WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#121 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:20 am

Latest discussion. :lol:

WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO
CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE USING
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NEAR THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS). DESPITE LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS LED TO THE
CYCLONE WEAKENING. TY 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AFTER TAU 36, TY 33W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND A SHALLOW STR TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
STEERING. THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HO CHI MINH CITY JUST
PRIOR TO TAU 24. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE REMNANTS OF TY 33W WILL
EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR,
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS.//
NNNN
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NotoSans
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#122 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:22 am

SATCON supports latest intensity estimates from JTWC and JMA. I agree it was underestimated at its peak, but it has weakened considerably, and official agencies are usually slow when it comes to weakening.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11241046
SATCON: MSLP = 994 hPa MSW = 68 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 71.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 60 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 160 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#123 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:11 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 030
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 33W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 10.8N 106.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 106.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.4N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 11.7N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 106.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 12 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

#124 Postby livininit » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:41 pm

Anything to watch?

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
3.4N 179.5E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 092119Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING, SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OR MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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