WPAC: Toraji - Tropical Depression

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WPAC: Toraji - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:12 am

91W INVEST 181111 1200 7.4N 128.7E WPAC 15 1008

Potential SCS system up.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:18 am

91W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 13, 2018:

Location: 6.9°N 122.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:34 am

91W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 14, 2018:

Location: 8.1°N 118.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:09 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 151344Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHT SURFACE WRAPPING WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION. 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WEST, BUT DISAGREE ON WHETHER IT WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:16 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 114.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY 432
NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
A 151344Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SOME SLIGHT
SURFACE WRAPPING WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION. 91W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST, BUT DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:24 pm

Upgraded to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY
351 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 160919Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AND
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC) WITH TWO POSSIBLE
SPINNERS. FORMATIVE BUT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
BEGINNING TO FEED INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES A
BROAD, ELONGATED WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK IN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BUT DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING AND OVERALL INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:23 pm

TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 162230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 112.8E TO 10.2N 106.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 112.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES. A 161938Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 91W IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W
WILL TRACK WEST TOWARDS VIETNAM AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172230Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#8 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:26 am

Upgraded to TS Toraji by JMA at 09Z.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:01 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 112.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY
310 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES. A 161938Z SSMI
85GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 91W IS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 91W WILL TRACK WEST AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:06 am

TXPQ29 KNES 170911
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 17/0830Z

C. 11.0N

D. 112.3E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT SSMIS AND AMSR2 DATA
INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS POORLY ORGANIZED. SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS
THAN 1.25 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN
A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED
ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: Depression 32W

#11 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:31 am

News comes from JTWC:
Tropical Depression 32W has formed.
12z Best Track:
WP, 32, 2018111712, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1110E, 30, 1000, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpG12018 to wp322018,
32W INVEST 181117 1200 10.7N 111.0E WPAC 30 1000
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Re: WPAC: TS Toraji (JTWC- TD 32W)

#12 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:52 am

Image
Image
TS 1827 (Toraji)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 17 November 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 17 November>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°10' (11.2°)
E110°40' (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 170 km (90 NM)
SE 110 km (60 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TS Toraji (JTWC- TD 32W)

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:14 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT BALL
OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171407Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HEDGED
BETWEEN THE CENTER POSITION INDICATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW FIX BASED ON EIR IMAGERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KTS) AND THERE IS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE KNES AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS), SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS). TD 32W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH SEPARATES THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. AFTER TAU 12, TD 32W
WILL TRACK UNDER THE WESTERN STR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH COAMPS-GFS AND HWRF THE SOUTHERN
OUTLIERS. ALL MODELS BUT COAMPS-GFS DEPICT TD 32W MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE NEAR TERM. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY TAU 6 TO THE NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM. AFTER TAU 12, TD 32W WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND
EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
RE-DEVELOPING 32W WHEN IT RE-EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND
AND CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TS Toraji (JTWC- TD 32W)

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:15 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 109.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 109.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.8N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.4N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 108.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 32W MADE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF VIETNAM AT APPROXIMATELY
18/00Z, ABOUT 15NM SOUTH OF CAM RANH BAY (VVCR), WHICH IS REPORTING
SUSTAINED EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 6-14 KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR
1010MB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 180240Z METOP-
B 89GHZ MHS IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING AND
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER LAND. BASED ON THE WEAK OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND
AFTER TAU 36, REGENERATION THROUGH TAU 72 IS ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z
IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Toraji - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:36 am

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER TOP AND OCCLUDING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SUPPORTED BY A 200652Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL NOTCH FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.2 (32 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD TORAJI IS
TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING SINCE RESTARTING
WARNING
S FOR TD 32W THUS ESTABLISHING THE FORECAST REASONING
B. TD 32W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE
RIDGE EXTENSION BREAKS OFF AROUND TAU 12 AND FORMS A SECOND ANTI-
CYCLONE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SHIFT IN PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TD TORAJI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
MAYLAY PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, EXITING INTO THE BAY OF
BENGAL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF THAILAND WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO
30 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL PREVENT
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE MALACCA STRAIT WITH AN INTENSITY OF
AROUND 30 KNOTS WHERE HIGH VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 25 KNOTS
WHICH IS BELOW BASIN WARNING CRITERIA. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT REFORMS, MANY MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS WERE UNAVAILABLE
CAUSING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: Toraji - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:52 am

Toraji's remnants appear to have entered NIO territory. Some models, including ECMWF, were redeveloping this into a TC but have backed off.

32W TORAJI 181121 0600 7.0N 99.3E WPAC 20 1008

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