WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:12 pm

CP, 98, 2018110206, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1589W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 98, 2018110212, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1592W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 98, 2018110218, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1595W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 98, 2018110300, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1598W, 20, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Nothing from the CPHC yet.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:21 pm

CPHC:0%/10%
ACPN50 PHFO 030208
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Nov 2 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure is
located about 1000 miles south of Honolulu. Some subsequent
development of this system is possible over the next few days as it
moves slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Foster
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:12 am

Mid-level heights are pretty high in the area, which is a sign of large scale subsidence, but if it can manage to develop and consolidate in spite of this well east in the Nino box, the sky is the limit. It could be a big if though.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:07 am

CP, 98, 2018110306, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1598W, 20, 1007, LO
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:44 am

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure is
located about 1000 miles south-southwest of Honolulu. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible, while it slowly
moves westward over the next few days.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:37 am

TXPN41 PHFO 031211
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1154 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018
A. INVEST 98C CP982018
B. 03/1130Z
C. 8.4N
D. 161.9W
E. HIMAWARI
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/6HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...0.25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PATTERN
T IS 1.5. MET IS UNAVAILABLE. FINAL T BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.
$$
KINO

Unnamed 98C T1.0/1.0 03/1130Z Central Pacific

CP, 98, 2018110312, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1616W, 25, 1006, LO
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 03, 2018 9:46 am

ECMWF and GFS keep it weak or dissipating all the way to WPAC
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:01 am

Image
Image
Image
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:49 am

FXXT03 EGRR 031559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.11.2018

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 9.7N 175.6E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.11.2018 9.7N 175.6E WEAK
00UTC 08.11.2018 9.8N 174.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 9.7N 173.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2018 9.6N 173.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2018 9.2N 171.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#10 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:49 am

An area of low pressure about 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu,
Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly
to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be conducive for additional development over the next
couple of days as the the system moves toward the west near 10
mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:23 am

Can't be sure if this comes from 98C though
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 179.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.11.2018 60 9.5N 179.3W 1003 26
0000UTC 07.11.2018 72 9.5N 178.4E 1002 26
1200UTC 07.11.2018 84 9.4N 176.4E 999 29
0000UTC 08.11.2018 96 9.6N 174.9E 995 36
1200UTC 08.11.2018 108 9.5N 173.9E 988 50
0000UTC 09.11.2018 120 9.4N 173.0E 983 58
1200UTC 09.11.2018 132 9.5N 172.0E 977 65
0000UTC 10.11.2018 144 9.8N 170.4E 973 66
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:22 am

While GFS and ECMWF remain weak or dissipating, UKMET thinks otherwise

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 8.3N 179.8E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.11.2018 8.0N 178.8E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2018 8.1N 177.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 8.9N 175.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2018 9.2N 174.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2018 9.4N 173.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2018 9.5N 172.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2018 9.7N 171.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2018 10.1N 170.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2018 11.1N 169.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C up

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:27 pm

Even the conservative JMA model is hinting development.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#14 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:33 pm

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#15 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:18 am

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#16 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:41 am

Invest 98C
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 06, 2018:

Location: 7.3°N 178.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 110 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:28 pm

It's already near the dateline so JTWC has to mention it :lol:
ABPW10 PGTW 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/062200Z-070600ZNOV2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
179.4E, APPROXIMATELY 702 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 061857Z SSMIS F-17 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 060929Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS INDICATES
TROUGHING WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
A SMALL CHANNEL OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST AND SLIGHTLY DEVELOP. GFS, AS AN OUTLIER,
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#18 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:18 pm

TXPN22 KNES 070005
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98C)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 6.8N

D. 179.8W

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 3/10
BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 98C

#19 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:19 pm

EURO now develops this but nothing significant.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98C

#20 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:37 am

WWJP25 RJTD 070000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 180E WEST SLOWLY.
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