SIO: KENANGA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
TorSkk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 am

SIO: KENANGA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby TorSkk » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:23 am

91S INVEST 181211 1200 4.7S 90.5E SHEM 20 1007

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2018/12/11 AT 1200 UTC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
South West Indian Ocean basin is in a Near Equatorial Pattern (NET) between 7 and 4S. Convective
activity remains strong in the eastern NET, favored by an active MJO phase and an Equatorial
Rossby wave. By then end of the week, the burst of boreal trade wind flow, coupled with the waves,
is forecast to trigger the arrival of the transequatorial flow over most of the basin.

Suspect area, east of the basin :
Last observations (microwave and Scatsat swath) show that the clockwise circulation near 90E is
still very elongated, with 20kt feeding on both equatorial and polar side.
During the following days, the deepening and motion of the twin circulation in the northern
hemisphere, will increase the the convergence and help in establishing the monsoon flow, on the
northern side.
From Thursday, the low is expected to meet more favorable conditions under the upper ridge, while
moving south. The system should be protected from the current easterly vertical wind shear, with a
good upper divergence.
Among the numerical guidance, main models suggest a cyclogenesis in this area by the end of the
week-end. 00Z IFS run, show one the strongest deepening, with tropical storm status reached before
Friday morning. But this run initial state do not depict well the current organization. GFS, is slower
in its last scenarios due to a broader initial structure, apparently more realistic. Many EPS members
seem in agreement with the slower intenisfication.

For the next 5 days, the risk of formation of a tropical storm becomes low on Thursday, and
moderate from Friday (near 50% from Saturday) over the Eastern part of the basin.


Image
Last edited by TorSkk on Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:43 am, edited 8 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
TorSkk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 am

Re: SIO: Invest 91S

#2 Postby TorSkk » Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:35 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 92.5E TO 11.5S 88.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 91.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 92.8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 91.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 428 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 131920Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142100Z.//
0 likes   

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: SIO: Invest 91S

#3 Postby vortextracker » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:10 pm

EC thinks two organised systems will roam the swio by 240hrs.

Image
https://imgur.com/9Qlt7Yk
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: SIO: Invest 91S

#4 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:26 pm

TCFA by JTWC.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: SIO: Invest 91S

#5 Postby vortextracker » Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:58 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TorSkk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 am

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby TorSkk » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:06 am

The system has been named Kenanga by TCWC Jakarta
0 likes   

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#7 Postby vortextracker » Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:46 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/nkkKGX9
Looking pretty good this system atm for further intensification.
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#8 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:54 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#9 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:56 pm

170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 953 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT BUT
MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 162259Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.0-T3.7. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN
MORE WESTWARD AS SECONDARY BUILDING STR ASSUMES STEERING. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING
VWS AND BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Severe Tropical Storm

#10 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:22 am

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR KENANGA (06S) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 12180109
SATCON: MSLP = 980 hPa MSW = 75 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 77.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 71 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 981 hPa 72 knots Scene: CDO Date: DEC180300
CIMSS AMSU: 976 hPa 81 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 12172247
ATMS: 975.5 hPa 78.9 knots Date: 12171959
SSMIS: 979.0 hPa 85.0 knots Date: 12180109
CIRA ATMS: 977 hPa 70 knots Date: 12172000



Image
https://imgur.com/HVobyin looks hurricane strength.


Image
https://imgur.com/XXw7h8x
Structure looks good also on rain micro.
Last edited by vortextracker on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7266
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Severe Tropical Storm

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:38 am

I'll guess around 75 knots at the moment but as the eye warms and the -70 convection wraps I could see this jump up quite fast.
1 likes   

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Severe Tropical Storm

#12 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:01 am

May be on the way to going annular with the moderate sst and 20kt shear combo.
Image
https://imgur.com/CYrSWIF
eye looks a bit ragged on the image atm
Last edited by vortextracker on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:31 am

180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 83.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC AS IT
DEVELOPED AN OCCLUDED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
OCCLUDED EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD
AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAUS 12-24 TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER
DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE
REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 48 TO A SPAN OF OVER 300 NM BY TAU 120. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP
TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:33 am

Current intensity estimates align well with Satcon.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
WAcyclone
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 349
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:10 am

Nice large eye:

Image

Source: https://weather.us/
1 likes   

User avatar
TorSkk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 am

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby TorSkk » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:18 am

Image


A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA)

B. 18/1430Z

C. 15.10S

D. 83.63E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT WITH LARGE EYE >45NM) OF
5.0. MET/PT 5.0. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 55NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:41 pm

90 kt is too low I'd wager.

Image
2 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:08 pm

Likely 125-130 kts now. Probably peaking. Even 90 kts 10-min wind from La Reunion is way low.
1 likes   

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:46 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/6lGofkR

Annular structure @ the last few frames
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: SIO: KENANGA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:34 am

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests