EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#201 Postby wx98 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:46 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias
early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some strengthening is still possible today. Slight weakening is
forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday
night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa
makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#202 Postby wx98 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:48 am

Wish recon would hurry up :D
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:49 am

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better
assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.


Wilma??? lol.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#204 Postby wx98 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:57 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better
assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.


Wilma??? lol.


They’re having flashbacks :double:
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#205 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:00 am

Willa.... Wilma. Woah!

And looking at the calendar, Willa's analogs are terrifyingly intense hurricanes. That ERC may be finish as quickly as it formed. Perhaps it may not be a major detriment to further intensification. Again, conditions are not Patricia-esque but there are a lot of uncanny similarities and coincidences. I'd personally say it could peak above Kenna, below Patricia. Rick-Linda levels, I'd expect..
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#206 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:00 am

Just beautiful to look at!! What time is recon expected? Looking at present Dvorak, I just have a hard time believing that we're not on the cusp of an ERC and that recon will likely report a lowest pressure 5 to 10 mb less then what i'd guess they'd find if sampling right now. I'd guess 916/918 mb right now.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#207 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:06 am

SST's actually appear to get briefly higher just north and east of Willa near term track. Regardless, I'd have to guess that we're seeing her at her peak. I just can't imagine enough time for an ERC to commence and then contract to the extent that the inner eye wall is displaying right now.

Edit: Looking at various Satellite resolutions, I have to believe that we will begin to see at least some degradation of the eye wall as soon as within the next two hours. I'm not sure if recon is anticipated to be at center fix quite that soon
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#208 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:26 am

chaser1 wrote:SST's actually appear to get briefly higher just north and east of Willa near term track. Regardless, I'd have to guess that we're seeing her at her peak. I just can't imagine enough time for an ERC to commence and then contract to the extent that the inner eye wall is displaying right now.

Edit: Looking at various Satellite resolutions, I have to believe that we will begin to see at least some degradation of the eye wall as soon as within the next two hours. I'm not sure if recon is anticipated to be at center fix quite that soon


It’s running short on time, but if it’s able to complete in the next 12 hours or less, it could reach a secondary peak before its ultimate demise as conditions become less favorable in the next 12-24 hours. Inner eyewall is starting to show signs of degradation, we’ll have to see how quickly the process completes
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#209 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:29 am

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221515 CCA
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 10...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Corrected wording in Key Messages number 2

Willa is an extremely impressive hurricane in infrared and visible
satellite imagery this morning. The small, but very distinct, eye
is embedded within a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud
tops of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius. A very recent SSMIS microwave
overpass is the first to indicate that an outer eyewall has formed,
suggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle has started. The
latest objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS are T7.0/140 kt, and
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 140 kt
and 127 kt, respectively. Based on these data the initial intensity
has been increased to 140 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better
assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

Willa is moving northward 6 kt. The hurricane is forecast to
continue to move northward today around the western flank of a
deep-layer ridge that is located over the Gulf of Mexico.
A short wave trough that is seen in water vapor imagery near 130W
longitude is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward toward Baja
California. This should cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
tonight, then accelerate northeastward on Tuesday, bringing the
center of the hurricane onshore along the west-central coast of
Mexico Tuesday afternoon or evening. As mentioned in the previous
advisory, the track guidance is good agreement on the overall
scenario but there are still some notable differences in the
predicted forward speed of the hurricane. The NHC track forecast
leans toward the faster solutions of the GFS and GFS ensemble
mean, which have been handling Willa's track the best so far.

The environment of low wind shear and water temperatures of 28
to 29.5 degrees Celsius suggest some additional strengthening is
possible but with the evidence that an eyewall replacement has
begun, some fluctuations intensity are possible during the next 12
to 24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear is
forecast to induce weakening, but Willa is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the
west-central coast of Mexico. After landfall, shear and the
mountainous terrain of Mexico will cause rapid weakening and
dissipation of the cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#210 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:30 am

Corrected... but still leaves in Wilma lol
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#211 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:50 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
chaser1 wrote:SST's actually appear to get briefly higher just north and east of Willa near term track. Regardless, I'd have to guess that we're seeing her at her peak. I just can't imagine enough time for an ERC to commence and then contract to the extent that the inner eye wall is displaying right now.

Edit: Looking at various Satellite resolutions, I have to believe that we will begin to see at least some degradation of the eye wall as soon as within the next two hours. I'm not sure if recon is anticipated to be at center fix quite that soon


It’s running short on time, but if it’s able to complete in the next 12 hours or less, it could reach a secondary peak before its ultimate demise as conditions become less favorable in the next 12-24 hours. Inner eyewall is starting to show signs of degradation, we’ll have to see how quickly the process completes


Perhaps, but just looking at how the westerly upper level winds are already beginning to impinge on the storm's west side
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#212 Postby zeehag » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:51 am

wilma looking for barney.
willa is a gorgeous formation.
i donot trust her track and i am thankfully on north end of mazatlan. our warnings are ts warnings, south maz is under hurricane warnings.
i have noticed that cold current off south america has managed to keep our temps down and the band of hot storm growing water is narrow.
temps of ocean are a couple degrees cooler than patricias ocean temps.
most of the folks here in mazatlan are swimming the river of denial..so many years between cane landfalls makes em a tad complacent.
i do hope willa makes landfall away from populated areas.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#213 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:48 am

Is the recon heading back to home???
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#214 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:48 am

No please. Plane turns back.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#215 Postby wx98 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:51 am

Interesting... wonder what’s going on with recon?
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#216 Postby CryHavoc » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:00 pm

Convection looks a little weaker to the SW this morning. Doesn't look like dry air, however.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5

#217 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:07 pm

If the plane is really turning back for good, then like many other systems in this basin, I fear we may never know the true peak intensity of Willa.
:cry:
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5: (Recon turns around)

#218 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:08 pm

Twice this season a plane had to turn back in this basin with a system near or at Cat 5....
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5: (Recon turns around)

#219 Postby CryHavoc » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:13 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Twice this season a plane had to turn back in this basin with a system near or at Cat 5....


In fairness, to go into a cat 5 you want everything operational. I'm sure they take it a little more seriously than flying into a minimal cat 2. Less margin for error means if anything looks sketchy you call it off. Not worth risking lives for.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane: Becomes a Category 5: (Recon turns around)

#220 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:14 pm

I wonder if they released a statement or something. Also, are any future missions carded for this storm? I think even if we have future missions, catching it at or near its peak intensity is going to be practically out of the question, but at least it would be useful for the people in the storm's path.
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