WPAC: MAN-yi - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby NotoSans » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:20 pm

Both the position and intensity estimates from JMA are wrong, I would say.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:37 pm

Image

Indeed. Noe upgraded to a typhoon.

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 27 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-MOVING, EXPANSIVE, AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM THAT HAS FORMED A PINHOLE 3-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED JUST BEHIND THE EIR PINHOLE EYE AND ON TOP OF THE DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 211756Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PGUA AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TY 34W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, THE STR WILL CONTINUE STEERING TY 34W WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. AFTERWARD, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND SHIFT THE TRACK NORTHWARD. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR
TERM, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO
75 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES. AFTER TAU 48, TY 34W WILL
SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES DUE TO INITIAL
EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SPREAD
BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTERWARD. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY MAN-YI WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE ROBUST WESTERLY OUTFLOW WILL SUSTAIN
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UP TO 80 KNOTS AT TAU 96; AFTERWARD,
MODERATE VWS, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, BRINGING THE INTENSITY DOWN
TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, REACHING A SPAN OF OVER 600 NM WITH JGSM ON
THE EXTREME LEFT AND NVGM ON THE EXTREME RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:45 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 NOV 2018 Time : 204000 UTC
Lat : 10:02:39 N Lon : 143:06:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 971.4mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.0 4.8

Center Temp : -81.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.1 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:50 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 212116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Man-yi (34W) Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
716 AM ChST Thu Nov 22 2018

...MAN-YI IS NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Fais and Ulithi in
Yap State.

A Typhoon Watch is no longer in effect for Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning is no longer in effect for Satawal and
Faraulep in Yap State.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Fais and Ulithi in
Yap State.

A Typhoon Watch is no longer in effect for Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning is no longer in effect for Satawal and
Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota in
the Mariana Islands.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...10.1N 143.0E

About 150 miles northwest of Faraulep
About 170 miles east of Fais
About 230 miles east of Ulithi
About 335 miles northwest of Satawal
About 335 miles east of Yap

About 260 miles south-southwest of Guam
About 315 miles south-southwest of Rota
About 380 miles south-southwest of Tinian
About 390 miles south-southwest of Saipan


Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...WNW...290 degrees at 31 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Man-Yi was
located near Latitude 10.1 degrees North and Longitude
143.0 degrees East. Man-Yi is moving west-northwest at 31 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
dramatic decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph. Man-Yi is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
40 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 175 miles to the northeast and up to 140 miles
elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Ziobro
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby vortextracker » Wed Nov 21, 2018 5:50 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/u4elQ73

Image
https://imgur.com/w6tJVAc

looks a CDO structure of a cat1 typhoon without a visible eye atm.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

TXPQ21 KNES 212130
TCSWNP

A. 34W (MAN-YI)

B. 21/2030Z

C. 9.9N

D. 143.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/GMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. THE
1918Z AMSU PASS SHOWS A CLEAR EYE FEATURE. DT OF 5.0 IS BASED ON CENTER
EMBEDDED IN W. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/1756Z 9.6N 143.9E GMI
21/1918Z 9.8N 143.3E AMSU


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:18 pm

Image
Image

Pinhole. Looks stronger than 65 knots.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:45 pm

Image
Pinhole
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:11 pm

It doesn't have too much time left in the most favorable conditions, but it's making the most of them for sure.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:49 pm

Up to 75 knots.


34W MAN-YI 181122 0000 10.6N 141.8E WPAC 75 967
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:57 pm

JMA says 55kts...
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby vortextracker » Wed Nov 21, 2018 8:03 pm

Last edited by vortextracker on Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:09 pm

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11212321
SATCON: MSLP = 968 hPa MSW = 99 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 100.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 88 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 300 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 970 hPa 90 knots Scene: CDO Date: NOV220110
CIMSS AMSU: 966 hPa 82 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 11212321
ATMS: 984.8 hPa 66.6 knots Date: 11211526
SSMIS: 977.0 hPa 106.0 knots Date: 11212042
CIRA ATMS: 984 hPa 63 knots Date:
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:59 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO EXPAND AS MORE RAIN BANDS FORMED,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. THE SYSTEM ALSO MAINTAINED A
WELL-DEFINED EYE, NOW AT A 10-NM DIAMETER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP
WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 212336Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGUA DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T4.5/77KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TY 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 34W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UP TO TAU 36 UNDER
THE STR. AFTERWARD, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND SHIFT THE TRACK NORTHWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, PEAKING
AT 95 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 72 AS VWS INCREASES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY MAN-YI WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD
AS THE STR BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY RECEDES. MODERATE
VWS, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, BRINGING THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 40 KNOTS
BY TAU 120. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, REACHING A SPAN OF OVER 650 NM WITH JGSM ON THE EXTREME
LEFT AND CTCX ON THE EXTREME RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:01 pm

739
WTPQ31 PGUM 220339
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Man-yi (34W) Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
139 PM ChST Thu Nov 22 2018

...TYPHOON MAN-YI QUICKLY PASSING NORTH OF FAIS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Fais and Ulithi in
Yap State.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...11.1N 141.0E

About 100 miles north-northeast of Fais
About 110 miles northeast of Ulithi
About 225 miles east-northeast of Yap
About 305 miles west-southwest of Guam
About 420 miles southwest of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...85 mph
Present movement...WNW...295 degrees at 26 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM ChST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located
near Latitude 11.1 degrees North and Longitude 141.0 degrees East.
Man-yi is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 26 mph and is
expected to maintain this motion through this evening before turning
to the northwest and slowing down on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph. Additional
intensification is forecast through Friday morning when it is
expected to reach its peak intensity of about 110 mph.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 40 miles,
except out to 10 miles to the southwest. Tropical storm force winds
extend outward from the center up to 145 miles, except out to 65
miles to the southwest.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at this afternoon at 500 PM followed by the next scheduled
advisory at 800 PM.

$$

W. Aydlett
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby vortextracker » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:25 pm

TXPQ21 KNES 220323
TCSWNP

A. 34W (MAN-YI)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 11.1N

D. 141.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EYE FEATURE DESPITE THERE
BEING NO WARM ANOMALY IN EIR. DT OF 4.5 IS BASED ON CENTER EMBEDDED IN
LG. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

22/0012Z 10.7N 141.7E AMSU
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:16 am

Up to 80 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1109 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE
PERSISTENT STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220650Z F-16 SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TY 34W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 34W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECURVE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO JAPAN AFTER TAU 24. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOW THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION AND
TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY
34W. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, QUICKLY-EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 48 WITH A 225NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
WITH A 335NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE BULK OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING EXCEPT NAVGEM AND JGSM, WHICH MAINTAIN
TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FAVORS A RAPID WEAKENING SCENARIO AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION
SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, WHICH WILL ADVECT
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM (I.E., THE JGSM AND NAVGEM
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY). OVERALL, THERE IS A
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT DAY 4 TO 5 TRACK FORECAST,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:18 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 NOV 2018 Time : 094000 UTC
Lat : 12:22:48 N Lon : 138:59:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 968.3mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.4 4.4

Center Temp : -82.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.6 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:27 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:34 am

All watches and warnings canceled as fast moving Man-yi exits the area.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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