EPAC: TARA - Remnants

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EPAC: TARA - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:24 am

EP, 98, 2018101100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 942W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101106, , BEST, 0, 145N, 951W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101112, , BEST, 0, 147N, 959W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101118, , BEST, 0, 148N, 967W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101200, , BEST, 0, 150N, 974W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101206, , BEST, 0, 152N, 981W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101212, , BEST, 0, 154N, 987W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101218, , BEST, 0, 156N, 992W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 998W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 40, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
EP, 98, 2018101306, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1004W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, ep752018 to ep982018,


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite-derived surface winds and radar data from Acapulco
indicate that a small but well-defined low pressure system has
developed less than 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
much better organized overnight, and further development of the low
is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward parallel to the southern coast of
Mexico. However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of
the expected track would bring the small disturbance and its heavy
rains closer to or even inland along the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this
system as well as products issued by the Mexican Meteorological
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:05 am

Both GFS and Euro do sort of develop this or what's left. It may beat the system behind it and become "Tara" first.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:41 am

Low shear in a about 3 days and 30C+ SSTs. Assuming it doesn't get disrupted by land.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 35 40 45 49 55 61 64 64
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 35 40 45 49 55 61 64 64
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 36 39 42 47 52 58 64
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 18 14 15 11 11 7 7 6 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -3 -4 -3 1
SHEAR DIR 65 67 70 72 78 101 129 133 186 113 177 203 257
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.3 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 160 162 166 166 164 164 166 170 167 163
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 8 11 7 11 7 10 7 8 6
700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 71 71 69 69 66 60 56 53 49 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 10
850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 30 41 32 42 61 63 57 49 28 41 34
200 MB DIV 24 35 60 70 51 56 34 61 49 61 53 23 17
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -2
LAND (KM) 118 130 133 140 141 100 57 41 64 122 182 270 408
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.2 101.5 101.8 102.1 102.5 102.9 103.2 103.8 104.5 105.6 107.0 108.6
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 3 2 2 3 4 6 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 22 23 21 20 20 22 25 25 21

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2


Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:52 pm

A small, well-defined low pressure system located more than 100
miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west
of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally
conducive for development of a tropical depression during the next
few days while the disturbance moves moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of the
expected track would bring the small low and its heavy rains closer
to or even inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico, which
would inhibit further development. Interests in this area should
monitor the progress of this system as well as products issued by
the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:51 pm

A well-defined low pressure system located about 80 miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is still producing a small but concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the center.
Upper-level winds are expected to become gradually more favorable
for development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward close to the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to
products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Land interaction should keep this in check but this will give us the ACE record.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:32 am

11pm:
Stays at 60/70

A small low pressure system is located about 80 miles south-
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization during the
day and has not persisted near the center of circulation due to
strong winds aloft. However, upper-level winds are expected to
become gradually more favorable for development of this system
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward close to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima
during the next several days, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by
the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:24 am

5 AM up to 70%/80%

A small low pressure system is located about 200 miles south-
southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has changed little in organization overnight due to
moderate winds aloft. However, upper-level winds are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development of this disturbance
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by early this week while the low moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward just offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima
during the next few days, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by
the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-TWO - E Tropical Depression

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:04 am

Forecast to be a Hurricane.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.8
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the west and southwest at a slower forward speed forecast to
begin tonight and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
depression is expected to slowly move away from Mexico over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or
early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum of 8 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

A small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the
past couple of days has finally acquired enough organized convection
to be designated a tropical depression, which is located less than
100 nmi off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Cloud tops near the
center have recently been as cold as -90C, and satellite intensity
estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on an earlier OSCAT/ScatSat
scatterometer pass that had a few uncontaminated wind vectors
located just north of a well-defined low-level circulation center,
which is similar to yesterday's ASCAT passes.

The initial motion estimate is 295/05 kt. The small cyclone is
forecast by the global and regional models to move only slowly
westward to southwestward at less than 5 kt for the new few days due
to the system being caught in a break in the subtropical ridge that
extends from central Mexico southwestward into the eastern Pacific.
By days 4 and 5, the ridge is forecast to build westward to the
north of the system, acting to nudge the cyclone westward at a
slightly faster forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies between
the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.

The environment is expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual
strengthening of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The
statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM aren't overly enthused
with intensifying the system, but that is mainly due to the high
shear values calculated from the very poleward TABM beta-advection
model, which recurves the cyclone into strong mid-latitude flow on
days 4 and 5. In contrast, the HWRF model keeps the system farther
south and gradually develops the cyclone into a hurricane by 72 h,
and then continues with slight strengthening beyond that time. Given
that the shear is expected to only be around 10 kt from an easterly
to southeasterly direction and water temperatures near 30 deg C
beneath the small cyclone, some gradual strengthening appears to be
plausible with only some slight land interaction being the primary
modulating factor until the system moves farther away from Mexico in
about 72 h.

Based on the small size of the circulation and its projected motion
away from Mexico, tropical storm warnings and watches are not
required at this time. However, only a slight deviation to the right
of the forecast track would bring stronger winds closer to the
coast, which would require the issuance of a tropical storm warning.
Regardless, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the
coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
flash flooding will be a possibility in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.0N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.2N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.0N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 16.6N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 16.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 16.9N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-TWO - E - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:39 am

Which effectively seals off the ACE record, in advance.
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-TWO - E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:19 pm

Considering the storm's track, is it possible that this may upwell waters that could prevent the system that develops next week (which models are very bullish on) from becoming as strong?
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-TWO - E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:03 pm

Little shear expected.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWENTYTWO EP222018 10/14/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 62 66 67 69 66 64
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 62 66 67 69 66 64
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 45 49 52 55 56 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 10 12 11 4 6 3 5 4 4 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -2 0 1
SHEAR DIR 96 106 117 129 126 139 106 114 179 179 212 262 273
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 156 157 160 162 165 165 164 162 161 160
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 62 61 62 62 64 60 60 59 62 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR 47 65 64 62 57 54 27 3 -15 -2 2 -2 -3
200 MB DIV 64 88 83 73 79 72 69 44 18 31 25 -1 24
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 3 2 4 0 2
LAND (KM) 121 127 134 141 149 172 204 236 292 315 346 383 444
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.0 104.2 104.3 104.3 104.2 104.1 104.5 105.4 106.1 106.7 107.5 108.5
STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 3 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 22 22 21 20 19

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 345 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 6. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 32. 36. 37. 39. 36. 34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 103.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 8.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 4.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -3.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 27.6% 24.1% 16.3% 10.9% 20.9% 31.7% 43.8%
Logistic: 6.5% 23.4% 16.4% 8.3% 4.6% 5.0% 2.8% 4.1%
Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0%
Consensus: 6.2% 17.9% 13.8% 8.3% 5.2% 8.7% 11.8% 16.3%
DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-TWO - E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 104.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Although convective activity has decreased since the previous
advisory, good cyclonic rotation is noted in the small convective
elements, and an upper-level anticyclone has developed over the
low-level center based on weak cirrus outflow now occuring in all
quadrants. A fortuitous ship located about 30 nmi west of the
center at 1800Z reported a 30-kt northerly wind and 1010.7 mb
pressure, which helped to locate the center, and also to estimate
the intensity and central pressure of the depression. The initial
intensity therefore remains 30 kt, which is supported by a satellite
intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and a 1542Z ScatSat pass.

The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The latest model guidance
continues the previous motion trend by only moving the cyclone
slowly westward to west-southwestward at less than 5 kt for the next
few days due to the depression remaining embedded within a break in
a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends southwestward from
central Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A broad upper-level trough
and low located over the southwestern United States is forecast to
weaken and lift out slowly to the northeast on days 4 and 5, which
will allow the ridge to gradually build westward to the north of the
cyclone. This should result in an increase in the easterly flow
south of the ridge, helping to nudge the cyclone westward at a
slightly faster forward speed. The new NHC forecast track is a
little north of the previous advisory track after 48 h, and lies
between the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.

The cyclone is forecast to be embedded within an environment that is
somewhat conducive for at least gradual strengthening to occur. The
cyclone's small circulation and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of
only 25-30 nmi would suggest that rapid intensification could
occur since the wind shear is expected to decrease to around 5 kt
after 36 hours. However, proximity to land is expected to
continue to disrupt the outer circulation and also create downslope
conditions off the coastal mountains, which will produce occasional
intrusions of dry air. The result is that only modest strengthening
is forecast for the next 5 days, and the official intensity
forecast is similar to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity
consensus models.

The small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from
Mexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this
time. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast
track would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would
require the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the
winds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash
flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.4N 104.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.4N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 17.3N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.4N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 17.9N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-TWO - E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby zeehag » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:07 pm

hopefully this one dissipates before cabo san lucas.
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-TWO - E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

For the first time in the depression's (and its predecessor low's)
existence, deep convection has persisted for more than a few hours.
The convective canopy has been slowly expanding, although it is
still a little restricted on the eastern side due some easterly
shear. Based on microwave data, the structure of the cyclone has
been slow to improve in organization, and consensus T2.0s from TAFB
and SAB support maintaining a 30-kt initial intensity.

The depression is located near the western edge of a mid-level
ridge, with a deep-layer trough located not too far to the north
across northwestern Mexico and the western United States. Its
position places the depression within weak steering currents, and
the system is likely to drift west-northwestward or even meander at
speeds of less than 5 kt for much of the forecast period. The track
guidance has shifted a little more to the northwest on this cycle,
and the NHC forecast has therefore been adjusted north of the
previous official forecast, although not as far as the TVCN
multi-model consensus nor the HCCA aid. Despite this adjustment,
the cyclone is expected to remain small, which should keep
tropical-storm-force winds offshore of the coast of Mexico.

The forecast reasoning for the future intensity has changed
substantially. For the first 3 days, vertical shear is expected to
gradually decrease, and the cyclone's small size will make it prone
to significant strengthening during that period. In fact, based on
the Rapid Intensification Indices, the chance of a 30-kt increase
in 24 hours is 3 times more than average, and the chance of a 65-kt
increase in 72 hours is almost 9 times more than average.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance
through day 3, with the possibility of the depression becoming a
hurricane during that time. After day 3, the models are trending
toward the cyclone entering a region of higher shear associated
with the western U.S. trough, which would likely lead to a
weakening trend. Most of the intensity models suggest that the
cyclone's intensity will peak around 3 days, and therefore the NHC
intensity forecast now indicates weakening on days 4 and 5
(although it is still well above most of the models). This is a
low-confidence intensity forecast, and additional adjustments are
likely in future advisories.

The small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from
Mexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this
time. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast
track would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would
require the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the
winds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash
flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.5N 104.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.7N 104.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.7N 104.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.8N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.4N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 19.6N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:08 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
Corrientes.


Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved
somewhat overnight, with convection continuing to burst over the
western and northwestern portions of the circulation. The center
is slightly more embedded within the southeastern portion of the
cold cloud tops, but easterly shear continues to restrict
convection over the eastern portion of the system. A couple of
ASCAT passes around 0400 UTC were helpful in locating the center of
the cyclone and both indicated peak winds of 25 to 30 kt to the
west of the center. Dvorak classifications at 0600 UTC were
T2.5 (35 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and given the increase in
organization, the system has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical
storm. The nineteenth named storm of the 2018 eastern North Pacific
hurricane season.

Recent microwave imagery and the ASCAT data show that Tara has not
moved much, and the initial motion estimate is stationary for
this advisory. Although the tropical storm is located within an
area of weak steering currents and little overall motion is
expected during the next couple of days, the track guidance has
become much more divergent this cycle. The GFS and UKMET models
have trended northward and now bring Tara near the southwestern
coast of Mexico within the next day or so. On the other hand, the
ECMWF takes Tara southeastward and southward away from the coast.
The various consensus aids have trended northward in the
short-term, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction through 36 hours, but it is not as far north as the GFS,
GFS ensemble mean, and UKMET models. After 48 hours, a ridge is
forecast to build westward across central Mexico, which should cause
Tara to turn west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed.
Given the spread in the guidance and its recent trends, the track
forecast is of low confidence.

The intensity forecast is also very challenging and of low
confidence this morning. Tara is expected to remain under the
influence of easterly shear during the next day or two. The shear,
however, is not expected to be strong enough to prevent gradual
strengthening. After that time, the intensity forecast depends on
how close to the coast the cyclone moves. If Tara gets too close to
southwestern Mexico, the small cyclone is likely to weaken. If it
stays offshore, however, the shear is forecast to decrease which
should allow for additional strengthening. Since the NHC track
forecast keeps Tara offshore, it calls for gradual strengthening
through 72 hours, but it is not as aggressive as before since most
of the guidance is lower than before. Increasing southwesterly
shear by days 4 and 5 should lead to weakening, and although the NHC
forecast keeps Tara a tropical storm trough the period, most of the
global models weaken and dissipate the system by the end of the
week.

Due to the uncertainties in the track forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast
of southwest Mexico. Regardless of how close Tara tracks to
southwestern Mexico, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along
the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion,
and life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.5N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.0N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.3N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:35 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Tara remains a small, sheared tropical cyclone with convection
continuing to go through bursting phases near the low-level center.
Extremely cold overshooting cloud tops of -90C to -95C have been
occurring just north of the center during the past couple of hours,
and the convective cloud shield has gradually been expanding
southeastward over the center. Satellite intensity estimates are
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the most recent
objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T3.1/47 kt. Based on these
data, the intensity is conservatively raised to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/01 kt. Tara is
expected to only drift toward the west-northwest or northwest for
the next couple of days while the small cyclone remains embedded in
weak steering currents. The GFS and UKMET models move Tara inland
just west of Manzanillo, Mexico, in 36-48 hours, whereas the ECMWF,
GFS-FV3, HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and Canadian models keep the center
offshore. For now, the official forecast track follows the consensus
models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE, keeping the center offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico since there appears to be no
significant steering mechanism to force the circulation onshore for
the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the ridge to the north of
Tara is forecast to build westward across central Mexico, forcing
the cyclone on a west-northwestward track at a slightly faster
forward speed. However, due to continued large spread in the
guidance, the track forecast is of low confidence.

Moderate easterly to southeasterly shear is forecast by the models
to affect Tara for the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours, the shear
is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and remain low until 72
hours, which should allow for some modest strengthening to occur...
assuming the center remains offshore. The small circulation, low
vertical wind shear conditions, and warm ocean temperatures near 30C
would typically result in more significant strengthening, but
proximity to land and a dry surrounding environment is expected to
temper the intensification process somewhat. By days 4 and 5,
southwesterly shear forecast to increase to around 20 kt should is
expected to induce some slight weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to but slightly higher than the consensus models
HCCA, IVCN, and FSSE, and maintains continuity with the previous
forecast.

Regardless of how close Tara comes to southwestern Mexico, heavy
rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of southwestern
Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.6N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.9N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.9N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.4N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.9N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:33 pm

I guess Tara will be similar to Tina in 2016
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:13 pm

An ASCAT pass a few hours ago indicated a poorly-defined LLC and no TS winds. Models predict dissipation in the next 24-48 hrs, which seems reasonable.
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TINY TARA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Tara is now a tiny tropical storm consisting of a small, circular
area of intense convection that continues to go through bursting
phases. Two recent ASCAT scatterometer passes revealed that the
persistent cold overshooting cloud tops of -85C to -90C near the
center has apparently stretched the vortex column vertically,
causing the intensity to increase and wind field to shrink. The
34-kt wind radii have contracted down to about 20 nmi, and the
outermost circulation has decreased to only about 140 nmi wide. The
highest ASCAT wind speed value measured was 40 kt on both passes.
However, actual peak winds were likely undersampled given that they
were observed at a distance of only 10 nmi from the center. The
initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB,
an objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.4/53 kt and a SATCON
estimate of 48 kt, and this estimate is probably conservative.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/02 kt. Tara's
center has likely re-developed closer to the strong convective
bursts that had been occuring just north of the previous low-level
center. As such, the exact direction and speed of the tiny tropical
cyclone is difficult to ascertain. Recent scatterometer and visible
satellite data suggest that Tara may have become stationary or is
making a tight loop. All of the global and regional models now keep
the tiny tropical cyclone offshore for the entire 120-h forecast
period, and the new NHC model guidance indicates that a slow,
erratic motion toward the west-northwest or northwest should
occur for the next five days while Tara remains embedded within a
weak steering flow regime. The new official track forecast follows
the trend of the previous few advisory tracks, and lies near a blend
of the HCCA, FSSE, and TVCE consensus models. However, due to the
continued large spread in the guidance, the track forecast is of
low to moderate confidence.

The intensity forecast is problematic due to Tara's very small
circulation since tiny tropical cyclones can both spin up or spin
down very quickly. Moderate easterly to southeasterly vertical wind
shear is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so, followed
by a pronounced decrease in the shear until 48-72 hours. These
conditions should allow for a slow but steady increase in the
intensity. However, during the 36-to-60-hour period when the shear
will be the lowest, more significant strengthening could occur due
to Tara's small circulation. However, none of the guidance brings
the tiny cyclone to hurricane strength. By days 4 and 5,
southwesterly wind shear is forecast to increase to around 20 kt,
which is expected to induce gradual weakening. Due to Tara's small
circulation, the official intensity forecast is slightly higher than
the consensus models HCCA, IVCN, and FSSE, and closely follows the
LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity forecast aid.

Regardless of how close Tara comes to southwestern Mexico, heavy
rainfall will continue to be the primary threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.0N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.1N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.2N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.8N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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