ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:43 pm

AL, 94, 2018101312, , BEST, 0, 138N, 748W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 94, 2018101318, , BEST, 0, 139N, 757W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 94, 2018101400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 766W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 94, 2018101406, , BEST, 0, 141N, 775W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 94, 2018101412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 784W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 94, 2018101418, , BEST, 0, 143N, 792W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041, SPAWNINVEST, al762018 to al942018,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120050

2 PM TWO:

An area of disturbed weather has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in association with a large low pressure system
located more than 200 miles east-southeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras
border. Upper-air data indicate that the system has become better
defined over the past couple of days. However, the surface
circulation remains broad and upper-level winds are expected to be
only marginally favorable for any development to occur while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of
days, reaching Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday or early
Tuesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible across portions of Central America Tuesday through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#2 Postby StruThiO » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:46 pm

:eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:10 pm

This looks like the next EPAC system?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This looks like the next EPAC system?


Yes,the 0/60 that TWO has for EPAC and models develop into a very strong Hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:26 pm

It looks like once again the extra names on the Pacific list will come in very handy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:49 pm

RL3AO wrote:It looks like once again the extra names on the Pacific list will come in very handy.


I wonder if the East Pacific will be start using Greek letters this season like 2005 Atlantic Season. In 1992, it went up to Z, which was Zeke.

The next named storm will be Tara (Invest 98E) and Vicente (Invest 94L?)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:55 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
RL3AO wrote:It looks like once again the extra names on the Pacific list will come in very handy.


I wonder if the East Pacific will be start using Greek letters this season like 2005 Atlantic Season. In 1992, it went up to Z, which was Zeke.

The next named storm will be Tara (Invest 98E) and Vicente (Invest 94L?)

I doubt we’ll see anymore than six named storms in the East Pacific through the remainder of the season. Things USUALLY shutdown in November, but the way things have been going you never know.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:56 pm

I think this will become quick spin up Oscar- a tropical storm- Low shear high ssts and heat content, lots of moisture.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:57 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I think this will become quick spin up Oscar- a tropical storm- Low shear high ssts and heat content, lots of moisture.

The latest TWO says conditions are marginal at best.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby aperson » Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:24 pm

MJO looks pretty unfavorable but may improve by D4 if it can stay around that long

12z analysis: Image
12z t=96: Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:38 pm

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is moving slowly west-northwestward,
and some gradual development is possible before it moves inland over
Central America Monday night or Tuesday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible across portions of Central America for much of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby StruThiO » Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:40 am

2am TWO:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is moving slowly
west-northwestward, and some additional development is possible
before it moves inland over Central America by tonight or Tuesday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause
flash flooding, is possible across portions of Central America for
much of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:54 am

Convection firing constantly overnight in same area under very low shear.
Not much steering currents.
Could be a slow brew.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:38 am

:uarrow: It is indeed perculating this morning
Looks like we may possibly get a short lived tropical cyclone before it eventually pushes inland Central America this week.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:40 am

8 AM TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are showing
some signs of organization. The system is moving west-northwestward,
and it is possible that it could become a tropical depression before
it moves inland over Central America by Tuesday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash
flooding, is possible across portions of Central America for much of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:52 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:13 am

Nice LL spin just off the Honduras / Nicaragua board.

Some pop ups getting close to the CoC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:20 pm

Colder cloud tops now firing in the CoC

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:39 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located just offshore of northeastern Honduras contine to
show some signs of organization. The system is expected to move near
or just offshore of north coast of Honduras, and it is possible that
it could become a tropical depression before the low moves inland
over Belize late Tuesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is possible across
portions of Central America for much of the week. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system on Tuesday afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:50 pm

Should be moving inland tonight. It ran out of time. Watch for development in the East Pac on Thursday.
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