WPAC: 35W - Post Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)

#21 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:43 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 242117
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 35W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP352018
717 AM ChST Tue Dec 25 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTYFIVE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM CHST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...7.5N 135.5E

About 70 miles southeast of Kayangel
About 75 miles east of Koror
About 150 miles west-southwest of Ngulu
About 225 miles southwest of Yap
About 750 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CHST...2000 UTC...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression 35W was located near Latitude 7.5 degrees North and
Longitude 135.5 degrees East. 35W is moving west-northwest at
7 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest
with a slight increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. 35W is forecast to maintain
this intensity through Wednesday morning.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Ziobro
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Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)

#22 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:30 pm

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Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)

#23 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:30 pm

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Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)

#24 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:45 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 242147Z SSMIS
91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT/SCATSAT DATA
SHOWING 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE (10 TO 20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE) AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR (PTRO) INDICATE ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOT GUSTS,
HOWEVER, THE 24/12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS.

UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY BROAD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
35W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, MODERATE VWS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, WHICH WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY,
VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD
OF 70NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL DECREASE FURTHER, HOWEVER, INTERACTION
WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. AS TD 35W EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR. TD 35W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 120 DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:48 am

JMA 06Z
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 08N 135E WNW SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:23 am

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
AN EXPOSED, WEAK, AND RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
POORLY-ORGANIZED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LLC. FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN FLANKS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE
SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE
PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE STR BUILDS, TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD THE VISAYAN
ISLANDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER LEYTE JUST BEFORE TAU 72. DESPITE THE
GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION OF ONLY UP TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE INTENSITY BACK TO 30
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL STAY ON THE SAME TRACK UNDER THE STR
BUT WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS AND BARELY MAINTAIN TD
INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS)
AND REGAIN ONLY MINIMAL TS STRENGTH, EVEN AFTER IT CLEARS LANDMASS
AND VWS DECREASES, DUE TO EXPOSURE TO A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE
EVENT IN THE SCS. WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE NORTHWARD OUTLIER,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS
LAID JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#27 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:49 am

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 25 December 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 25 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°55' (8.9°)
E134°40' (134.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30' (10.5°)
E130°25' (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#28 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:39 am

Now JTWC is only expecting it to strengthen to 40 kt.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#29 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:40 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
95 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
A PARTLY-EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAIN
BULK OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC.
FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
FLANKS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BY EXTRAPOLATING THE
FORMATIVE BANDS TOWARD THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE SUSTAINED
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25
KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE PERENNIALLY
FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:43 pm

JMA:

TD
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 25 December 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 25 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°10' (9.2°)
E133°30' (133.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°35' (10.6°)
E129°55' (129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)


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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:37 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
165 NM NORTH OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN OBSCURED
AND WEAK LLCC. MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE ASSESSED CENTER, ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS, WITH A SMALL POCKET OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 251622Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWING SOME
FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTH, GIVING AN
INDICATION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A 251240Z ASCAT-B PASS,
WHICH SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND
SATCON IS 40 KNOTS, BUT BOTH ARE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH AS THEY ARE
FIXING THE CENTER TO THE NORTH IN THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND SO ARE
DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS, WHILE TWO SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ROUGHLY THREE DEGREES TO THE NORTHWEST INDICATE 20-24
KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE FAVORABLE AT
29-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 35W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHERN
PHILIPPINE SEA. BEYOND TAU 48, THE TRACK FLATTENS TO MORE WESTWARD,
AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS AND BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST. TD 35W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR ISLAND AS A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO TAU 60 AND THEN TRANSIT INTO THE SIBUYAN SEA
BY TAU 72. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, WITH GENERALLY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY
RELATIVELY HIGH VWS AND KEEPING A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE
THE INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, TRENDING TOWARDS THE NORTH OF ALL OTHER MODELS.
THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK,
REEMERGING OVER WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY ABOUT TAU 84.
ONCE FULLY INTO THE SCS BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY REINTENSIFY
UNDER INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS, BEING
OFFSET BY EXPOSURE TO RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE NORTHWARD OUTLIER,
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEFINING A MIDDLE TRACK, AND MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES
NEAR THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK, AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:52 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:45 pm

Multiple LLC pinwheeling around the assessed storm center.


WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
171 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH MULTIPLE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PIN WHEELING AROUND THE ASSESSED STORM CENTER,
WHICH IS OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
FLARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, IN AN ELONGATED MASS, GENERALLY
ORIENTED WEST-EAST, ALONG THE SHEAR VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE OVERALL LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BANDS, EXTRAPOLATING THOSE THAT ARE VISIBLE INTO A MAJOR
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND IGNORING THE VISIBLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS AS
SECONDARY SPINNERS AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TRUE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 252116Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AS WELL AS AN AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS). TD 35W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING JUST NORTH OF WEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE TURNING MORE DIRECTLY WESTWARD BY TAU 48
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE
SEA AS IT BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST. TD 35W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR ISLAND AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM
AROUND TAU 54 AND THEN TRANSIT INTO THE SIBUYAN SEA, EMERGING OVER
WATER ON THE WEST SIDE OF PANAY BY TAU 72. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STEADY AT 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS THE STRONG VWS
REMAINS IN PLACE, OFFSETTING THE MODERATELY STRONG OUTFLOW. AFTER
THIS POINT AND THROUGH LANDFALL, TD 35W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE DIVERGENT AND
VWS DECREASES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 KNOTS JUST PRIOR
TO LANDFALL, THEREAFTER WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, EMERGING IN THE NORTHERN
SULU SEA AT 30 KNOTS. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, AND
EGRR THE SOUTHERN, WITH A 150 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK, MOVING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY ABOUT TAU 84. ONCE FULLY INTO THE
SCS BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 35
KNOTS, BUT THEN MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM OUTLINING THE
NORTHWARD OUTLIER WHILE THE EGRR AND JGSM OUTLINE THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF ENVELOPE, 270 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE LIES
IN A RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ALONG
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY
HOW THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD SURGE, AS WELL AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#34 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:14 am

For an RSMC, we are being left in the dark. No reasoning or discussion. :lol:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 10.3N 132.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NW 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#35 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:14 am

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
728 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED, WEAK, BROAD, RAGGED, AND ILL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDS CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN FLANKS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE
FORMATIVE BANDS AND MULTIPLE SPINNERS SURROUNDING THE LLC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25
KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE AT
28-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE STR BUILDS, TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY ON A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD THE
VISAYAN ISLANDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN SAMAR JUST BEFORE TAU
48 THEN DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND, BY TAU 72, WILL BE IN THE
SULU SEA JUST NORTHEAST OF PALAWAN ISLAND. DESPITE THE GOOD OUTFLOW
AND WARM SSTS, MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION OF ONLY UP TO 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD,
THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 30
KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR BUILDS, TD 35W WILL TRACK MORE
WESTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BEFORE TURNING MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL REGAIN ONLY MINIMAL
TS STRENGTH, EVEN AFTER IT CLEARS LANDMASS AND VWS DECREASES, DUE TO
EXPOSURE TO A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS. WITH
NAVGEM AS THE SOLE NORTHWARD OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG
TRACK SPEEDS DUE TO THE PROLONGED FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND
ITS ANTICIPATED TRACK ACROSS RUGGED ISLAND-TERRAIN. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS
LAID JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#36 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:10 am

Big blowup of convection

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#37 Postby NotoSans » Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:57 pm

euro6208 wrote:For an RSMC, we are being left in the dark. No reasoning or discussion. :lol:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 10.3N 132.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NW 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.


Prognostic reasoning is published every six hours when JMA initiated advisories on a tropical system. You can access the relevant information here: https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/Alph ... l_cyclone/.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#38 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:21 pm

Check out the latest visible imagery. Center is exposed well SE of any convection. May be multiple small vortices rotating around. Convection is dropping off now, allowing the low-level clouds to be clearly seen. This may never make it beyond a TD.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#39 Postby vortextracker » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:43 am

Image
https://imgur.com/v7WcLrL

Image
https://imgur.com/FzatP08

No doubts it's likely to be a flood risk for those in its path.
Image
https://imgur.com/pfa0GcY
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#40 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:47 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 12 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
579 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
270600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. TD 35W HAS BEEN RELOCATED
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MSI.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD
35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD
35W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY, REACHING 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36. A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
STR WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL
BUILD AND TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 60 WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM WHICH FAVORS
A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35 WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF AN STR LOCATED OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO
REACH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK WITH AFUM
COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TD 35W
BASED ON LLCC EVIDENT IN MSI.//
NNNN
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