Hawaii can run missions?


No recon since it won't threaten any landmass in the near future. The population of the tiny island in its path, Johnson Atoll, is almost nonexistent.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#76 Postby TorSkk » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:13 pm

...WALAKA REACHES CATEGORY 4 STATUS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 168.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#77 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:15 pm

If the current satellite presentation holds or improves in the next 6 hours, Walaka would almost certainly become the strongest hurricane in CPAC on record
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#78 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:25 pm

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#79 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:31 pm

Morning shot of Walaka from Himawari-8. 13:40 UTC.

1.4 MB. Source: https://himawari8.nict.go.jp/
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#80 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:48 pm

Only thing holding this back from becoming the most intense CPAC storm is time but I doubt it will effect it much. Hope CPHC goes with category 5 next advisory. They've done much better with Walaka than Lane and Hector.

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