WPAC: 35W - Post Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#41 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:20 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#42 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:21 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#43 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:53 pm

Probably not going to strengthen very much with that easterly shear and the broadness of the low level circulation.

Probably could be a low end tropical storm by landfall...We'll see.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#44 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:45 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, ILL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE POORLY-DEFINED NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TD
35W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. TD
35W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS
AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING EEMI, JGSI, AVNI AND AEMI) SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, HOWEVER, EGRI AND ECMI NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 AS
THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. NVGI AND AFUI REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK IN THE EARLY TAUS. DUE TO THE 270NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DISSIPATION PLUS POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
A WEAK LOW PRESSURES AREA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#45 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:02 pm

Strengthened to 30 knots.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#46 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:03 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
472 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-EXPANDING CENTRAL COLD COVER
(CCC) FEATURE, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). FORTUNATELY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CCC FEATURE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS POOR DUE TO THE
POORLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND
LACK OF RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A 280034Z ASCAT
IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A BROAD CENTER WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT (WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES UNDER THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS ESPECIALLY WITH THE CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A RJTD DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND THE ASCAT DATA. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 35W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. TD 35W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO PERSISTENT
MODERATE VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING EEMI, JGSI, AVNI AND AEMI) SUPPORTS THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, EGRI AND ECMI NOW SUGGEST DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. ANALYSIS OF
ECMWF SLP FIELDS ACTUALLY SHOWS A BROAD, WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
EMERGING OVER THE SULU SEA BY TAU 48 WITH A GRADUALLY RE-
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TRACKING INLINE WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE,
FURTHER BOLSTERING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NVGI AND AFUI REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
(UNLIKELY) TRACK IN THE EARLY TAUS. DUE TO THE 200NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DISSIPATION PLUS POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION (INVEST 97W) IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#47 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:39 pm

A 280034Z ASCAT
IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A BROAD CENTER WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT (WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES UNDER THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT).
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#48 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:48 am

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
461 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280034Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED IN A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTATION. A 280600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH SMALLER CIRCULATIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE CENTROID OF THE CIRCULATIONS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. TD 35W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM WHICH IS INDICATING A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT AND INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 35W WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#49 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:54 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#50 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:22 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER, A 281835Z SSMI 85GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A 281212Z ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS A DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE
WINDS. DESPITE THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE, PROXIMITY TO
LAND IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TD 35W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. TD 35W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. AFTER TAU 48, TD 35W WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGI, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 60NM AT TAU 72. THE
28/12Z RUN OF ECMWF INITIALIZES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AT TAU 0
AND FURTHER WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES,
THEREFORE, THERE IS NO VORTEX TRACKER (ECMI) CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TURN WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DESPITE
EARLY PROBLEMS INITIALIZING AND TRACKING THE VORTEX, ECMWF SLP
FIELDS INDICATE TD 35W WILL REINTENSIFY AND TURN WESTWARD AS
INDICATED IN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 260NM AT TAU
120, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY)
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#51 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:43 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#52 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:35 am

Since 98C no invest intensified to a TS just before landfall. What do you call that? Philippine sea effect fail
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#53 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:52 am

Hayabusa wrote:Since 98C no invest intensified to a TS just before landfall. What do you call that? Philippine sea effect fail


I blame the atmosphere more than the ocean itself though. Unfavorable continental air mass kicked in early this year, unlike in 2016 when a Cat5 managed to develop the same time of the year. Although looking at this storm now, it's got the best appearance it ever had throughout its lifespan.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#54 Postby TyphoonNara » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:15 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Since 98C no invest intensified to a TS just before landfall. What do you call that? Philippine sea effect fail


I blame the atmosphere more than the ocean itself though. Unfavorable continental air mass kicked in early this year, unlike in 2016 when a Cat5 managed to develop the same time of the year. Although looking at this storm now, it's got the best appearance it ever had throughout its lifespan.


Yeah, for some reason the atmospheric environment has been very hostile albeit the good oceanic conditions since late November. Quite a number of invests have since failed to develop. It seems we have an exceptionally quite December this year.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#55 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:54 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Since 98C no invest intensified to a TS just before landfall. What do you call that? Philippine sea effect fail


I blame the atmosphere more than the ocean itself though. Unfavorable continental air mass kicked in early this year, unlike in 2016 when a Cat5 managed to develop the same time of the year. Although looking at this storm now, it's got the best appearance it ever had throughout its lifespan.


TyphoonNara wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Since 98C no invest intensified to a TS just before landfall. What do you call that? Philippine sea effect fail


I blame the atmosphere more than the ocean itself though. Unfavorable continental air mass kicked in early this year, unlike in 2016 when a Cat5 managed to develop the same time of the year. Although looking at this storm now, it's got the best appearance it ever had throughout its lifespan.


Yeah, for some reason the atmospheric environment has been very hostile albeit the good oceanic conditions since late November. Quite a number of invests have since failed to develop. It seems we have an exceptionally quite December this year.


Philippine sea effect is not so special after all if it can't even overcome these unfavorable environmental conditions, just like any tropical waters on Earth. :D
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 35W

#56 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:57 am

Looks like its LLC dissipated last evening. Models are developing a second weak low west of Borneo. You can see it in the visible loop. Looks like JMA is trying to jump 35W to west of Borneo very quickly, as their position is over 200 miles SW of JTWC's. It's a mess.
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Re: WPAC: Depression 35W - Post Tropical

#57 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:46 pm

JMA has declared it dissipated. It dissipated about 12 hours ago. What the models had been developing in the southern South China sea was not 35W, but another broad low that is currently located west of northern Borneo near 7.2N / 113E. You could really see it spinning on the visible satellite loop last evening. It'll be fighting plenty of shear, though, as it tracks west toward the Gulf of Thailand.
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Re: WPAC: 35W - Post Tropical

#58 Postby vortextracker » Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:47 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/mxpgFHp
still looked a closed with 30kt gales.
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Re: WPAC: Depression 35W - Post Tropical

#59 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:11 am

wxman57 wrote:JMA has declared it dissipated. It dissipated about 12 hours ago. What the models had been developing in the southern South China sea was not 35W, but another broad low that is currently located west of northern Borneo near 7.2N / 113E. You could really see it spinning on the visible satellite loop last evening. It'll be fighting plenty of shear, though, as it tracks west toward the Gulf of Thailand.

Invest 97W
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Re: WPAC: 35W - Post Tropical

#60 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:43 am

vortextracker wrote:[url]Image[/url]
https://imgur.com/mxpgFHp
still looked a closed with 30kt gales.

Apparently, that's the Metop-A data. What Metop-B depicted seems more realistic.

Metop-B (25km):
Image

Also, if what we're seeing on those 25km images is 35W, isn't it located way too north? The 50km images appear to show where the system is actually located.

Metop-A (50km):
Image

Metop-B (50km):
Image
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