ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4281 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:40 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:The western eyewall that was over Panama City was extremely impressive at landfall on radar, much more so than the eastern eyewall. I hope we have some data in the post analysis to compare what winds Panama City, Tyndall, and Mexico Beach received. I'm also interested in the storm surge. Looking at the elevations and pictures of 7+ feet of water submerged homes which are at 8 feet elevation, I'm thinking higher than 14 feet, perhaps closer to 19 feet in spots. There were areas google earth says are 12 feet elevation that have only foundation slabs in Mexico Beach.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1050285757636767749


I believe the radar looked lopsided like that because the eastern eyewall was further from the radar site, so the beam had to travel through more and was weaker.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4282 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:56 pm

The Tallahassee radar had the same effect of a weaker eastern eyewall.
 https://twitter.com/ChaacTlaloc/status/1050086975292624896


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4283 Postby TallyTracker » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:21 pm

I'm in Tallahassee and we just got our power back. Most of my family lives in Panama City, Lynn Haven, and Southport. Thankfully all my family is accounted for, but most of their homes were destroyed. I am headed into Bay County tomorrow to deliver supplies to some family who can't leave right now. It's so heartbreaking to see all this. I will post pictures when I get back tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4284 Postby otowntiger » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:34 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:The western eyewall that was over Panama City was extremely impressive at landfall on radar, much more so than the eastern eyewall. I hope we have some data in the post analysis to compare what winds Panama City, Tyndall, and Mexico Beach received. I'm also interested in the storm surge. Looking at the elevations and pictures of 7+ feet of water submerged homes which are at 8 feet elevation, I'm thinking higher than 14 feet, perhaps closer to 19 feet in spots. There were areas google earth says are 12 feet elevation that have only foundation slabs in Mexico Beach.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1050285757636767749
. I remember the west side looking much more impressive, but obviously the right front quadrant was the most powerful side given the damage seen.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4285 Postby yzerfan » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:36 pm

TallyTracker wrote:I'm in Tallahassee and we just got our power back. Most of my family lives in Panama City, Lynn Haven, and Southport. Thankfully all my family is accounted for, but most of their homes were destroyed. I am headed into Bay County tomorrow to deliver supplies to some family who can't leave right now. It's so heartbreaking to see all this. I will post pictures when I get back tomorrow.


Check with the Bay County Sheriff's office about road status- earlier today they were roadblocking everyone who wasn't a credentialed relief worker from coming into the county from most north approaches and you may have to go west to US 331 and then loop back onto US 98 to get into the disaster zone.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4286 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:16 pm

60-second (30-second closer to landfall) MDS GOES-16 IR time lapse of the life cycle of Hurricane Michael...



Link: https://youtu.be/WSNypCeeNvk
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4287 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:17 pm

AJC3 wrote: 60-second (30-second closer landfall) MDS GOES-16 IR time lapse of the life cycle of Hurricane Michael...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSNypCeeNvk


Amazing loop especially when Michael suddenly seems to go into overdrive at 1:33 in the video. Also, the perfectly circular and sharp looking eyewall that took shape just an hour before landfall shows why the winds for so violent at landfall. Michael would have easily been a cat 5 if he had another 2 hours over water. Harvey and Michael should teach all of us Gulf Coast residents that you should never turn your back on "just a cat 1 or 2." Count me in as one of the doubters of the threat of cat 4/5's on the northern Gulf. In the past 25 years all of the majors have seemed to weaken as they approach landfall (I was in Lili's crosshairs as a cat 4.) Harvey and Michael have definitely rocked that position and I think this same mentality would save countless lives in the future. With the right timing and background conditions anything is on the table. NHC post-analysis will be fascinating.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4288 Postby wxdude56 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:14 pm

otowntiger wrote:
PandaCitrus wrote:The western eyewall that was over Panama City was extremely impressive at landfall on radar, much more so than the eastern eyewall. I hope we have some data in the post analysis to compare what winds Panama City, Tyndall, and Mexico Beach received. I'm also interested in the storm surge. Looking at the elevations and pictures of 7+ feet of water submerged homes which are at 8 feet elevation, I'm thinking higher than 14 feet, perhaps closer to 19 feet in spots. There were areas google earth says are 12 feet elevation that have only foundation slabs in Mexico Beach.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1050285757636767749
. I remember the west side looking much more impressive, but obviously the right front quadrant was the most powerful side given the damage seen.


The West side definitely look more impressive no matter which radar direction it was from. I think the powerful wind plus the surge from Michael made for the damage at Mexico Beach which Panama City was just wind was astonishing. Looking like Charley and Andrew.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4289 Postby otowntiger » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:45 am

AJC3 wrote:60-second (30-second closer landfall) MDS GOES-16 IR time lapse of the life cycle of Hurricane Michael...

https://youtu.be/WSNypCeeNvk

Thanks for posting this!!! That’s amazing.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4290 Postby mlfreeman » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:07 am

AJC3 wrote:60-second (30-second closer landfall) MDS GOES-16 IR time lapse of the life cycle of Hurricane Michael...

https://youtu.be/WSNypCeeNvk


Interesting.
Right up until the real eye formed (right before landfall) it looked to me like the clouds were emanating from a spot to the NE of the center and rippling outward.
You could even see water-like ripples in the black & white cloud tops heading out from that spot in all directions (but mostly westward).
Once the eye formed for real that spot seemed to move to the south side and weaken.

I'm a mere weather nerd so I have no idea what any of it could mean but it's still impressive to see.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4291 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:22 am

I'm currently trying to process some of the GOES-East 30-second data of Michael during landfall. Since only the Red Band (0.64 µm) has a resolution of 500 meters, you normally can't get full-resolution colour images out of this satellite. However, I played around with some colourisation techniques and even though it's obviously not as good as images from the Sentinel satellites (which didn't capture Michael near landfall) I'm nevertheless quite pleased with the results.


Image

I will try to create a colourised landfall loop based on this GOES-East data next...
Last edited by WAcyclone on Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4292 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:35 am

In the event Michael gets bumped to a Cat 5 in post analysis it would make eyes pop when looking at NOAA's return rate for such an animal. 160 years ...

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4293 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:42 am

toad strangler wrote:In the event Michael gets bumped to a Cat 5 in post analysis it would make eyes pop when looking at NOAA's return rate for such an animal. 160 years ...

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc107/softparade1313/cat5_gulf.gif


Yeah, if you average out the 160 years and the 230 years slightly to the east, you get an average of about 195 years return period for a Cat 5 where Hurricane Michael came ashore. That means if another Michael hit in the past, it was likely in the 1820s or sometime in the early 19th century prior to records.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4294 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:47 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4295 Postby birdwomn » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:57 pm

AJC3 wrote:60-second (30-second closer landfall) MDS GOES-16 IR time lapse of the life cycle of Hurricane Michael...

https://youtu.be/WSNypCeeNvk


This might be one of the most amazing life cycle time lapse videos I have ever seen. Incredible! Thanks for sharing.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4296 Postby plasticup » Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:02 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:That means if another Michael hit in the past, it was likely in the 1820s or sometime in the early 19th century prior to records.

That's not how statistics work at all
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4297 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:39 pm

You can see helicopter footage of the El Governor Hotel in Mexico Beach below. This is an older hotel pre-Andrew building codes, concrete block/steel construction representative of hotels and condos built all over Florida beach areas.

The El Governor is what I think a lot of Miami Beach older high rises will look like if a Cat 4/5 ever hits. It won't collapse into the sea but there's pretty extensive roof, window, railing and foundation damage. It'll be a big gut job to fix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVJHIPa ... u.be&t=113
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4298 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:58 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:You can see helicopter footage of the El Governor Hotel in Mexico Beach below. This is an older hotel pre-Andrew building codes, concrete block/steel construction representative of hotels and condos built all over Florida beach areas.

The El Governor is what I think a lot of Miami Beach older high rises will look like if a Cat 4/5 ever hits. It won't collapse into the sea but there's pretty extensive roof, window, railing and foundation damage. It'll be a big gut job to fix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVJHIPa ... u.be&t=113

i bet take very long time recover like new orleans
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4299 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:05 pm

birdwomn wrote:
AJC3 wrote:60-second (30-second closer landfall) MDS GOES-16 IR time lapse of the life cycle of Hurricane Michael...

https://youtu.be/WSNypCeeNvk


This might be one of the most amazing life cycle time lapse videos I have ever seen. Incredible! Thanks for sharing.


Amazing. It clearly shows that Michael was fighting shear for most of its first couple days, but never stopped firing hot towers until it was able to wrap up the eyewall and bomb out.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4300 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:26 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
birdwomn wrote:
AJC3 wrote:60-second (30-second closer landfall) MDS GOES-16 IR time lapse of the life cycle of Hurricane Michael...

https://youtu.be/WSNypCeeNvk


This might be one of the most amazing life cycle time lapse videos I have ever seen. Incredible! Thanks for sharing.


Amazing. It clearly shows that Michael was fighting shear for most of its first couple days, but never stopped firing hot towers until it was able to wrap up the eyewall and bomb out.


This is the most amazing aspect of Michael. The fact that the cyclone was able to tighten and fire off intense convection within the inner core right on through landfall, despite some shear, makes it the most spectacular cyclone I have tracked in all my years in the North Atlantic basin. Plus, the fact that Michael kept Cat 3 major status into SW Georgia, that far inland after landfall, was equally mindblowing. That is how so impressed and amazed by the awe and power of Michael. Simply an incredible storm for the history book for certain! My prayers to all who have been impacted by this killer cyclone!
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