Location: 13.6°N 151.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
WPAC: INVEST 96W
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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WPAC: INVEST 96W
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
ABPW10 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/182030Z-190600ZOCT2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING AREA ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT GRADIENT INDUCED
WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/182030Z-190600ZOCT2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING AREA ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT GRADIENT INDUCED
WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.8N 153.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY
667 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191823Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE 96W WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
NEAR 20.8N 153.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY
667 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191823Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE 96W WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Gone with the wind.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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