ATL: INVEST 96L - Remnants

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:42 am

AL, 96, 2018111006, , BEST, 0, 137N, 435W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2018111012, , BEST, 0, 138N, 452W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS042, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042,
AL, 96, 2018111018, , BEST, 0, 139N, 469W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS042, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042,
AL, 96, 2018111100, , BEST, 0, 141N, 486W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS042, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042,
AL, 96, 2018111106, , BEST, 0, 144N, 503W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, SPAWNINVEST, al782018 to al962018,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120110
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:52 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser is gradually becoming better
defined and continues to produce strong gusty winds mainly to the
east of the disturbance. Although no significant development of
this system is expected during the next day or two, conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive by Tuesday, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of
the week while the system moves near or north of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:16 am

You can see the circulation below the high clouds.Saved loop.



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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:46 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers activity has increased and become a little better organized
today in association with a tropical wave located about 350 miles
east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to gradually become more conducive for development by
Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is expected to form
by the middle of the week. The system will move westward to
west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of
the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:28 pm

I'll take "Something I Didn't expect in mid-November" for $800, Alex.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby marionstorm » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:29 pm

This better be a weak storm!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:04 pm

As of 18:00 UTC Nov 11, 2018:

Location: 15.7°N 56.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:53 pm

With the Atlantic ridge holding stronger and longer over the next 5 days or so this system could definitely be a threat to at least the Turks and Caicos & the eastern Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:17 pm

NDG wrote:With the Atlantic ridge holding stronger and longer over the next 5 days or so this system could definitely be a threat to at least the Turks and Caicos & the eastern Bahamas.

The way you make it sound FL and the East Coast should monitor closely?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:21 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:With the Atlantic ridge holding stronger and longer over the next 5 days or so this system could definitely be a threat to at least the Turks and Caicos & the eastern Bahamas.

The way you make it sound FL and the East Coast should monitor closely?
their front coming off fl that pull it out may close eastern bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby msbee » Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:33 pm

St Maarten had a micro burst last night. Almost 4 hours of intense rain dumped over 5 inches in my little garden rain gauge.
No word from our Met Office as to official rainfall.

Now Crown Weather Services says this about 96L:

"....the big question is will Invest 96-L move right across the northern Caribbean islands or will it move just north of the islands. Analysis of upper level winds show that it is going to be a really close call between a track just north of the islands and a track right across the northern Caribbean islands.

Either way, this tropical disturbance will likely bring heavy rainfall with gusty winds and rough seas beginning across the Leeward Islands on Monday that continues into Tuesday. This squally weather is expected to spread across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday and then across Hispaniola on Tuesday night and Wednesday."
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby boca » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:05 pm

With the front passing thru Florida I feel we are pretty safe regarding 96L but I think the Turks and Caicos will have to monitor it.If this were October I would say Florida would have to monitor this, since it’s November the fronts are strong enough to recurve this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby Buck » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:24 pm

I’d say Bermuda should keep an eye on it too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:22 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from near
the Lesser Antilles northeastward over the tropical Atlantic for
several hundred miles is associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave and an upper-level trough of low pressure. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this disturbance have increased today,
and environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone
by the middle of the week. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north
of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the
southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:59 pm

00z Best Track:

As of 00:00 UTC Nov 12, 2018:

Location: 16.0°N 57.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby arlwx » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:26 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from near
the Leeward Islands northeastward over the tropical Atlantic for
several hundred miles is associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave and an upper-level trough. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with this disturbance have changed little in organization
tonight, however environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive to allow for the potential development of a
tropical or subtropical cyclone by the middle of the week. The
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the
next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby USVIKimmie » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:55 am

Since the time change, when does the NHC publish their updates? I realize storm season is winding down, too, so not as urgent.

I keep looking for the 5am... which is 6 in the VI, and it's almost 7am... and crickets...? :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:37 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of
the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this
morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few
days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:34 am

12z Best Track:
AL, 96, 2018111212, , BEST, 0, 165N, 585W, 30, 1008, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:44 am

Brief, weak low in a hostile environment which could become a brief, weak TS as it passes just east of the Bahamas on Thursday before merging with the cold front.
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