SIO: KENANGA - Post-Tropical

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TyphoonNara
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Re: SIO: KENANGA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:37 am

Currently seems like LG ring (surr by B) + WMG eye to me. (T 5.0 = 90 knots)
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Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:07 pm

212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUAL DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BUT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 211612Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
CORRECTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR TILT THAT WAS
EVIDENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KTS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST. NAVGEM, GFS, AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SHARPER TURN POLEWARD THAN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE REMAINING NUMERICAL
MODELS (ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM). THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS
TO ALIGN WITH THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM CLUSTER. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL (26C-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF TC 07S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND
222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:07 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:27 pm

Looks like it is dissipating.
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