CPAC: INVEST 90C

[Nancy Smar]

90C INVEST 190815 0000 9.5N 169.3W CPAC 25 0

[Nancy Smar]

CP, 90, 2019081406, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1665W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 90, 2019081412, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1675W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 90, 2019081418, , BEST, 0, 93N, 1685W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 90, 2019081500, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1693W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[1900hurricane]

Down SW of Hawaii. This is the disturbance guidance is picking up after it crosses into the WPac.

[1900hurricane]

And here's a visible loop of the new invest.

[1900hurricane]

Also, here's the first SHIPS output. Looks like it crosses into the WPac at tau 60. Could possibly be a tropical storm by that point.

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP902019 08/15/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 38 49 57 62 66 69 67 68 68
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 38 49 57 62 66 69 67 68 68
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 56 64 71 77 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 10 14 14 15 13 11 6 6 4 11 14 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 0 -2 -2 1 -3 -2 0 0 4
SHEAR DIR 93 67 55 44 52 75 78 95 60 61 15 7 15
SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.3 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 159 158 158 160 162 164 164 159 159 160
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 66 68 63 60 61 62 59 59 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 9 8 9 7 6 6 6 4 4 5
850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 69 63 57 55 48 25 18 0 -37 -48 -69
200 MB DIV 170 153 107 63 23 12 10 18 1 23 3 -4 -38
700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -11 -9 -3 3 1 2 4 2 2 0
LAND (KM) 1718 1769 1824 1881 1925 2003 2154 4150 3952 3798 3573 3357 3159
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.8 10.2 11.5 13.0 14.4 15.7 16.9 17.9 18.5 19.0
LONG(DEG W) 169.3 170.2 171.0 172.0 173.0 175.1 177.8 180.8 183.9 186.7 189.3 191.4 193.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 14 16 17 16 13 12 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 64 64 64 60 42 23 40 55 47 52 41 53 72

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 37. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -10. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 24. 32. 37. 41. 44. 42. 43. 43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 169.3

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 5.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.54 3.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 39.4% 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 22.5% 22.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.2% 45.3% 29.1% 19.1% 6.3% 8.8% 7.3% 50.6%
Bayesian: 0.7% 5.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.1% 2.1% 3.1% 2.6%
Consensus: 5.0% 30.1% 20.1% 6.9% 2.2% 11.1% 10.9% 17.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Chris90]

Also, here's the first SHIPS output. Looks like it crosses into the WPac at tau 60. Could possibly be a tropical storm by that point.

I'm curious as to what your personal thoughts are on this system's chances and potential. This was the area you mentioned the other day right? Seems to me like guidance was decently bullish there for a bit a few days ago but has backed off somewhat in recent runs.
Do you think this has a good chance to go 100kts+ (1 min) or no?

[1900hurricane]

I still think there is a decent chance that 90C can meet or exceed 100 kt, but that is far from a certainty. Perhaps the biggest negative factor over the next several days is a large PV streamer extending from just north of the invest westwards along 20ºN all the way back to the Marianas (big dry air wedge on water vapor). This could bring westerly shear and subsidence to the fledgling invest as it tries to develop. Some of the recent guidance has been a little more north with the system in closer proximity to the PV streamer/TUTT feature, which may account for the downtrend in intensity. It isn't overwhelming, so it might be possible to overpower the feature with sustained convection, but I think the further south the invest can manage to slink, the better chance it has to become strong.

[1900hurricane]

Also worth pointing out that SHIPS output looks pretty good for the most part. The biggest negative influence I see is vortex tendency, meaning the GFS isn't developing it. SSTs are high, shear is favorable, and mid-level relative humidity is ok.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1161851491382124545

[1900hurricane]

After looking at some more guidance data, a decrease in low level westerlies in the next couple days may also play a part in the weaker solutions.

[Chris90]

Thanks for your analysis, I always enjoy reading your take on things.
I'm interested to watch this over the next few days to see how things evolve. Coming from a purely visual place without factoring in guidance or anything else, this is a good looking invest, it has that look and structure that suggests it can really go to town, it's really just going to depend on the environment feeding it the right tropical nutrients.
I'd love to see an Ioke-esque cyclone, but I definitely don't have any hopes or expectations for that, especially not this year.

[euro6208]

Just like that. 00Z EURO doesn't develop it anymore.

[1900hurricane]

Man, it sure lost a lot of definition.

[Chris90]

When GOES-17 went down for a time this morning it probably thought "why bother?" and gave up. Maybe someone should let it know the satellite is working again and we can watch its every movement.

[Hayabusa]

I knew something was up when the Euro trended weaker and the GFS being on and off, and then the Euro 15/00Z and 15/12Z came, and then that's when I knew the dateline tracker could be most probably a phantom strong storm, in short a bust. But according to the Euro 15/12Z there's still a chance for 90C but that's when only it's in the Philippine Sea when Euro tries to revive it but I doubt it for now. Near term I'd watch for the Marianas system.

[Hurricane Jed]

It’s toast.