EPAC: ERICK - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUL 2019 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 11:47:45 N Lon : 134:11:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988.7mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.1 4.2

Center Temp : -57.3C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

The storm's cloud pattern is becoming better organized and has
taken on a comma shape, with very cold cloud tops to at least -80
deg C. There is prominent upper-tropospheric outflow, except over
the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. An eye is not yet
evident in the imagery, however. Erick's current intensity
estimate is set at 60 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak
estimates from UW-CIMSS. The dynamical guidance indicates that the
vertical shear will remain below 10 kt for the next 48 hours and
SSTs should remain near 28 deg C, which would favor steady
strengthening. Additionally, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
continues to show a high probability, near 70 percent, of rapid
strengthening. Thus the official wind speed forecast shows a
significant increase during the next 1 to 2 days, with the system
predicted to attain major hurricane status within that time frame.
This is in agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, and the FSU
Superensemble guidance, FSSE, along with the HWRF model simulation.

Erick continues to move westward, or around 270/14 kt. A mid-level
ridge is predicted to remain to the north of the tropical cyclone
over the next several days which should maintain a mainly westward
track. The track models suggest a slight bend toward the
west-northwest in 36-72 hours, but with no substantial northward
excursions. The new official track forecast is quite similar to
the previous one, and is a little south of the latest dynamical
model consensus. It should be noted that the latest ECMWF model run
shows a track that is even a little farther to the south.

The wind radii have been adjusted based on data from a recent
ASCAT-C overpass which depicted a slightly larger storm than
previously estimated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 11.7N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 4.0.


A. 06E (ERICK)

B. 29/1200Z

C. 12.1N

D. 135.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. MET =
3.5 AND PT = 4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 06, 2019072912, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1362W, 60, 991, TS,

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 0, 118N, 1362W, 60, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 30, 90,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 0, 118N, 1362W, 60, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 30, 90,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 12, 124N, 1392W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 12, 124N, 1392W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 12, 124N, 1392W, 70, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 24, 130N, 1420W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 20, 50, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 24, 130N, 1420W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 15, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 24, 130N, 1420W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 36, 138N, 1444W, 95, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 80, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 36, 138N, 1444W, 95, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 36, 138N, 1444W, 95, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 48, 145N, 1467W, 100, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 80, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 48, 145N, 1467W, 100, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 48, 145N, 1467W, 100, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 72, 155N, 1510W, 80, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 50, 30, 70, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 72, 155N, 1510W, 80, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 96, 163N, 1555W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 10, 10, 60, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 96, 163N, 1555W, 50, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0,
EP, 06, 2019072912, 03, OFCL, 120, 170N, 1605W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 50, 20, 60, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Conventional IR satellite images suggest that the cloud pattern has
not changed significantly during the past several hours, and in
fact, it appears that it has deteriorated some. However, recent
microwave data reveal the development of an eye, and most likely
this feature will soon become apparent on conventional imagery.
Based on an average of both UW-CIMSS objective and subjective Dvorak
numbers, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory.

The environment is currently favorable for intensification, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon. The most
aggressive intensity models are the corrected consensus HCCA and the
FSU Superensemble FSSE which bring Erick to Cat 3 by 2 days, and so
does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when
the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter
strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official
forecast does not depart from the previous one.

Erick is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 15 kt. The
cyclone is currently being steered by the easterly flow around
the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly,
and this pattern should provide a west-northwest motion of the
cyclone. In addition, there is no evidence of any sharp turn to the
north in any of the track models. The NHC forecast remains unchanged
and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the
corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 12.3N 136.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

Wow dry air actually bothered it.

[Chris90]

Wow dry air actually bothered it.

Yeah, just looking purely at satellite, Flossie is actually the better looking of the two right now in my opinion. Trends in microwave images indicate Erick's core may have eroded some, and it was never a complete eyewall in the first place. He's not as far along today as I anticipated.
I'm going to laugh if both of these storms fail to make major status after we were all pumped up for them. With the developments with Erick and the NHC not as bullish on Flossie now, I'm not as bullish in my expectations either. I still think there's a good chance for both of them though, just chances are lowering with time.

Ah well, I'm just thankful for some decent storms to track. I feel bad for the Atlantic loyalists who spend weeks picking the bones of pitiful tropical waves waiting for their real season to start .

[Kingarabian]

Wow dry air actually bothered it.

Yeah, just looking purely at satellite, Flossie is actually the better looking of the two right now in my opinion. Trends in microwave images indicate Erick's core may have eroded some, and it was never a complete eyewall in the first place. He's not as far along today as I anticipated.
I'm going to laugh if both of these storms fail to make major status after we were all pumped up for them. With the developments with Erick and the NHC not as bullish on Flossie now, I'm not as bullish in my expectations either. I still think there's a good chance for both of them though, just chances are lowering with time.

Ah well, I'm just thankful for some decent storms to track. I feel bad for the Atlantic loyalists who spend weeks picking the bones of pitiful tropical waves waiting for their real season to start .

It still has maybe about 36-48 hours left of before shear kicks in. That's if it kicks in at all.

EPS members are keen on keeping this a moderate TS while it's in the CPAC:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

An average of Dvorak intensity estimates indicates that Erick is
not quite a hurricane yet. The cloud pattern has not changed very
much since this morning, and the mid-level eye in microwave data has
been intermittent. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this
advisory.

The environment continues to be favorable for intensification, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane soon. The corrected-
consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE continue to
bring Erick to near category 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC
forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in
the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly
shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does
not depart significantly from the previous one.

Erick is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt
steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge
is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a
west-northwestward motion of the cyclone with a decrease in
forward speed. There are no models suggesting any sharp turn to the
north during the next 5 days. The NHC track forecast has changed
little, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE
and the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.7N 138.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 15.3N 147.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 16.0N 151.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 16.5N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 160.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly surprised the NHC didn't reduce its forecast peak.

[Kingarabian]

Honestly surprised the NHC didn't reduce its forecast peak.

It still has plenty of time to reach 100kits.

Also looks like a warm spot or the eye beginning to clear out on visible:

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly surprised the NHC didn't reduce its forecast peak.

It still has plenty of time to reach 100kits.

A few hours ago, Erick was (hard to gauge it right now with now microwave though visible suggests quite a bit of improvement) struggling dry air, with its inner core falling apart in less than two hours and objective estimates were increasing. Thus, I thought there was merit to lowering expectations with this storm. Nevertheless, there's still a decent change Erick becomes a robust Cat 3/4 hurricane. We've seen plenty of storms stall out and not reach their anticipated intensity but we've also seen the reverse as well where a system stalls out intensity wise for a net 18-24 hours or sometimes even more and still manages to blow up. Probably a 50/50 proposition at this point. This does have a very good upper level environment going for it and about 36-48 hours remaining and its contracting size should help dry air wise, however. On the other hand, ECMWF seems less enthusiastic with it and SST's are dropping and this has been deepening at a slower rate than expected.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1155976353298046977

[Kingarabian]

Erick has been mixing out dry air and now CDO looks more symmetrical compared to earlier this morning:

[Kingarabian]

An AMSR2 pass just came in and shows that Erick has recovered most of its core and a microwave eye is evident. All the green around the eyewall is indicative of dry air so it still has work to do.


Although a bit obscured, 37ghz scan shows a Cyan ring which gives Erick a shot at rapidly intensifying tonight.

[Yellow Evan]

Given there’s closed eyewall, this is more likely than not a minimal hurricane. Dry air still lurks so it’s not go time yet, however.

[Nancy Smar]

TXPZ25 KNES 300028
TCSENP

A. 06E (ERICK)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 12.7N

D. 139.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 10.5/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=4.0 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1901Z 12.2N 138.1W AMSU


...FISHER

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 06, 2019072918, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1376W, 65, 991, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 20, 40, 1010, 120, 15, 75, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ERICK, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 06, 2019072918, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1376W, 65, 991, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 10, 10, 1010, 120, 15, 75, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ERICK, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 06, 2019072918, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1376W, 65, 991, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 15, 75, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ERICK, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 06, 2019073000, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1393W, 65, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 20, 40, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ERICK, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 06, 2019073000, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1393W, 65, 990, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 10, 20, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ERICK, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 06, 2019073000, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1393W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ERICK, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,

[Kingarabian]

Finally a hurricane lol.