WPAC: MAN-yi - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 34W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:19 pm

Watches and warnings up.

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 192256
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 34W Special Advisory Number 1A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
856 AM ChST Tue Nov 20 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lukunor and Losap
in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Chuuk Lagoon, Fanau,
Ulul and Puluwat in Chuuk State.

However, residents of southern Pohnpei State and the Marianas
should carefully monitor the progress of Tropical Depression 34W.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM CHST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...4.5N 156.2E

About 95 miles east-northeast of Nukuoro
About 110 miles southwest of Sapwuafik
About 180 miles east-southeast of Lukunor
About 220 miles southwest of Pohnpei
About 290 miles southeast of Losap
About 360 miles southeast of Chuuk
About 995 miles southeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CHST...2200 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 34W
was located near Latitude 4.5 degrees North and Longitude 156.2
degrees East. 34W is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with an increase in forward speed
over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. 34W is forecast to
intensify the next couple days, possibly becoming a tropical storm
tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 1100 AM then followed by the scheduled advisory
at 200 PM this afternoon.

$$

Chan
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 34W

#22 Postby livininit » Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 34W Intermediate Advisory Number 1B
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
1101 AM ChST Tue Nov 20 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Typhoon watch now in effect for Faraulep and Puluwat. A Tropical
Storm warning is now in effect for Chuuk Lagoon. A Tropical Storm
watch is now in effect for Satawal.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is now in effect for Faraulep in Yap State and for
Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chuuk Lagoon, Lukunor and
Losap in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Satawal in Yap State, and
Fananu and Ulul in Chuuk State.

However, residents of southern Pohnpei State and the Marianas
should carefully monitor the progress of Tropical Depression 34W.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 34W

#23 Postby Guamphoon » Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:24 am

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE EAST THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

* WAVES/SEAS...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 14 FEET OR HIGHER BY THURSDAY MORNING
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE 34W PASSES TO THE MARIANAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 34W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:40 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (THIRTYFOUR)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (THIRTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
NORTH OF NUKUORO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 192316Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION, CONSISTENT WITH A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH 25 KNOTS ON THE PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 34W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TD
34W TO INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT FIRST, TO AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT (SPREAD IS 140
NM IF NAVGEM, WHICH IS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK BUT FASTER, IS
EXCLUDED) THROUGH TAU 72. DESPITE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 34W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 96, VWS IS EXPECTED TO GET VERY HIGH AND
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT BEGINS ETT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THE CYCLONE WILL RECURVE BUT
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED AFTER MAKING THE TURN
ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. AS A RESULT OF HIGH VARIATION IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 34W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:45 am

Impressive burst...

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 34W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:49 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 34W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:53 am

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Faraulep in Yap State and
for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chuuk Lagoon, Lukunor,
Losap, Fananu, Ulul, and Puluwat in Chuuk State and for Satawal in
Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam and Rota.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:23 am

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm Man-yi.

TS 1828 (Man-yi)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 20 November 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N4°35' (4.6°)
E153°40' (153.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°40' (7.7°)
E148°00' (148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°35' (12.6°)
E141°10' (141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55' (16.9°)
E137°50' (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 November>
Center position of probability circle N18°05' (18.1°)
E137°50' (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 November>
Center position of probability circle N19°10' (19.2°)
E137°55' (137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Radius of probability circle 700 km (375 NM)

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Man-Yi

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:23 am

JMA has classified Tropical Storm Man-yi.

Image

TS 1828 (Man-yi)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 20 November 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N4°35' (4.6°)
E153°40' (153.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°55' (5.9°)
E151°30' (151.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°40' (7.7°)
E148°00' (148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°35' (12.6°)
E141°10' (141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55' (16.9°)
E137°50' (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:36 pm

Man-yi certainly isn't looking too bad right now at this point in its development.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:24 pm

Peak intensity up to 105 knots and has it passing south of Guam stronger as a 90 knots Cat 2.

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 49 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEING OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 201121Z
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALED THE LLCC IS NORTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE ACCOMPANYING PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 34W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 34W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TD
34W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HWRF MODEL, WHICH INTENSIFIES THE
SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS. THE
HWRF MODEL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ONLY ABOUT 130 NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 34W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 96, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY AS IT BEGINS ETT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IN A RECURVE SCENARIO. SEVERAL KEY
MEMBERS (GALWEM, ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND JGSM) SUGGEST
THE CIRCULATION WILL SLOW AND TURN BACK WESTWARD. EACH OF THESE
MEMBERS SHOW THE INTENSITY MUCH LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY FORECAST,
ALLOWING THEIR TRACK TO BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES THAT RECURVE THE CYCLONE IN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
ALTERNATE SCENARIO, ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED OF
THE RECURVING MODELS, HAS INCREASED THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE TO
OVER 1000 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:54 pm

What a mess of the ensembles
Image
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby livininit » Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:57 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING SYSTEM THAT HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE TRACING THE
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES THAT REFLECTS THE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND EXCELLENT
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TS 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A HIGH ZONAL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 34W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND ALLOW TS
34W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING TO A WESTWARD COMPONENT.
AFTER TAU 48, TS 34W WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TURN
MORE POLEWARD. THERE IS MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MAN-YI WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
ENTERS A COL AREA BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND ANOTHER
BUILDING STR TO THE WEST. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS
OUTFLOW DIMINISHES, IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE VWS.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT TYPHOON INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY DISAGREE TOWARD
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A POSSIBLE BIFURCATED
SCENARIO: ONE LEADING TO A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AND ANOTHER
SUGGESTING A LOOPING MOTION WITH AN EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW
OF THIS, ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEEDS, LEND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby vortextracker » Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:02 pm

Looking a little sheared on satpic atm, shear (increases) to W-NW on the plots.
Image
https://imgur.com/dFnJI3x

Image
https://imgur.com/IW4vAig

Image
https://imgur.com/W1mVEYl
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby livininit » Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:29 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 553 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND EXPANDING SYSTEM
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO WRAP COMPLETELY AROUND
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI, SUPPORTED BY AN ANALYSIS OF
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES FROM 202357Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN VIEW OF A T3.9 (63 KNOTS) AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATE, AND A 55 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 202056Z.
OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING MAN-YI IS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VWS, AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE ONLY HINDRANCE IS THE SINGLE, WESTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, PROVIDING MODERATE LEVELS OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
TS 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE OTHER THAN A REDUCTION IN THE
PEAK INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 34W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, THOUGH THE TRACK WILL
BECOME STEADILY MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT TO
A MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTATION. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72,
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SHARPLY TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THE STR WEAKENS
AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS AND
MODERATE WESTERLY OUTFLOW, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT
TAU 36. HOWEVER, AFTER THIS POINT AND THROUGH TAU 72, INCREASING VWS
WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS MAN-YI WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
ENTERS A WEAK STEERING PATTERN IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN THE STR TO
THE EAST AND A BUILDING STR TO THE WEST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS INTO THE COL REGION,
THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO THE NORTH. BEYOND THIS POINT, INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AGAIN,
MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A
COLD DRY AIR MASS SURGING SOUTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AFTER TAU 72, DEPICTING A BIFURCATION SCENARIO. THE AFUM,
NAVGEM, HWRF AND JGSM MODELS SHOW AN EQUATORWARD LOOP RESULTING IN A
WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 96, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS
INCLUDING GFS, ECMWF, COAMPS AND THE CONSENSUS SHOW A SHARP RECURVE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:20 am

50 kt might be a little on the high side.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby vortextracker » Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:52 am

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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:31 am

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 31 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND EXTENSIVE
RAIN BANDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 210626Z GMI 36
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING FEATURES
EVIDENT IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BECAUSE OF
A 202152Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) MAKE THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE. TS 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE
TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE COLLECTIVE CHANGE IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, THE STR WILL CONTINUE STEERING TS 34W WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND TEMPORARILY TURN THE TRACK
NORTHWARD. THOUGH TAU 36, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36,
HIGH VWS WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 34W WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND TURN
WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
HIGH VWS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE CYCLONE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EVERY MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS
PREDICTS THE WESTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE
TRACKS SHOW SOME VARIABILITY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO CAPTURE THIS SLOW WESTWARD TURN. BASED ON THE EVOLVING
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:19 am

Image
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:40 am

Interesting microwave signature, looks like a developing eye.

Image
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