WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#101 Postby vortextracker » Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:44 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#102 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:38 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 427
NM NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS). TD 33W
IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THROUGH TAU 24,
MODERATE VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 30
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, TD 33W WILL TRACK OVER THE SULU SEA AND BEGIN
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT (TAU 72 SPREAD IS ABOUT 165 NM),
LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN DUE TO HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER VIETNAM (ABOUT TAU 108). IN THE LATER TAUS, MODEL SPREAD GROWS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE
STR CAUSE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED CLOSED
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#103 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:10 am

Both ASCAT and ScatSat indicate that the depression has lost its low-level circulation. It appears to be NW-SE oriented trof. Models are bullish on redevelopment in the SCS in a couple days, though. We'll see if it can finally get organized.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#104 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:25 am

33W THIRTYTHRE 181121 0600 11.1N 121.8E WPAC 25 1005

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#105 Postby NotoSans » Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:14 am

The system originated in the Central Pacific has finally got a name in the South China Sea.

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1829 USAGI (1829) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 221200UTC 11.0N 114.4E FAIR

MOVE WSW 13KT

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 120NM NORTHWEST 30NM SOUTHEAST

FORECAST

24HF 231200UTC 10.3N 110.9E 60NM 70%

MOVE WSW 08KT

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

48HF 241200UTC 10.7N 108.4E 95NM 70%

MOVE W 06KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT

72HF 251200UTC 11.4N 106.4E 130NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#106 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 4:52 pm

Tropical storm Usagi.

WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO FLARING CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON
INFLOW INTO THE OBSCURED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP, SUPPORTED BY A
221740Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 221405Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH 30 AND 35 KT WIND BARBS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND THE
KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 221710Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF 35 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. TS 33W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH AND HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 33W WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL STR FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. TS 33W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
WARM (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36; HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL ANY FURTHER. NEAR TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VIETNAM. COAMPS-NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER AND
KEEPS 33W MOSTLY OVER WATER, THUS PREDICTING AN ERRONEOUS AND
UNLIKELY INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IN LATER TAUS WHEN MOST OTHER
MODEL TRACKS KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER LAND FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS,
AND SOME, INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF, CURVE 33W TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST AND KEEP IT OVER LAND INDEFINITELY. ECMWF AND THE BULK
OF THE REMAINING MODELS ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
UNTIL AFTER TAU 72, WHEN ECMWF AND GFS CURVE TO THE NORTH, AND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES DUE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
THAILAND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED BETWEEN CONSENSUS
AND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS, FAVORING A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#107 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:50 pm

What's the longest gap we went from an invest first being tagged to finally becoming a named storm? This has been around for around 20 days. Has to be up there.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 33W

#108 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:57 pm

I hope it makes a WSW dip and spill into the BOB/ NIO basin just for the novelty of it.
NIO <--- WPAC <--- CPAC
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby vortextracker » Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:03 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/z2TEiqr

nice exhaust going on this system now,250mb
:darrow:
Image
https://imgur.com/ouizUMH
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:44 am

50 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A PERSISTENT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 230545Z AMSR2 COMPOSITE 36GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (PGTW) TO
T3.5 (RJTD) AS WELL AS A 230133Z BYU HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SMALLER BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
IMAGE.
B. TS 33W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. TS 33W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (26-
28C) TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12. TS 33W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 36 AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH
DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby vortextracker » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:34 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/DclIz4H
Looked on the crusp of going major on the above satpic
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:27 pm

Image

Upgraded to a typhoon.

WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
COMPACT AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION FURTHER DEEPENED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE COLOR-ENHANCED 232337Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS (RJTD),
T4.0/65KTS (RCTP), AND T4.5/75KTS (PGTW). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY USAGI WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER A RECEDING
STR. TY 33W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY TO TAU 12 THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 30 SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH AND WILL ERODE RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS INLAND THROUGH SOUTH VIETNAM AND INTO CAMBODIA, WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
REMNANTS WILL SURVIVE AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND BEYOND TAU
72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby vortextracker » Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:52 am

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR USAGI (33W) 2018
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11232338
SATCON: MSLP = 975 hPa MSW = 92 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 94.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 81 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 974 hPa 90 knots Scene: CDO Date: NOV240110
CIMSS AMSU: 996 hPa 51 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 11231341
ATMS: 974.7 hPa 82.6 knots Date: 11231811
SSMIS: 975.0 hPa 100.0 knots Date: 11232338
CIRA ATMS: 993 hPa 54 knots Date: 11221741
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:09 am

JMA has also upgraded Usagi into a typhoon.

Image
Image
TY 1829 (Usagi)
Issued at 06:55 UTC, 24 November 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 24 November>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°40' (9.7°)
E108°40' (108.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - TYPHOON

#115 Postby vortextracker » Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:58 am

typhoon many hrs ago. @17z
Image
https://imgur.com/rlak4N8
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#116 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:16 am

WDPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EYE APPEARED BRIEFLY BUT HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN A 240627Z AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0(65 KTS)
AT RJTD AND T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED CLOSER
TO THE RJTD ESTIMATE BECAUSE THE PGTW CLOUD SIGNATURE WAS T4.5 (77
KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 33W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 33W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE STR RECEDES
EASTWARD, AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HO CHI MINH CITY JUST AFTER TAU 24.
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT APPROACHES VIETNAM, THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TY 33W
SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AFTER TAU 72 AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
POOR AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - TYPHOON

#117 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:17 am

vortextracker wrote:typhoon many hrs ago. @17z


That looks way more intense than a peak of only 70 knots.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#118 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:59 am

After peaking last evening, Usagi is much less organized this morning. Only a partial eyewall remains. Poor outflow. JMA is saying 60 kts.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:06 am

wxman57 wrote:After peaking last evening, Usagi is much less organized this morning. Only a partial eyewall remains. Poor outflow. JMA is saying 60 kts.


:lol: 60 knots 10 minute equals to 65-70 knots 1 minute. Don't be so one sided. Earlier microwave and satellite tells it all. Probrably was a good deal stronger.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:17 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:06 am

33W USAGI 181124 1200 9.7N 108.2E WPAC 65 974

Down to 65 knots.
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