BOB: PHETHAI - Post-Tropical

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BOB: PHETHAI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby TorSkk » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:11 am

94B INVEST 181207 0600 4.3N 87.4E IO 15 1007

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE MARKED THEREAFTER.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION LAY
OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.


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Last edited by TorSkk on Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:44 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: BOB: Invest 94B

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:32 am

Global models suggest a possible TC threat to Southern India or Sri Lanka from this.
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Re: BOB: Invest 94B

#3 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:43 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 431
NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081547Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA
WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A 081514Z ASCAT METOP-
A PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 15-
20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SPLIT ON WHETHER 94B WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY
DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS
OR REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IT’S
CURRENT LOCATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: BOB: Invest 94B

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:57 am

94B INVEST 181212 1200 5.4N 89.6E IO 25 1004

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 87.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 542
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111552Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS THAT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24HRS, BEING OFFSET BY ADEQUATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 28C TO 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING 94B REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: BOB: Invest 94B

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:09 am

ECMWF is pretty aggressive on this.

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Re: BOB: Well-Marked Low (Invest 94B)

#6 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:19 am

IMD has the center about 200 miles too far west. It's on the east side of the convection, not the west side.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en#
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Re: BOB: Well-Marked Low (Invest 94B)

#7 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:27 am

Now a depression by IMD.
Sub: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal: Pre-cyclone watch for Andhra Pradesh Coast
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards with a speed of
08 kmph during past 03 hours and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 13th December, 2018
over southeast Bay of Bengal near latitude 6.7°N and longitude 88.6°E, about 830 km eastsoutheast
of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1150 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 1330 km
south-southeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a deep
depression during next 12 hours and into a Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 24 hours. It is
very likely to move northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh & adjoining north Tamil Nadu coast
during next 72 hours.
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Re: BOB: PHETHAI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#8 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:03 pm

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Re: BOB: PHETHAI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#9 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:04 pm

170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (PHETHAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST
COAST OF INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURES IN THE 161945Z AMSR AND
162253Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 08B
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 12 SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. INTERACTION
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN ADDITION TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
THE TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 24. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: BOB: PHETHAI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#10 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:05 pm

You can see both Phethal and Kenanga roaring in the Indian Ocean.

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Re: BOB: PHETHAI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#11 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:33 am

Making landfall, or has made landfall over Andhra Pradesh, SW of Visakhapatnam.

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