SPAC: OWEN - Post-tropical

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SPAC: OWEN - Post-tropical

#1 Postby TorSkk » Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:36 pm

97P INVEST 181127 1800 1.9S 163.3E SHEM 15 1006


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Last edited by TorSkk on Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:45 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:11 am

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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#3 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:52 pm

The latest ECMWF and GFS model guidance continue to massively disagree on the eventual track of this system:

Image

Source: https://weather.us/

Image

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#4 Postby vortextracker » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:04 pm

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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#5 Postby vortextracker » Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:57 am

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 29 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 2 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is currently located over the Solomon Islands. The low is forecast to move in a southwesterly direction while developing further over the next three days. At this stage, it is expected to remain outside our region of responsibility before entering the Eastern Region during Sunday or Monday.

Uncertainty does exist with the tropical low's movement and development into next week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#6 Postby TorSkk » Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:43 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 376
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 290342Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOW A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL 281010Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#7 Postby vortextracker » Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:26 pm

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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#8 Postby TorSkk » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:49 pm

Image
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 154.8E TO 15.0S 150.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 154.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED AT 10.9S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301102Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND SCATTERED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS).
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AND AGREE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE NEAR TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011530Z.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#9 Postby vortextracker » Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:17 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/yAvQR53
satpic suggests this has formed. ts
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#10 Postby TorSkk » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:26 am

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)

B. 01/1130Z

C. 13.3S

D. 154.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 3.5/10 BANDING FOR A DT=2.0. MET=1.5. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/0749Z 11.9S 154.4E SSMIS
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#11 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:30 pm

The first forecast by the BOM:

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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#12 Postby TorSkk » Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:05 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:50 am EST on Sunday 2 December 2018
At 4 am AEST Sunday, a tropical low with central pressure 1000 hPa was located
over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 12.8 south longitude 154.3 east,
which is about 610 km northeast of Willis Island and 1030 km east northeast of
Cairns.

The low is moving south at 9 kilometres per hour and is expected to deepen
further, most likely developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24
hours.

The system will continue drifting south until Monday afternoon or evening, and
is then expected to turn and move slowly west. It is expected to intensify
further during this time. However, this system poses no immediate threat to the
Queensland coast, and should remain well off the coast until it weakens later
in the week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am AEST today.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#13 Postby vortextracker » Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:38 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/eSROHkY

Ukmet thinks this may be threat down stream to the island groups se.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 97P

#14 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:15 pm

This "disturbance" looks like it's developing an eye...

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Re: SPAC: 97P

#15 Postby vortextracker » Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:51 pm

Image
12:50:42 VUT
Sunday, 2 December 2018
https://imgur.com/rOcUslw
snapshot


Image
https://imgur.com/siXc1ER

eps is suggesting another tc will also develop east of this now tropical storm over the week.
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Re: SPAC:Tropical Cyclone Owen

#16 Postby vortextracker » Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:37 am

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:48 pm EST on Sunday 2 December 2018
At 4 pm AEST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Owen, Category 1, with central pressure
998 hPa was located over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 14.1 south
longitude 154.5 east, which is about 545 km east northeast of Willis Is and 990
km east northeast of Cairns.

The tropical low over the northern Coral Sea has recently developed into
Tropical Cyclone Owen. The system has been moving to the south southeast
through today, but has recently slowed to around 8 kilometres per hour. Owen is
expected to deepen further overnight and is likely to reach Category 2 on
Monday.

The system is likely to drift slowly south until Monday afternoon or evening,
and is then expected to turn and move slowly to the west and commence a
weakening trend. This system poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast,
and should remain well off the coast until it weakens later in the week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm AEST today.




IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0127 UTC 02/12/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 154.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [192 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 02/0600: 13.9S 154.0E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1001
+12: 02/1200: 14.1S 154.0E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1001
+18: 02/1800: 14.3S 153.9E: 065 [125]: 040 [075]: 998
+24: 03/0000: 14.5S 153.7E: 080 [145]: 050 [095]: 992
+36: 03/1200: 14.6S 153.6E: 100 [180]: 050 [095]: 992
+48: 04/0000: 14.8S 153.5E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 996
+60: 04/1200: 14.7S 153.3E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 1001
+72: 05/0000: 14.9S 152.8E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 1004
+96: 06/0000: 14.9S 152.2E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 1004
+120: 07/0000: 15.0S 152.0E: 290 [535]: 030 [055]: 1004
REMARKS:
Tropical low 04U has become steadily more organised during the past 24 hours.
Convection has consolidated closer to the centre and curvature has improved. An
ASCAT pass at 23UTC continued to show a slightly elongated low level centre, but
more involved with the deep convection than 12 hours previously, with a swath of
30 knot winds in the southern quadrants. Dvorak analysis using a curved band
pattern yields DT2.5, MET is 2.0, PT is 2.5, FT based on the DT. Intensity is
analysed at 30 knots based on Ascat pass, and consistent with Dvorak analysis.

04U is located in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, with good upper
level outflow on the southern flank. Conditions are expected to be at least
moderately favourable for further development for the next 36 hours, as the
system is steered slowly south by a mid-level ridge to the northeast.

Beyond this time, deep layer wind shear will increase as system approaches
strong upper level westerlies south of latitude 15 degrees south. There is some
uncertainty in the prognosis, but the most likely outcome is that lower level
steering influences will dominate as the system becomes sheared, and the system
will be steered westward as it weakens and becomes a shallower vortex.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Re: SPAC: Owen - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby TorSkk » Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:54 am

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Re: SPAC: Owen - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:03 am

Few days ago ECMWF EPS were bullish on the intensity, now not much when the forecast track changed :lol:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: SPAC: Owen - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby TorSkk » Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:02 am

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Tropical cyclone Owen shows good curvature and rotation in satellite imagery,
but has struggled to maintain a significant amount of deep cold convection
through most of today. Dvorak analysis is based on curved bands averaging 0.6 to
0.7 wrap during the past few hours. DT is 3.0. MET is 2.5, and PT is 3.0. Final
T 3.0. Objective Dvorak assessments are slightly below this at 2.3 to 2.8.
Current SATCON estimate is 43 knots. Intensity is analysed at 40 knots.

Tropical cyclone Owen is located in an environment of low deep layer vertical
wind shear, with good upper level outflow on the southern flank. Conditions are
expected to remain favourable for further development for roughly the next 24
hours, as the system drifts slowly south under the weakening steering influence
of a mid level ridge to the east.

Beyond this time, an amplifying upper level trough will increase deep layer wind
shear over the system and weakening should commence. Weakening could be more
rapid than indicated given the westerly shear and small size of the system.
There is some uncertainty in the prognosis, but the most likely outcome is that
lower level steering influences will dominate as the system becomes sheared, and
the system will be steered westward as it weakens and becomes a shallower
vortex.
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Re: SPAC: Owen - Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby vortextracker » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:07 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Few days ago ECMWF EPS were bullish on the intensity, now not much when the forecast track changed :lol:


I suspect some northeasterly shear 700-500 mb kept Owen in check. That said if the ukmet holds serve the system may get another shot later.
Winston had a weird long looping track with ridge building in out past the date line. :ggreen:


WTPS31 PGTW 030300
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A COMPACT AREA OF CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND AMBIGUITIES
FROM A BULLSEYE 022316Z ASCAT PASS. A 022315Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AND IS CLOSE TO A 022314Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 48 KTS. THE 022316Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 35-39 KT WIND
BARBS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, AND SEVERAL 40-44 KT WIND BARBS;
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY A POINT SOURCE ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC
05P HAS MEANDERED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE
700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, AND
THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET, WHICH
TURNS SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS STILL LARGE
DISAGREEMENT (275 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS
OF THE TURN AMONG MODELS THAT FAVOR THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO.
HWRF, GFS, AND COAMPS-GFS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTWARD JOG
THROUGH TAU 12 THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GALWEM AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO
PREDICT A STRONG RECURVE TOWARDS THE EQUATOR THEN AN EVENTUAL
EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NAVGEM MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH, AND RESULTING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) CAUSING
THE RECURVATURE AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR NAVGEM AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED BETWEEN ECMWF AND THE OTHER
WESTWARD-TRACKING MODEL MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND
040300Z.//
NNNN




12z ukmet
https://ibb.co/8r8Gk9K
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