WPAC: MAN-yi - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 4:50 pm

Cat 2 85 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 698 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A ROBUST CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221801Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND A MICROWAVE
EYE, UPON WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS,
BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
T5.0 (90 KTS), AND THE 221647Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81 KTS. STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FUELING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION
DESPITE THE HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS. TY 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 34W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. A
STRONG, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO JAPAN AFTER
TAU 24. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
IS FORECAST TO SLOW THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION AND TURN THE
SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY TAU 36. TY 34W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 90 KTS BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE ROBUST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SSTS. HOWEVER, WEAKENING UPPER AIR
DIVERGENCE, ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUSTAINED
HIGH VWS, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 34W AFTER TAU 12. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT 220 NM SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, WITH
ECMWF TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED KINK IN THE FORECAST TRACK, AND GFS TO THE WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
WITH A 425NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE BULK OF THE
MODELS INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING EXCEPT NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS
TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FAVORS A RAPID WEAKENING SCENARIO AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE,
WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS,
BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AND HWRF AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS-NAVGEM AND SHIPS-GFS. OVERALL, THERE IS A
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AT LATER TAUS.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBJECT TO LOWER-
LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#62 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:25 pm

34W MAN-YI 181123 0000 14.5N 136.5E WPAC 90 956
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:45 am

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, A 230407Z AMSR2 36GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 90
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH. TY 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 34W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A STRONG, BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH OF JAPAN. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO ADVECT COOLER, MORE
STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SHARP WEAKENING
TREND. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, QUICKLY-EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT,
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 24 WITH A 276NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
WITH A 651NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH INCONSISTENT MODEL FORECASTS, WHICH NOW
INDICATE A RECURVE TRACK/WEAK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT),
REFLECT A CHALLENGING FORECAST SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH TY 34W WILL BEGIN
ETT NEAR TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, TY 34W IS NOT FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A DISSIPATION SCENARIO. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING SCENARIO,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#64 Postby NotoSans » Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:10 am

Another example showing embedded centre pattern might overestimate intensity.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#65 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:29 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 662 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED
AND RAIN BANDS SLIGHTLY UNRAVELED. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS
STILL DEEP AND CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS LINED UP AHEAD OF A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE COLOR-ENHANCED 232153Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES T4.5/77KTS (RCTP), T5.0/90KTS (RJTD), AND
T4.5/77KTS (PGTW) AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS)OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MAN-YI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL PICK UP SPEED AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS THEN
REORIENTS TO THE NORTH. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STR IS FORECAST TO BRING IN DRY AND COOLER AIR WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID WEAKENING, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THERE IS AN
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
THE SHAPE OF THE FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SPAN
AND TIMING, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#66 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:22 am

Hot towers are once again firing near the center - this one is not done yet

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#67 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:18 am

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
CENTER, AND RAIN BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 240626Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE WHICH
SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TY 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 34W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
RE-ORIENTS TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE AS HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS
A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE TRACKS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK, NUDGED TOWARD THE
ECMWF AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#68 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:51 pm

It actually looks pretty good right now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Typhoon

#69 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:58 am

Uhhh... so JMA and JTWC assessed this to be 70-75kt typhoon @ 12Z...

Image
Image
:hmm:
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:12 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND DISORGANIZING SYSTEM, WITH A
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC BECOMING EVIDENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
251731Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE LLCC IS EXPOSED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION, PRESSURED BY WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC AND SUPPORTING MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT 60 KNOTS, ON ANALYSIS
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T3.0 (45 KTS), A
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM KNES ESTIMATE, AND
AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (60 KTS). THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MUCH MORE COMPLEX OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX
HOURS, WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLC, PROVIDING INCREASED WESTERLY VWS, NOW ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15-20
KNOTS, BUT 180 DEG OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, LEADING TO
THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE. THIS COMBINED WITH A
REDUCTION IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HAS OFFSET THE HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), ALLOWING FOR THE RAPID WEAKENING EVIDENT IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TS 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 34W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE, WITH THE TRACK BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTH, THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
BY TAU 36, AND THEREAFTER ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 34W WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGH
VWS AND RELATIVELY LOW OUTFLOW. THE RATE OF WEAKENING WILL DECREASE
SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT, AS THE HIGH VWS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING OUTFLOW
AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH.
TS 34W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36,
COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS A 30 KNOT SYSTEM, AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UNDER THE WESTERLIES.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG DISAGREEMENT AFTER TAU 36,
AFTER THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THERE REMAINS AN ALTERNATE
DISSIPATION SCENARIO, UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA PRIOR TO COMPLETION OF ETT. THE GALWEM MODEL IS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH A MORE GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN, WHILE THE NAVGEM
AND JGSM ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS AND SHOW A MORE RAPID TURN, THEN
DISSIPATION AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 72. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION, INSIDE AND SLOWER
THAN THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, THEN INSIDE AND FASTER THROUGH
TAU 72. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:20 am

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
WHICH DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE MSI LOOP ALSO REVEALS AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5-3.5 (35-55 KTS) AND A 260441Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 42 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST), AND LIMITED OUTFLOW, IS MARGINAL. TS 34W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 34W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS UNDER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. IT SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 UNLESS HIGH VWS AND COOL SST
CAUSE IT TO DISSIPATE SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD
CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT BUT FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:44 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI)
WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 261244Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 25-29
KT WIND BARBS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND ABOVE THE
KNES ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SSTS), AND OUTFLOW LIMITED BY TD
34W APPROACHING THE MIDLATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL JET, THUS LEAVING TD 34W
UNABLE TO SUPPORT ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION. TD 34W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 34W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS THROUGH
TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 30 KNOTS TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND SOME MESOSCALE
MODELS PREDICT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36, WHEN TD 34W WILL
HAVE COMPLETED ETT AND WILL HAVE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EXCELLENT CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR
ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT, LENDING TO OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MAN-yi - Post-Tropical

#73 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:41 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 23.4N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 26.2N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 30.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 133.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. A 270852Z CORIOLIS WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WITH WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES FUELING PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS. THIS INCIPIENT
FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 27/07Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
CROSS-SECTION SHOWING A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A 270109Z ASCAT
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.0
(25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.
TD 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS CLEARLY
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TD 34W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY
TAU 24. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE BULK OF NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271200Z IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN
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