SPAC: 03F - Dissipated

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TorSkk
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SPAC: 03F - Dissipated

#1 Postby TorSkk » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:48 am

94P INVEST 181227 1200 8.8S 161.3E SHEM 15 1010
Last edited by TorSkk on Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:47 am, edited 4 times in total.
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TyphoonNara
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 94P

#2 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:41 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10S
164E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281820Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED, WITH FORMATIVE UPPER LEVEL
BANDING. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 TO 60 HOURS AND
TRACKING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 94P

#3 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:42 pm

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 94P

#4 Postby TorSkk » Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:57 am

Tropical Disturbance TD03F was analysed near 12.2S 163.0E. It is expected to move in a
southeast direction. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the
next three days is high.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (was Invest 94P)

#5 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:27 pm

TCFA

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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (was Invest 94P)

#6 Postby TorSkk » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:05 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 301411 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.3E
AT 301200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD03F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (94P)

#7 Postby TorSkk » Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:57 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 178.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010305Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING SPARSER AND
MORE INCONSISTENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-
35 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND IS UNLIKELY
TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (94P)

#8 Postby TorSkk » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:46 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.7S 175.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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