WPAC: Invest 93W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: Invest 93W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:42 pm

93W INVEST 181126 0000 7.0N 164.0E WPAC 15 0
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:48 pm

Shear right now is low overall and top models (GFS and ECMWF) on their latest runs don't develop it what would prevent this from developing increasing shear, dry air?

Image

Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#3 Postby vortextracker » Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:54 am

looks embedded within a larger gyre along the trough.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:36 am

93W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 26, 2018:

Location: 7.9°N 161.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:44 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 261330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM IN EITHER DIRECTION FROM 7.4N 163.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 163.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.4N 163.0E, APPROXIMATELY 656 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260539Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). AN 252214Z ASCAT METOP-B
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 93W WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP, BUT REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY BUT TIMING
AND INTENSITY VARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271330Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:46 pm

Well that was a surprise.

NAVGEM barely develops this now. EURO and GFS continues with no development.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:40 pm

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 261948
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
548 AM ChST Tue Nov 27 2018

PMZ173-174-272000-
POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
548 AM ChST Tue Nov 27 2018

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TCFA...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE NEAR 7N163E.
THIS IS ABOUT 115 MILES NORTH OF KOSRAE AND 330 MILES EAST OF
POHNPEI. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THIS MEANS THAT
THE DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY BUT COULD DRIFT SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH CLOSER TO KOSRAE TODAY BEFORE LOOPING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS KOSRAE TODAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH AND ROUGH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS KOSRAE AND EASTERN POHNPEI STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOAT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL THE WEATHER IMPROVES.

RESIDENTS OF BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND HEED THE INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WFO GUAM WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/

$$

M. AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:27 pm

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert? Really?

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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:50 am

FXXT03 EGRR 270359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93W ANALYSED POSITION : 6.5N 163.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.11.2018 6.5N 163.5E WEAK
12UTC 27.11.2018 6.5N 164.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.11.2018 7.6N 165.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.11.2018 9.2N 164.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.11.2018 11.0N 162.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.11.2018 12.9N 159.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.11.2018 14.9N 154.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.11.2018 16.0N 150.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.12.2018 16.4N 147.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.12.2018 16.8N 144.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.12.2018 17.0N 141.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.12.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

The GFS shear forecast shows increasing shear on the path of this system
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:43 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 165.6E, APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY AND A 271419Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING. A 271037Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC
IS STILL ELONGATED WITH 20-25KT INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH. THE UL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH VWS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS
OVER THE LLCC OFFSET BY STRONGER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SSTS REMAIN
FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK QUICKLY TURNING NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEAR FUTURE, BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:45 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 272101

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (W OF MARSHALL ISLANDS)

B. 27/2030Z

C. 8.66N

D. 166.34E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/27HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:49 pm

HWRF failing on wind forecast for 6 runs now
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:55 pm

Cancelled :lol:

WTPN21 PGTW 280200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271321Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
271330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N 166E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 272207Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTION. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM KWAJALEIN 105 NM TO THE EAST SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED FROM 19 KNOTS TO 11 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED
KWAJALEIN. THE UL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH VWS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL JUST TO THE NORTH HAS STIFLED
OUTFLOW, LEADING TO THE DIMINISHED AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. SSTS
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED FURTHER OFF THEIR
PREDICTED INTENSITY, WITH MOST MAINTAINING MERELY AN AREA OF
MARGINALLY ENHANCED WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WAVELIKE FEATURE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.
//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#14 Postby vortextracker » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:51 pm

THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM


Image
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#15 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:52 pm

Doesn't look very impressive, to me.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#16 Postby vortextracker » Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:56 pm

Was only modeled by nav and cmc from the getgo as a potential,
modest tc never as a impressive system. Until the cell dis<pates
its a waiting game. These ER/wave spawned invests that mirror
each other on both side's of the EQ are typically weak on one
side of the eq while the other gets going (spac invest). :ggreen:


Image
https://imgur.com/iObFBdK
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:36 am

:D :lol: I wonder...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9N 166E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 165.5E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 272207Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK
CONVECTION. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM KWAJALEIN 105 NM TO THE EAST
SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM 19 KNOTS TO 11 KNOTS AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHED KWAJALEIN. THE UL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL,
WITH MODERATE VWS (15-20 KTS) WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL JUST TO THE NORTH HAS STIFLED
OUTFLOW, LEADING TO THE DIMINISHED AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. SSTS
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED FURTHER OFF THEIR
PREDICTED INTENSITY, WITH MOST MAINTAINING MERELY AN AREA OF
MARGINALLY ENHANCED WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WAVELIKE FEATURE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:28 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 165.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 163.2E, APPROXIMATELY
321 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH WEAK FLARING
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VWS AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT ARE
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS
A WAVE WITH SOME WEAK ENHANCED WINDS PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#19 Postby vortextracker » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:10 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/H0oLBUM
EPS thinks maybe this could make a name in the SCS.


Image
https://imgur.com/HL90hdw
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:38 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 163.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY
436 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 290505Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A WEAKLY DEFINED
AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATER REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT, MAINTAINING A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AND MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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