WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#461 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:01 pm

FXXT03 EGRR 270358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.10.2018

TYPHOON YUTU ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 134.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2018 17.6N 134.3E INTENSE
12UTC 27.10.2018 17.8N 131.7E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 17.8N 129.4E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2018 17.5N 127.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 16.9N 125.9E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.10.2018 16.5N 124.2E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2018 16.2N 121.8E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 16.1N 120.1E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 16.3N 118.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 17.2N 118.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 18.0N 118.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 19.2N 118.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 20.5N 119.9E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

If the UKMET verifies, Yutu would pass over a high OHC area
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#462 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:53 pm

The eyewall still appears pretty singular to me. I pause at calling Yutu a true annular tropical cyclone, but it is at the very least annularesque. The only ailment at the moment appears to be that backshear.

Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#463 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:16 am

Navgem 00z now shows a landfall
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#464 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:53 am

31W YUTU 181027 0600 17.8N 133.3E WPAC 135 922
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#465 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:16 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#466 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:17 am

JTWC finally shifted their forecast more west/south. Landfall over Luzon as a Cat 4.

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#467 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:48 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#468 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2018 5:39 am

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) WHICH SHOWS
A ROUND 28-NM EYE, SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 270537Z SSMI 37 GHZ CHANNEL IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE EYE FEATURE IN THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL, SUGGESTING THE
CYCLONE IS TILTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS AVERAGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5-T7.0 (127-140 KNOTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STR
TO THE NORTH OF STY 31W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THANKS TO
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH MOVE FURTHER APART. BY TAU 72, STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON LUZON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT (177 NM SPREAD) WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
HOWEVER, THE SPREAD INCREASES TO ABOUT 300 NM WHEN CONSIDERING THE
NORTHERN (COAMPS-GFS) AND SOUTHERN (JGSM) OUTLIERS. BASED ON THE
SPREAD, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE
A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND ALLOW STY 31W TO BEGIN RECURVING
NORTHWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THAT, COUPLED WITH LAND
INTERACTION, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STY 31W. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE STR MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE HIGH VWS CAUSES STY 31W TO WEAKEN. SPREAD IN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS IS ALMOST 1000 NM BY TAU 120, ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD IS REDUCED TO 230 NM WHEN COAMPS-GFS AND JGSM ARE REMOVED.
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE,
THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#469 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:09 am

Image

Image

Shear is still not abating. Lol
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#470 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:56 am

If Yutu begins to track southwestward, will that motion reduce the effect of VWS, like the storm might be moving "in phase" with upper level winds?
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#471 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:00 am

ADT numbers are going up and down, up and down.
Now back at 7.0 again.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#472 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:07 am

Image

31W YUTU 181027 1200 17.9N 132.2E WPAC 130 928
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#473 Postby TorSkk » Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:53 pm

31W YUTU 181027 1800 18.0N 131.1E WPAC 135 922
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#474 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:54 pm

CryHavoc wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
TheAustinMan wrote:Speaking of that microwave image, the AMSU microwave satellite estimate indicated 171 kts for the intensity, which might be one of the highest values I've ever seen from an objective microwave estimation technique.


171 knots is 197 mph or 316 km/h! If it was on land, that would be 168 mph (multiply by 0.85 from 197 mph) with gusts as high as 252 mph (multiplied by 1.5)! :eek: :double:


Why are you applying a reduction to intensity based on a land interaction?


That is if the storm was making landfall.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#475 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:31 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN ENLARGING 36-NM
RAGGED EYE AS COMPACT RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHTLY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS (LESS THAN -80C)
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM NEAR CONCENTRIC
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW (T6.5), RJTD (T7.0), AND CIMS (T7.1). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT)
RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW
WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SST AND OHC
VALUES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE PERENNIALLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W WILL TRACK WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
LUZON AS THE STR BUILDS, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PALANAN, ISABELA AROUND
TAU 54, DRAG QUICKLY ACROSS LUZON AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS) BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW
DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48, PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 130 KNOTS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON AND INCREASING VWS
WILL REDUCE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 80 KNOTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE SCS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 180
NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. CTCX CONTINUES TO BE
THE RIGHT OF TRACK OUTLIER AND JGSM ON THE LEFT.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW STY 31W TO TURN NORTHWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AS THE CYCLONE STARTS TO
RECURVE AROUND THE STR AXIS AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED
ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER WATER, TEMPERED ONLY BY A COLD SURGE
EVENT IN THE SCS. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS ARE NOW DEPICTING
RECURVATURE IN VARYING DEGREES. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LEFTMOST
(JGSM) AND RIGHTMOST (CTCX) MEMBERS HAS DECREASED TO 480 NM AT TAU
120, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THAT IS ALSO LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#476 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:42 pm

If shear relaxes a little, the 24 hours before landfall will be very interesting.


Image
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#477 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:23 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#478 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:33 pm

Looks like the WSW dip has already begun. The more south it goes will keep the core farther away from cold surge in the north, plus the water south of its projected track is much warmer.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#479 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:55 pm

Image
JMA's track has shifted much further south - now in Isabela- Aurora province border.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#480 Postby ManilaTC » Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:13 pm

Wont be surprised if it tracks into Central Luzon instead by Tuesday. :eek: :eek: :eek:
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