ATL: INVEST 96L - Remnants

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USVIKimmie
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby USVIKimmie » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:05 am

wxman57 wrote:Brief, weak low in a hostile environment which could become a brief, weak TS as it passes just east of the Bahamas on Thursday before merging with the cold front.

Everyone seems to be focused on Bahamas & east coast... the islands have been getting drenched this last week. Between 3-10 inches in 3 hours...

I don't know how to save a satellite loop to share, but the loop early this morning showed blooming mass heading due south of the center of it.
Just trying to get a handle on what the Virgins will have for tomorrow. I'm definitely not a pro... but I honestly don't see us getting much more than scattered showers & north swell

Noobie... I know
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#22 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:23 am

USVIKimmie wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Brief, weak low in a hostile environment which could become a brief, weak TS as it passes just east of the Bahamas on Thursday before merging with the cold front.

Everyone seems to be focused on Bahamas & east coast... the islands have been getting drenched this last week. Between 3-10 inches in 3 hours...

I don't know how to save a satellite loop to share, but the loop early this morning showed blooming mass heading due south of the center of it.
Just trying to get a handle on what the Virgins will have for tomorrow. I'm definitely not a pro... but I honestly don't see us getting much more than scattered showers & north swell

Noobie... I know


Yes, some rain for the NE Caribbean islands over the next 36 hrs. As for the East U.S. Coast, it won't be able to make it that far west before running into a "wall" of strong jetstream winds associated with the very strong cold front that pushes off the SE U.S. Coast on Thursday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#23 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:24 am

Still kind of funny seeing something trying to develop in that part of the tropics this late in the season. If this were in August then there would be alarm bells sounding off across the Florida peninsula, but the same cold front expected to give the state its first significant cold shot of the year is expected to eat this potential storm up as it nears the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#24 Postby msbee » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:37 am

USVIKimmie wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Brief, weak low in a hostile environment which could become a brief, weak TS as it passes just east of the Bahamas on Thursday before merging with the cold front.

Everyone seems to be focused on Bahamas & east coast... the islands have been getting drenched this last week. Between 3-10 inches in 3 hours...

I don't know how to save a satellite loop to share, but the loop early this morning showed blooming mass heading due south of the center of it.
Just trying to get a handle on what the Virgins will have for tomorrow. I'm definitely not a pro... but I honestly don't see us getting much more than scattered showers & north swell

Noobie... I know


Yes, we need to worry about the islands. Most of the islands cannot take much heavy rainfall especially since we have been receiving so much already. I know the ground on St Maarten is saturated and people are still cleaning up after
Saturday's deluge. The roads are still flooded in places. Plus we still have people living under tarps here.
So any more rainfall could cause us quite a few more problems, which we do not need
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#25 Postby USVIKimmie » Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:02 am

msbee wrote:
Yes, we need to worry about the islands. Most of the islands cannot take much heavy rainfall especially since we have been receiving so much already. I know the ground on St Maarten is saturated and people are still cleaning up after
Saturday's deluge. The roads are still flooded in places. Plus we still have people living under tarps here.
So any more rainfall could cause us quite a few more problems, which we do not need


We've been used to wet Novembers... but what we went through last week was worse than I've ever seen in my 16 or so years here. *sigh*
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#26 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:47 am

I think 90% is too high. Would put the actual development chances around 60-70%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#27 Postby redneck51 » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:51 am

USVIKimmie wrote:I don't know how to save a satellite loop to share, but the loop early this morning showed blooming mass heading due south of the center of it.


Image

Here you go..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#28 Postby Buck » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:52 am

I wouldn't be surprised if by the time this thing gets its act together, its already Patty rather than a depression.

OT: I've finally been upgraded to a Cat 4 poster after years and years. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:33 pm

2 PM.

A tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce a large area of disturbed weather over much
of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Although environmental
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for a
tropical depression to form during the next few days, interaction
with land could inhibit tropical cyclone formation. The disturbance
is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few
days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#30 Postby msbee » Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:46 pm

A special weather bulletin from the Meteorological Office St Maarten
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN #1

DATE ISSUED: Monday, November 12, 2018
TIME ISSUED: 04:00PM

VALID UNTIL: Thursday, November 14, 2018
_____________________________________

…A HEAVY RAINFALL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN…

Abundant moisture and instability associated with an approaching active tropical wave (invest 96L) will produce unstable weather conditions across the region from Early Tuesday November 13th through Thursday November 15th 2018.

As the system approaches the area, there is an increased possibility for showers and thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds over the local area. Some of these showers may be heavy and will lead to localized flooding over sections of the island.

Residents in low-lying areas should be vigilant and take the necessary precautions as soils are already saturated. Motorists should avoid driving on flooded streets until the heavy rainfall has tapered off or ended and the floodwaters have receded.

In case there are lightning strikes very close to your location (loud thunder, less than three seconds between lightning discharge and thunder), switch off and disconnect any sensitive electronic equipment. Also, disconnect any phone line from your computer.

Meteorological Department St. Maarten will continue to monitor the situation and keep the public informed through special bulletins.

The next update will be issued at 6:00 am Tuesday November 13th 2018.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:27 pm

Going down.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave that is interacting with an upper-level trough
continues to produce a large area of disturbed weather that
extends from near the Leeward Islands northeastward over the
tropical Atlantic for several hundred miles. This system has
not become any better organized over the past 24 hours, and
environmental conditions may not become as conducive as
previously anticipated. Therefore, the potential for this system
to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone has decreased.
Regardless of development, this system is forecast to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#32 Postby Kazmit » Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:41 pm

I've never seen something given a 90% chance to form not form. This could be a first.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#33 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:09 pm

The system designated PTC 10 last year was given a 90% chance of tropical cyclogenesis within 48 hours, but instead it became an extratropical cyclone with TS-force winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#34 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:25 pm

Well with chances quickly diminishing for future development I think it may be safe to say the season is finally over. See you all next year!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#35 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:13 pm

It’s been a while since I’ve seen some serious back petaling from the nhc lol. This season is all but over finally
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#36 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:03 am

Going down.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 130502
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
that is moving through the Leeward Islands has continued to become
less organized tonight. Environmental conditions are not expected
to become significantly better for development, and the system is
also expected to interact with the islands of the Greater Antilles
during the next few days. Therefore, the potential for this
system to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone continues to
decrease. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#37 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:59 am

Wrap it up. End it. Toss it in the trash.

This season is toast. See y'all next July.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#38 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:53 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Wrap it up. End it. Toss it in the trash.

This season is toast. See y'all next July.


I agree.
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Re: INVEST 96L - Remnants

#39 Postby AJC3 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:22 pm

This is a "pre-emptive strike" post to keep a new thread from being started just in case someone decides they want to.

You can see the continuity in both the surface and 850 MB vort analyses... (time sensitive)

https://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ind ... s=7&loop=1
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 4java.html

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles northeast
of the central Bahamas is producing winds to near gale force and an
area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is embedded within
a large scale frontal zone, and additional development is not
anticipated.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located a few hundred miles northeast of the
central Bahamas is producing winds to near gale force and an
area of showers and thunderstorms. However, this system is embedded
within a large scale frontal zone, and additional development is not
anticipated. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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