SPAC: OWEN - Post-tropical

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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:15 am

The new Technical Bulletin mentions the possibility of RI:

REMARKS:
Position of 04U is good, based on Mornington Island radar. 04U has been tracking
westwards across Cape York Peninsula at 10 knots and is now in the southeastern
Gulf of Carpentaria. 04U is deep, vertical and well structured with tight spiral
bands wrapping inwards on radar. Maximum winds estimated at 30 knots based on a
curved band of 0.5 giving a DT of 2.5. NESDIS ADT is 2.8 at 0530Z. 04U is
located SE of a TUTT providing weak upper level divergence. Wind shear based on
CIMSS 06Z is SE 10-15 knots.

There is strong consensus across all models that 04U will continue moving
westwards during Tuesday due to a mid level ridge over central Australia,
however there is some spread in speed with EC, GFS and JMA the fastest and
reaching the SW Gulf by Tuesday night, and ACCESS the slowest and remaining in
the SE Gulf. Models then slow 04U during Wednesday, then turn 04U back to the
east during Thursday. Broadly, this is due to an amplifying middle level trough
and cut off low sweeping across SE Australia, but the synoptic pattern is
similar across all models making it difficult to pick the subtle differences
influencing the spread of turning points for 04U. Once captured by the westerly
steering, all models take 04U over the SE Gulf, with landfall most likely during
Friday [although an earlier crossing along the southern Gulf [NT or Qld side is
also possible with a more southerly track].

The environment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is favourable to very favourable
over coming days. SSTs are 30-31C. Dry air to the west is forecast to erode
during Tuesday, leaving a deep moist environment. Due to the upper low/TUTT on
Tuesday, potentially dual outflow channels may develop, until the upper systems
weakens by Wednesday. From Wednesday, the upper ridge reorganised north of the
system cutting off the equatorward outflow but increasing the poleward outflow.
Wind shear should remain low until increasing on Thursday and Friday as the
upper level westerlies increase.

Forecast intensity is based on developing at the standard rate or slightly
faster for the next 24 hours. RI is a possibility. From then until landfall the
development rate decreases as increasing westerly shear increases. Peak
intensity is set at 70 knots.

In the longer term, 04U is expected to move off the Queensland coast again
during the weekend or early next week. Both EC and GFS indicate a strong system
with gales. Embedded deep within the mid-lat westerlies, ETT may be a
possibility. However GFS cyclone phase prognostic suggests it retains its warm
core. Either way, will need to factor in the possibility of gales along the
central Qld coast this weekend or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone Owen

#42 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:58 am

Details of Tropical Cyclone Owen at 6:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 139.0 degrees East , 175 kilometres north of Mornington Island and 310 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: west northwest at 10 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Owen is located north northwest of Mornington Island. It is expected to continue moving steadily westwards during the rest of this evening. During Wednesday or Thursday, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down and then move to the east towards the Queensland coast. It may reach category 3 intensity by Thursday if conditions remain favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Friday is most likely.
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:07 am

Looks like the cyan ring is still there:

Image

The forecast peak intensity has been slightly increased to 75 kt:

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 11/1800: 14.8S 138.5E: 020 [040]: 045 [085]: 990
+12: 12/0000: 14.8S 138.2E: 035 [065]: 050 [095]: 986
+18: 12/0600: 14.9S 137.9E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 983
+24: 12/1200: 15.0S 137.6E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 979
+36: 13/0000: 15.4S 137.8E: 080 [145]: 070 [130]: 971
+48: 13/1200: 15.5S 138.9E: 100 [180]: 075 [140]: 972
+60: 14/0000: 15.6S 140.5E: 120 [220]: 075 [140]: 973
+72: 14/1200: 16.2S 142.7E: 135 [255]: 050 [095]: 989
+96: 15/1200: 19.5S 147.6E: 180 [335]: 040 [075]: 1004
+120: 16/1200: 22.9S 151.6E: 270 [500]: 045 [085]: 992
REMARKS:
04U was located using Mornington Island radar with reasonably high confidence.
Recent motion has been slowly west.

04U is deep, vertical and well structured with tight spiral bands wrapping
inwards on radar. Dvorak analysis is difficult with the cloud signature being
'embedded centre'. MET and PAT still give 3.0, with FT/CI set to 3.0. NESDISS
ADT at 1200UTC was 3.1. Maximum winds estimated to be 40 knots based on Dvorak
and radar imagery.

Wind shear based on CIMSS 06Z is NE 10-15 knots.

There is strong consensus across all models that 04U will continue moving
westwards during Tuesday due to a mid level ridge over central Australia,
however there is some spread in speed. Models then slow 04U during Wednesday,
then turn 04U back to the east during Thursday. Broadly, this is due to an
amplifying middle level trough and cut off low sweeping across SE Australia, but
the synoptic pattern is similar across all models making it difficult to pick
the subtle differences influencing the spread of turning points for 04U. Once
captured by the westerly steering, all models take 04U over the SE Gulf, with
landfall most likely during Friday [although an earlier crossing along the
southern Gulf [NT or Qld side is also possible with a more southerly track].

The environment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is favourable over the next couple
days. SSTs are 30-31C. The system sits in a pouch of moist air surrounded by
drier air on all sides. If shear remains low, then the dry air shouldn't be an
inhibiting factor. Signs of outflow channels to the southeast and west are
evident in upper wind analysis. From Wednesday, the upper ridge reorganises
north of the system cutting off the equatorward outflow but increasing the
poleward outflow. Wind shear should remain low until increasing on Thursday and
Friday as the upper level westerlies increase.

Forecast intensity is based on developing at the standard rate for the next 24
hour to 48 hours with it reaching the middle of the category 3 range [75 knots]
and then stalling in development with the increasing shear. With it being a
small system in a favourable environment with signs of outflow, rapid
intensification is a possiblilty.

In the longer term, 04U is expected to move off the Queensland coast again
during the weekend or early next week. Both EC and GFS indicate a strong system
with gales. Embedded deep within the mid-lat westerlies, ETT may be a
possibility. However GFS cyclone phase prognostic suggests it retains its warm
core. Either way, will need to factor in the possibility of gales and
significant rainfall along the central Qld coast this weekend or early next
week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/2000 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:24 pm

Not very well organised @ the upper-level. That is expected to sort itself out when the tc loops back to ese thinks GFS.
Image
250mb
https://imgur.com/I2dR7RX
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:50 pm

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 11:25 am ACST [11:55 am AEST] on Wednesday 12 December 2018


Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Owen now at Category 2 intensity is forecast to strengthen
further over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cape Shield in the Northern Territory, to Burketown in
Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island.

Watch zone: Burketown to Pompuraaw in Queensland including Pormpuraaw,
Kowanyama and Karumba.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Owen at 9:30 am ACST [10:00 am AEST]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 14.8 degrees South 137.6 degrees East,
estimated to be 140 kilometres southeast of Groote Eylandt and 200 kilometres
northeast of Borroloola.
Movement: west at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Owen is located over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and is
expected to be slow moving during Wednesday. On Thursday Owen is then forecast
to change course to move eastwards and back towards the Queensland coast. It
may reach category 3 intensity by Thursday morning if conditions remain
favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast
between Burketown to Pormpuraw during Friday afternoon is most likely.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may develop between Cape Shield
and the NT/Qld Border, including Groote Eylandt on Wednesday. On Thursday,
GALES may extend to Burketown, including Mornington Island, and then extend
further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Pormpuraw on
Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal
parts near Borroloola and to the NT/Qld Border early Thursday if the system
takes a more southerly track.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about
the islands and coastal areas of the western and southern Gulf of Carpentaria
on Wednesday and Thursday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, tides will be higher than normal between
Cape Shield and Gilbert River Mouth. Large waves may produce minor flooding of
low-lying coastal areas between Cape Shield and Gilbert River Mouth.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Port McArthur to QLD/NT Border,
and Groote Eylandt, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Cape Shield to QLD/NT Border, and Groote Eylandt
-Be ready for a cyclone and wet/windy conditions;
-Make final preperations to home shelter and take shelter as gales arrive;
-Do not move to public shelters until advised by local authorities.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at
www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood
this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the Queensland/NT border and Burketown should take precautions
and listen to the next advice at 2:30 pm EST.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm ACST Wednesday 12 December [2:30 pm
AEST Wednesday 12 December].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#46 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:05 pm

00z GFS is still bombing this system.

Image
https://imgur.com/SYb3RRE
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#47 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:34 am

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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#48 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:11 am

The 2.5 minute Himawari mesoscale floater is now capturing Owen:

Image
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#49 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:04 am

Darwin and neighboring towns in the NT are now being hammered by stupidly strong squall line with insane cloud tops.

See : 128km Radar Loop for Darwin/Berrimah, 00:00 12/12/2018 to 15:00 12/12/2018 UTC
Image


Latest MW is showing a developing eye.

Image
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#50 Postby TorSkk » Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:49 pm

Rapidly improving sat presentation

Image
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#51 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:52 pm

Quite a change in just 3 hours:

Image
Source :https://weather.us


It also looks like Owen actually has made landfall in a very remote area of the NT:

Image
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#52 Postby vortextracker » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:14 pm

looking pin-eyeish on ir satpic above. 90-95kt?
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Tropical Cyclone

#53 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:34 pm

Now upgraded to Severe (Category 3) status and forecast to make landfall as a Cat 4:

Image

Current Himawari floater visible loop:

Image
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#54 Postby vortextracker » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:20 pm

Too bad its in a remote area, no way to get core wind speed data atm.
Those croc's up there will be travelling far inland in the rising creeks.
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#55 Postby vortextracker » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:39 am

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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#56 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:36 pm

Image

The core is looking good again
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#57 Postby vortextracker » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:30 am

Yeah it's looking better now. I do hope the bom dont upgrade
this to a aussie cat4 without a fully formed cleared out eyewall.


Image
https://imgur.com/8UDmush
radar overlayed.


track
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/?ref=ftr
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#58 Postby vortextracker » Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:06 am

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0639 UTC 14/12/2018
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 138.9E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: east [081 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 14/1200: 15.2S 140.6E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 963
+12: 14/1800: 15.4S 141.3E: 065 [120]: 090 [165]: 955
+18: 15/0000: 15.9S 142.3E: 070 [130]: 060 [105]: 980
+24: 15/0600: 16.4S 143.4E: 070 [130]: 040 [070]: 993
+36: 15/1800: 17.4S 145.2E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 16/0600: 18.1S 146.3E: 100 [180]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 16/1800: 18.9S 147.4E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 997
+72: 17/0600: 19.7S 148.6E: 135 [255]: 030 [055]: 998
+96: 18/0600: : : :
+120: 19/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Owen is a small, but intense system tracking in an
eastwards direction across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. Confidence in the
location of the system is rated as good as it is clearly evident on the
Mornington Island radar. There is also good confidence in the wind field
structure surrounding the system based on ASCAT scatterometer data this morning.

Owen has periodically shown signs of a poorly defined or ragged eye on satellite
imagery during today. As a result, most of the Dvorak analysis completed today
has been done using either an embedded centre or eye pattern. The latest Dvorak
analysis used an embedded centre pattern with a DG surround, giving a DT of 4.0.
MET and PAT were both 4.0. FT was based on MET. The CI was maintained at 4.5.

Owen is steadily moving in an eastwards direction under the influence of an
upper low situated over southeastern Australia. There is strong consensus across
all computer models that the system will continue moving in this direction until
it makes landfall about the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Gilbert
River Mouth and Pormpuraaw, tonight or during early Saturday. Given that Owen is
not tracking eastwards as quickly as initially forecast it is becoming more
likely that landfall will occur during Saturday.

The system currently exists in a low shear environment and it is anticipated
that this shear environment should remain in place until landfall. The sea
surface temperatures across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria sit at a conducive
30-31 degrees. Water vapour imagery shows that sufficient moisture surrounds the
system. Given these factors, it is expected that Owen should intensify to a
category 4 system prior to making landfall about the southeast Gulf of
Carpentaria coast.

Over the weekend, Owen is expected to track across the northern interior of
Queensland and it is possible that the system may emerge off the Queensland east
coast during Sunday or Monday. Given there is the potential for the system to
move offshore in what appears to be a marginally conducive environment for
development, Owen is currently rated a moderate [20-50%] chance of reforming
into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea on Sunday or Monday. Even if Owen
doesn't reform into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea, there is going to be
the increased risk of heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging to locally
destructive winds in areas of northern and central Queensland over the coming
days.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

.................................................................................................................


early pass 11.23 am GMT+10 today
Image
https://imgur.com/BQFMc8W


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/ARCHER/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/?C=
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#59 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:00 am

Structure has largely come undone.

Image
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Re: SPAC: OWEN - Post-tropical

#60 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:31 pm

It's worth mentioning that Owen is still lurking around the Australian coast. Very weak though and I don't think it has the model support either. Several of these SPAC storms are known for meandering for a long time. :D
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