EPAC: VICENTE - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E

#21 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:51 pm

Best track has this as a tropical storm.
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA,
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 92.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Although tiny, the cyclone continues to display well-defined
convective banding. The system's quick formation and small size
make it difficult to have high confidence in its current intensity,
and the various subjective and objective estimates range from
T1.8/28 kt from the ADT to T3.0/45 kt from SAB. As a compromise,
the intensity is set at 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB estimate
and the most recent SATCON number, and the depression is upgraded to
Tropical Storm Vicente.

As noted this morning, warm waters and low shear should induce
further strengthening during the next 48 hours. On one hand, this
intensification could be more than what is being indicated by the
models, since small systems can have a tendency to gain strength
quickly. On the other hand, Vicente will be interacting with a Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event during the next 48 hours, and the
storm could end up ingesting some drier, more stable air into its
circulation. The NHC intensity forecast favors the former scenario
and is a little above the guidance envelope for the first 2-3 days.
After day 3, an increase in shear, interaction with another possible
tropical cyclone to the west, and possible interaction with land
could all conspire to arrest the intensification trend, and
weakening is expected by the end of the forecast period. It is also
possible that Vicente could dissipate before the end of the 5-day
period. This scenario is reminiscent of, and has similarities to,
the interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Hurricane John back in
early August.

Vicente is moving very slowly northwestward, or 305/2 kt. The
track models are indicating that the ongoing gap winds over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec may have a greater influence of Vicente than
previously thought, forcing the storm to turn west-southwestward in
the next 24-48 hours. After 48 hours, Vicente should gradually
enter the flow between mid-level ridging over Mexico and low
pressure west of Mexico, causing it to turn back to the west and
northwest on days 3 through 5. The new NHC track forecast is not
too different from the morning forecast during that period, and it's
closest to the paths shown by the GFS, HCCA, and FSSE guidance,
which would bring the center close to the coast of Mexico later in
the forecast period. There are considerable speed differences,
however, and the NHC forecast splits the difference between the fast
ECMWF solution and the slow GFS scenario.

Even though Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast
tonight and on Saturday, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.3N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:14 pm

Ok, I obviously take back my earlier gloating, because I certainly won't claim to have predicted Vicente's rise and fall over the last 24 hours. After its rapid transition from a loose circulation into a storm structure bordering on a hurricane's level of organization with an eyewall present on microwave and IR imagery, its degradation has been at least as rapid. Suspect it is being suffocated by dry stable air being injected into the circulation by the gap wind effect that the NHC references in their earlier advisory discussion. I don't know if this thing is done for good, but regardless, I really hope they go in-depth with their post storm analysis to determine the storm's true intensity at peak this morning.
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:27 pm

Is the dry air from a gap wind effect really enough to dissipate a TC though? For whatever reason whenever one of these rapid spin-up micro systems starts I always get the feeling that it will just suddenly collapse quickly. If it instead were to just become a major hurricane the same day it was declared that would just not seem realistic so I think the other way. Same goes for some of those spin-up cyclones embedded in the ITCZ.
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:39 pm

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Radar imagery from Guatemala has been extremely helpful in tracking
the center of Vicente, especially after sunset. The low-level
center of the small tropical storm appears to have accelerated
northwestward during the past couple of hours, away from its rapidly
decaying central dense overcast, and is now almost entirely
exposed. Analysis from UW-CIMSS indicates that 10-15 knots of
northwesterly shear is currently affecting Vicente, and this appears
to have been enough to significantly disrupt the organization of the
cyclone, probably due to its small size. The initial intensity has
been held at 35 kt based on objective and subjective satellite
estimates at 00Z, but given the tiny size of Vicente and its
large swings in organization since early this morning, its unclear
how representative these estimates are of the true maximum winds.

Vicente is now moving west-northwestward, or 300/3 kt, and all of
the guidance indicates that it will turn westward overnight. After
that time, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause
the cyclone to turn southwestward, especially if Vicente remains
weak and shallow. A few models even indicate the tropical storm
could dissipate entirely as it interacts with these winds. Assuming
the cyclone makes it past the Gulf of Tehuantepec intact, Vicente
should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest after about
48 h as it gets steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge over
Mexico and another tropical cyclone that will likely develop off the
coast of Mexico by that time. The NHC forecast has been shifted a
little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and
FSSE aids, but is generally similar to the previous advisory.

Due in part to the rapid decline in Vicente's organization this
evening, the intensity forecast has been adjusted lower at most
forecast hours for the first 48 h of the forecast, but is still
generally higher than the model consensus. Most of the intensity
guidance still calls for intensification, especially between 36 h
and 72 h, when Vicente should be past the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
the shear should remain generally low. By the end of the forecast
period, the global models indicate that Vicente will interact with a
much larger tropical cyclone to its west, which should cause Vicente
to weaken and possibly dissipate, though a 120 h point is still
carried in this forecast for continuity purposes.

Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight
and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 13.7N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 13.7N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 12.3N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:44 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Is the dry air from a gap wind effect really enough to dissipate a TC though? For whatever reason whenever one of these rapid spin-up micro systems starts I always get the feeling that it will just suddenly collapse quickly. If it instead were to just become a major hurricane the same day it was declared that would just not seem realistic so I think the other way. Same goes for some of those spin-up cyclones embedded in the ITCZ.


This is whole gap wind effect is entirely new to me, so I won't claim to have an answer, but there are 2 things I notice when looking at IR and shortwave "nighttime vis" imagery:

1) at 22:50z, a boundary approaches from the NW
2) the mid level center almost immediately decouples from the low level center thereafter, and cloud tops warm from the -70s to the -50s

This suggests to me that the degradation is due to a rapid change in environmental conditions, as opposed to the fickle nature of rapid spin-ups, but I suspect we will know in a few minutes when the 11PM ET advisory comes out.

EDIT: the advisory discussion posted just before this post sums it up pretty well.
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby TorSkk » Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...TINY VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 93.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.


Radar data from Guatemala indicate that Vicente remains a very small
but well-defined tropical cyclone, which has occasionally exhibited
an eye-like feature. However, convection has waned during the past
few hours, so it is difficult to accurately ascertain the intensity
of such a tiny storm since small systems like this can spin up and
spin down very quickly owing to minor convective fluctuations. For
now, it is assumed that Vicente is still a tropical storm based on
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
41 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON; the most recent ADT value, however, was
T2.2/32 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. Over the last 18 hours, it
appears that Vicente's track has been doing some coastal hugging.
That being said, the tropical storm is expected to turn more
westward during the next 12 h and emerge over the open Gulf of
Tehuantepec where a modest gap wind event is forecast to turn the
cyclone southwestward by this evening. The latest 00Z model guidance
is surprisingly in very good agreement on the development of this
unusual track scenario. By 36-48 hours, a gradual turn toward the
west is expected, followed by a motion toward the northwest on days
3-5 as the small cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge located over the Gulf of Mexico and central Mexico.
Assuming Vicente survives the next 96 hours, on day 5 the tropical
cyclone is expected to come under the influence of the new and much
larger Tropical Depression 24-E -- currently located about 700 nmi
to the west -- and possibly become absorbed or forced inland over
southwestern Mexico by that system. The new NHC forecast was nudged
a little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and
FSSE corrected consensus models.

Vertical shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt and the mid-level
moisture is expected to be high with humidity values of more than 75
percent for the next 36 hours. This should allow for some gradual
strengthening to occur during that time despite Vicente's proximity
to land. By 48 hours and beyond, however, northerly shear is
expected to increase across the small cyclone, which should act to
cap the intensification process and induce some gradual weakening
by 96h. On day 5, the shear is forecast to exceed 20 kt, due in
large part to the expected strong outflow from a strengthening
TD-24E, resulting in significant weakening or even dissipation of
Vicente. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly
below the previous forecast, and lies close to an average of the
HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.

Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight
and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 14.0N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 14.1N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 12.9N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 13.1N 98.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:48 am

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data continue to
reveal that Vicente is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Data
show a ring of convection defining the center with most of the
thunderstorm activity on the southwestern portion of the
circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial
intensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is not in the best environment for
intensification given that the circulation has been interacting with
land, however the shear is not high, and the cyclone is over 29
degree Celsius water. Once the circulation separates from land,
some slight strengthening is then forecast. After that time, Vicente
will be approaching the much larger circulation of strengthening
Tropical Cyclone Willa, and the most likely scenario is that at
least by 96 hours, Vicente will become absorbed within an outer band
of Willa. This is the same scenario which occurred with Hurricane
John and Tropical Storm Ileana back in August this year.

Vicente is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt. The nose
of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand
westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west
to west-southwest track for about 36 hours. Then as the cyclone
reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern
portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the
northwest until it becomes absorbed. It is interesting to note that
unanimously, the track guidance forces Vicente to acquire a
west-southwesterly component due to the expansion of the ridge,
increasing the confidence in the the track forecast during the next
2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 14.3N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILLA

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:49 am

This system due to size has been overlooked and likely underestimated. It looks like an eye feature has been so ever present despite not always seen on visible. Microcane?

Image

You can see on Dvorak, ever so subtle, the warm color that you see in well developed eye centers.

Image
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby zeehag » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:53 am

this 1-2 punch looks ominous for mazatlan. they donot know how to do canes. they only get ts. floods in light rains... will be a mayhem here... i hope this doesnot create too many issues here. there will be flooding. there will be some wind damage to lighter built housing. i willbe across a dirt road from some lower income houses built of what could be found... they will experience issues. i hope these will me minimal.
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:07 pm

20/1745 UTC 14.5N 93.9W T3.5/3.5 VICENTE -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 94.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.


Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

The cloud pattern associated with Vicente is quite peculiar. In
addition on being unusually small, it has an intermittent eye
feature surrounded by moderate to shallow convection. A very useful
ASCAT pass a few hours ago showed that Vicente has a very tight
circulation with maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, and the
tropical-storm-force winds extend only 20 n mi from the center.
On this basis, and an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. Now
that the circulation is farther from land, the chances of some
slight strengthening have increased in the next 24 to 36 hours
before Vicente encounters the larger circulation of Willa. In fact,
most of the global models advertise that in about 3 days or so
Vicente will dissipate, and so does the official forecast.

Satellite fixes indicate that Vicente is moving toward the west or
265 degrees at 8 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is
forecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should
force Vicente to move on a west or even west-southwest track for
the next 24 to 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the
southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern
portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the
northwest and north. Vicente should become absorbed by the larger
Willa and dissipation could occur earlier than indicated in the
forecast at this time given the solution of the global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.6N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 14.0N 95.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 13.7N 97.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:30 pm

00Z, stays at 45 knots:

23E VICENTE 181021 0000 14.7N 94.6W EPAC 45 1002
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:38 pm

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Vicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl
producing intermittent bursts of deep convection. We have expected
an imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24
hours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion
estimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the
generally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast
that a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and
even that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is
imminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but
is a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours,
based on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
west-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente
is steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much
larger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the
HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a
significantly different and much farther west track for Vicente.
While this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does
illustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased
since earlier today.

The intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on
earlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size
of Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in
intensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity
guidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds
over the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and
interaction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and
eventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the
intensity forecast in this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.8N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.4N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 99.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:13 am

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes
around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined
circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds
were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of
only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind
data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which
above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to
the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is
forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the
cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's
proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening
and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the
mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente
is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the
west-northwest on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone
will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger
circulation. Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance
is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor
forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward
shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 14.3N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.4N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:14 am

All the atention is to Willa but Vicente is still out there.

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating
that the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended. The
system appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming
increasingly difficult to locate. Radar imagery from Acapulco,
Mexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this
time. The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and
TAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little
generous.

Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the
cyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing
steady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone
dissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance
showing little change in intensity until landfall. Given the
current disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be
the most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern
Mexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the
primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

Vicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and
the initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system
begins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
over Mexico. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the
ridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then
north-northwest is expected. The latest NHC forecast track is
similar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one,
and is near the tightly clustered model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:48 am

'Bout time this poor boy got some attention. :wink:
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:38 pm

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose
organization. Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally
limited to the east and south of the storm's center. Unfortunately,
the most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we
are unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed. Due
to Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak
Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This intensity
estimate may be generous, however.

Although sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29
degrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Moreover, the cyclone's small
size has likely made it more susceptible to shear. Although the
shear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so,
the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the
interaction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in
24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models
dissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast
calls for dissipation by 36 h. It should be noted that, given the
current tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any
time.

Vicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt. The
system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
while moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa. The
official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one
and roughly in the middle of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:47 am

Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near
Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has
continued to deteriorate. Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed
maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of
the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt.

WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a
little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial
motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. This motion
should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's
circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico,
and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the
Mexican state of Michoacan later today. Once inland, the tiny
circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous
terrain. A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for
continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood
Vicente will have dissipated by that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: VICENTE - Remnants

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:37 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente crossed the coast of the
Mexican state of Michoacan a little while ago, and is now inland.
The system, if in fact it still has a center, lacks sufficient
organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone.
Therefore Vicente has become a post-tropical remnant low, and
this is the last advisory on this system.

The motion is around 330/10 kt. A 12-hour forecast point is shown
for continuity, but the cyclone will probably have dissipated by
that time. Vicente's remnants, along with southwesterly flow
around the larger circulation of Hurricane Willa, will probably
continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southwestern Mexico into Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.4N 102.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 24/0000Z 19.5N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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