ATL: OSCAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: OSCAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:00 am

AL, 95, 2018102300, , BEST, 0, 190N, 463W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 95, 2018102306, , BEST, 0, 190N, 468W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 95, 2018102312, , BEST, 0, 190N, 473W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 95, 2018102318, , BEST, 0, 190N, 478W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 95, 2018102400, , BEST, 0, 190N, 483W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 180, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
AL, 95, 2018102406, , BEST, 0, 190N, 487W, 25, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041, SPAWNINVEST, al772018 to al952018,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120082
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:28 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean is associated with a broad area
of low pressure located a little over 900 miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move slowly
northward over the next few days into an area where environmental
conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development. A
tropical or subtropical depression could form over the weekend while
the system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Roberts


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:31 am

This isn't getting much attention at all, but there's a good chance this becomes Oscar this weekend. Could be the final named storm of the season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:24 am

The TWO keeps saying depression. Is this expected to be more than a depression?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:37 am

AnnularCane wrote:The TWO keeps saying depression. Is this expected to be more than a depression?

Most of the statistical guidance as well as the GFS/ECMWF predict it will gain TS winds at some point, so I'd say it could very well be more than a depression. Not expecting a hurricane though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:08 am

Could get close to Bermuda sometime next week but luckily it doesn't look like it'll get too strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:52 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean is associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands. This system is expected to move slowly northward over the
next few days into an area where environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development. A tropical or
subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:48 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is associated with a broad area of low pressure located about
900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. This system has
become better organized since yesterday with increased thunderstorm
activity, although the low's circulation is still not well defined.
This disturbance is expected to move northward over the next couple
of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is most likely to form on Friday or
Saturday. After that time, the system is forecast to turn westward
well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:58 am

2 AM.

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about 950 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. This low is expected to move northward
over the next couple of days into an area where upper-level winds
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
or subtropical storm is likely to form on Friday or Saturday. After
that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the
north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:05 am

HWRF is super aggressive on this and brings it to 95kt hurricane. Probably overdone but it would still be some nice free ACEs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:11 am

8 AM:

. A low pressure system centered about 900 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better defined and
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of
organization. This low is expected to move generally northward over
the next couple of days into an area where environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
or subtropical storm is likely to form by early this weekend. After
that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the north
or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby westwind » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:58 am

Low looks well defined and probably closed on vis imagery. With persistent convection this probably meets the criteria for a tropical depression, or perhaps a subtropical depression as convection has been displaced from the center since this disturbance formed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:42 pm

2 PM:

A low pressure system centered nearly 1000 miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
since this morning. However, the low is expected to move generally
northward over the next couple of days into an area where
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form
by early this weekend. After that time, the system is forecast to
turn westward well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:13 pm

Looks like a couple of different small eddy features rotating around a larger circulation. One of them needs become dominate.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:24 pm

Image

Probably a subtropical depression quite soon based on the convection blowing up near that well defined LLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:30 pm

8 PM:

Shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered
about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
become more concentrated during the past several hours. The low is
expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days
into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical or subtropical
storm is expected to form by early this weekend. After that time,
the system is forecast to turn westward well to the north or
northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:51 am

8 AM TWO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands has changed little in organization since
last night. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development and this system will likely become a tropical or
subtropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves generally
northward over the central Atlantic. After that time, the low is
forecast to turn westward and remain well to the north or northeast
of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:19 pm

Lemme guess, it will spin up in the subtropics just like Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce and Leslie
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:29 pm

2 PM TWO:

Recent satellite data indicate that a broad area of low pressure
located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands does not yet have a well-defined center. However, the
system is producing tropical-storm-force winds to the east of the
broad low and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form
tonight or tomorrow. The system is expected to move northward to
north-northeastward over the central Atlantic through tonight, and
then turn westward on Saturday, remaining well to the north or
northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:30 pm

8 PM TWO:

Recent satellite data indicate that a broad area of low pressure
located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands has changed little in organization during the past few
hours. However, the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds
to the east of the center, and a tropical or subtropical storm could
form at any time tonight or tomorrow. The system is expected to
move northward to north-northeastward over the central Atlantic
through tonight, and then turn westward on Saturday, remaining well
to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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