WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

The CDO is about 480 miles across

[Highteeld]

2018OCT26 190000 7.3 904.4 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 6.13 -82.30 EYE 18 IR 92.2 17.51 -135.70 ARCHER HIM-8 21.3

[Extratropical94]

Hi everyone,

I’ve got a basic understanding of the dvorak technique but could someone list out what all the 3letter codes stand for or mean (apart from colour on the image) As CDG etc... can get quite confusing!

Thanks

Sure:

Code: Select all

CODE                    IR TEMP. (°C)
WMG (warm medium gray)          >  +9
OW  (off white)              +9 - -30
DG  (dark gray)             -31 - -41
MG  (medium gray)           -42 - -53
LG  (light gray)            -54 - -63
B   (black)                 -64 - -69
W   (white)                 -70 - -75
CMG (cold medium gray)      -76 - -80
CDG (cold dark gray)            < -80

[Highteeld]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR YUTU (31W) 2018
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10261603
SATCON: MSLP = 913 hPa MSW = 154 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 149.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 137 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.4 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 904 hPa 149 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT261940
CIMSS AMSU: 916 hPa 138 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10261141
ATMS: 917.2 hPa 146.7 knots Date: 10261603
SSMIS: 917.2 hPa 146.7 knots Date: 10261603
CIRA ATMS: 943 hPa 114 knots Date: 10260332

[michelinj]

Sure:

Code: Select all

CODE                    IR TEMP. (°C)
WMG (warm medium gray)          >  +9
OW  (off white)              +9 - -30
DG  (dark gray)             -31 - -41
MG  (medium gray)           -42 - -53
LG  (light gray)            -54 - -63
B   (black)                 -64 - -69
W   (white)                 -70 - -75
CMG (cold medium gray)      -76 - -80
CDG (cold dark gray)            < -80

Thank you!

[Highteeld]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2018 Time : 204000 UTC
Lat : 17:41:24 N Lon : 135:44:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 897.8mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.3 7.3

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 894 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED
30-NM EYE AS RAIN BANDS WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, AS EVIDENCED BY VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS (-82 CELSIUS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND T7.2 FROM CIMMS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 10-15
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL. SST AND OHC VALUES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE
ALSO VERY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD A
BREAK CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE YELLOW SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST RE-BUILDS AND
EXTENDS WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND EXTEND
THE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN STY 31W DOWN TO 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO
230 NM BY TAU 72. NVGM AND CTCX, ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE,
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN EARLY RECURVATURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY EARLY RECURVATURE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY YUTU WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD NORTHERN
LUZON ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER A REINVIGORATED
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL TRACK MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON AS THE STR
ONCE AGAIN WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT A FASTER RATE, DOWN TO 95
KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
SPREADING IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS - OVER 800 NM AT TAU 120. CTCX AND
NVGM ARE THE EXTREME EARLY RECURVE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS, AND JGSM
AND AFUM ARE ON THE FAR LEFT WITH A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK
SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

I doubt there will be an ERC anytime in the near future.

[CryHavoc]

I doubt there will be an ERC anytime in the near future.

https://i.imgur.com/ZMoE70n.png

From ragged to nearly a perfect circle. Amazing.

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive typhoon. It is also large.

[TheAustinMan]

Speaking of that microwave image, the AMSU microwave satellite estimate indicated 171 kts for the intensity, which might be one of the highest values I've ever seen from an objective microwave estimation technique.

[Ptarmigan]

Speaking of that microwave image, the AMSU microwave satellite estimate indicated 171 kts for the intensity, which might be one of the highest values I've ever seen from an objective microwave estimation technique.

171 knots is 197 mph or 316 km/h! If it was on land, that would be 168 mph (multiply by 0.85 from 197 mph) with gusts as high as 252 mph (multiplied by 1.5)!

[CryHavoc]

Speaking of that microwave image, the AMSU microwave satellite estimate indicated 171 kts for the intensity, which might be one of the highest values I've ever seen from an objective microwave estimation technique.

171 knots is 197 mph or 316 km/h! If it was on land, that would be 168 mph (multiply by 0.85 from 197 mph) with gusts as high as 252 mph (multiplied by 1.5)!

Why are you applying a reduction to intensity based on a land interaction?

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2018 Time : 234000 UTC
Lat : 17:44:23 N Lon : 134:48:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 897.8mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 30 km

Center Temp : +13.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 195nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.8 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Incredible. SATCON at 165 knots!


CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10261915
SATCON: MSLP = 906 hPa MSW = 165 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 158.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 147 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -3.8 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 898 hPa 155 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT262200
CIMSS AMSU: 898 hPa 171 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10261915
ATMS: 917.2 hPa 146.7 knots Date: 10261603
SSMIS: 917.2 hPa 146.7 knots Date: 10261603
CIRA ATMS: 943 hPa 114 knots Date: 10260332

[Highteeld]

JTWC remains at 140 knots

31W YUTU 181027 0000 17.7N 134.7E WPAC 140 918

[CrazyC83]

Given the large size, I would have to suspect the pressure is below 900 mb right now. I would personally go with an intensity of 150 kt right now.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 811 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED
27-NM EYE WITH COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH SUPER-DEEP AND COLD CLOUD TOPS (-82 CELSIUS). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI EYE
THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 262115Z SSMIS 37
GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT
AND NEARLY CONCENTRIC DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
10-15 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL. SST AND OHC VALUES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE ALSO VERY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36. AFTERWARD, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND EXTEND THE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
145 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TROUGH-ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN STY 31W DOWN TO 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING UP TO 340
NM BY TAU 72. NVGM AND CTCX - OUTLIERS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE - CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN EARLY RECURVATURE. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY EARLY RECURVATURE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY YUTU WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE OF LUZON STRAIT. IN ADDITION TO THE DIMINISHED OUTFLOW,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT A
FASTER RATE, DOWN TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
SPREADING IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS - OVER 880 NM AT TAU 120. CTCX AND
NVGM ARE THE EXTREME EARLY RECURVE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS, AND JGSM
AND AFUM ARE ON THE FAR LEFT WITH A STRAIGHT WESTWARD AND LATE
RECURVE SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Convection has warmed though since 00z
2018OCT27 014000 7.5 898.2 155.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 17.21 -74.40 EYE 31 IR 63.2 17.81 -134.18 ARCHER HIM-8 22.2

[supercane4867]

It's forming a gigantic outer eyewall