SIO: CILIDA - Post-Tropical

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SIO: CILIDA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby TorSkk » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:40 pm

92S INVEST 181214 1200 8.0S 56.7E SHEM 15 1010

Convective activity is strengthening west of Diego-Garcia. Currently, there is no closed circulation
in the trough. Conditions are not conducive for now, with strong easterly vertical wind shear.
Early next week, monsoon flow is forecast to become much more meridian, enhancing the lower
convergence on the equatorial side. The resulting low pressure area, located between Agalega and
Diego-Garcia would be then situated in a conducive environment under the upper ridge. Most
deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a cyclogenesis risk within this area.

For the next 5 days, the risk of formation of a tropical storm between Diego-Garcia and
Agalega is becoming low from Wednesday.
Last edited by TorSkk on Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:42 am, edited 9 times in total.
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#2 Postby vortextracker » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:55 pm

Maybe a problem for Mauritius/Reuion island group down stream.
Image
https://imgur.com/8yD3mss


Image
https://imgur.com/3183XY8
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#3 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:56 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#4 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:57 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 57.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 59.2E, APPROXIMATELY 800
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161414Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW AN ELONGATED LLC DIRECTLY BELOW FLARING CONVECTION WITH SOME
MIDLEVEL ROTATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE,
WITH LOW (5-15 KNOT) VWS AND ADEQUATE UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO BROAD
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30 C) FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH IO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD TRACK
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST BEFORE A POSSIBLE TURN
SOUTH AROUND TAU 60. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH 35 KNOTS IN THE LATER TAUS AFTER THE TURN SOUTH,
WITH NAVGEM THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER AND PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO THE TURN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#5 Postby vortextracker » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:12 am

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Re: SIO: 05S - Tropical Disturbance (92S)

#6 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:23 am

The first forecast track has been issued by Meteo France:

Image

http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/05-20182019
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Re: SIO: 05S - Tropical Disturbance (92S)

#7 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:37 am

Image
https://imgur.com/WZmHG8S
worth watching the ens trends.
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Re: SIO: 05S - Tropical Disturbance (92S)

#8 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:29 am

Upgraded to Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 61.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 61.7E, APPROXIMATELY 664
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 171127Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE,
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS A MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION
WITH STRONGER WINDS NOW WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MAINTAINING A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (35 KNOTS) AROUND THE
48 HOUR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: 05S - Tropical Disturbance (92S)

#9 Postby TorSkk » Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:55 pm

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20182019

1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5

2.A POSITION 2018/12/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 61.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/19 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 12.1 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HEURES, THE CONVECTION IS REINFORCED CLOSE TO THE
DISTURBANCE CENTER AND PRESENTS A NET IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION. THE 1717UTC ASCAT SWATH DOES NOT ALLOW A GOOD WIND
ESTIMATE TO BE MADE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS PROVIDES AN ESTIMATE IN THE
ORDER OF 25KT.

THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST EVOLVED LITTLE WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS SEEN TO INCREASE, WITH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS. OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. LATER IN THE WEEK A DEEP UPPER TO
MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS,
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AT DAY 3 BEFORE
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AT DAY 4 AND DAY 5. THE
PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE VELOCITY OF
DISPLACEMENT DURING ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER A MODERATE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT,
BUT AS THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN LATITUDES, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN FAVORABLE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UP
TO DAY 3 TO DAY 4. IN THE SHORT TERM, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ENVISAGED
LEADING THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY REACH THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM TOMORROW DURING THE DAY AND INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT
3 DAYS. DURING DAY 4, INCREASING WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH
A DRYER MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (MAINLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE)
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND MAY POSE A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS
LATER THIS WEEK. INHABITANTS OF THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
.
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Re: SIO: 05S - Tropical Disturbance (92S)

#10 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:06 pm

This is a very impressive 37GHz structure:

Image
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Re: SIO: 05S - Tropical Disturbance (92S)

#11 Postby TorSkk » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:52 pm

TCFA issued

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/182051Z DEC 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 182100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S 61.2E TO 14.8S 57.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 61.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3S 61.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 698
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181114Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW.
AS 92S TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, VWS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SYSTEM'S GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS A DEFINED SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT POSITION
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT 92S WILL STAY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR 12-24 HOURS,
THEN TRACK SOUTHWARD, WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITHOUT HESITATION. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (35 KNOTS) AT ABOUT THE 24-48
HOUR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192100Z.//
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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Severe Tropical Storm

#13 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:20 am

This is not a 60kt TS.
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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby TorSkk » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:07 am

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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:36 pm

Forecasted to reach 130 knots.

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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:36 pm

202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 58.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S CONTINUES TO UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNDER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS).
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 10NM
EYE SURROUNDED BY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND A 201626Z GPMI 89GHZ IMAGE PINHOLE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES IN AGREEMENT OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AXIS,
TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER
TAU 36. RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE VWS
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby TorSkk » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:24 am

Image

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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby TorSkk » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:41 am

DT 7.0
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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby TorSkk » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:42 am

DT 7.0
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Re: SIO: CILIDA - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby TorSkk » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:52 am

07S CILIDA 181221 1200 15.1S 57.7E SHEM 135 922, from 110 at 6Z
Forecasted to become a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone, first one since Fantala
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