ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Ken711]

I can certainly see why the GFS shows this invest getting squashed by the next wave rolling off Africa

And the name Imelda is about as bad as Irma

https://i.postimg.cc/hGgKvzbX/goes16-ir-eatl-201909062034.jpg

Don't need another I storm like Irma that's for sure.

[gatorcane]

Convection is increasing and it is losing latitude:



Path of deceasing shear lies ahead:

[Abdullah]

Convection is firing a bit now actually. The wave behind it is coming offshore too now. Would be surprised if one of the two don't develop.

I'm wondering if:
1) 94L becomes Imelda due to slow development and the wave behind it becomes Humberto instead
2) Twin majors

I think 94L becomes Humberto, and the future 95L (wave behind it) becomes the infamous “I” storm Imelda. Humberto is weak and short-lived while Imelda becomes a significant storm, just my two cents.

I think it'll be more of the other way around, with Humberto becoming a stronger storm, and Imelda being weaker. The reason "I" storms are infamous is because statistics help their number. In this season, we haven't had so many storms. The peak of the hurricane season is only in 4 days, so I think "H" might get it this time.

[DioBrando]

I'm wondering if:
1) 94L becomes Imelda due to slow development and the wave behind it becomes Humberto instead
2) Twin majors

I think 94L becomes Humberto, and the future 95L (wave behind it) becomes the infamous “I” storm Imelda. Humberto is weak and short-lived while Imelda becomes a significant storm, just my two cents.

I think it'll be more of the other way around, with Humberto becoming a stronger storm, and Imelda being weaker. The reason "I" storms are infamous is because statistics help their number. In this season, we haven't had so many storms. The peak of the hurricane season is only in 4 days, so I think "H" might get it this time.

I'm totally agreeing with you on this.

[FireRat]

I second that thought as well, 'H' might have its chance. Crazy how the big one this year was the 'D'. Very hard to see another beast like the D word this year, hopefully.

[Aric Dunn]

Models are clearly not doing well with the actual systems right now.. This same thing happened with dorian.. they kept trying to merge it and trap it in the ITCZ among other issues... .

The one thing different here is that 94L is a very distinct system already separated from the ITCZ.


Its is very likey that convection continues to pulse slowing gaining in coverage over the next 48hrs at which point we will all be looking and waiting for the NHC to upgrade it.

[sma10]

Models are clearly not doing well with the actual systems right now.. This same thing happened with dorian.. they kept trying to merge it and trap it in the ITCZ among other issues... .

The one thing different here is that 94L is a very distinct system already separated from the ITCZ.


Its is very likey that convection continues to pulse slowing gaining in coverage over the next 48hrs at which point we will all be looking and waiting for the NHC to upgrade it.

Aric, i agree that this has a very high chance, but we might have to wait several days for it to come together. But while we're staring way out there, what do you think about that sneak attack forming in the bahamas in a few days?

[SFLcane]

Looking pretty good this morning despite all the model support has dropped.

[GCANE]

Latest WINDSAT, CIMSS 850mb Vort, Earth Nullschool Surface Winds.

[GCANE]

Moderate mid-level dry air, 15 knt shear.
Massive TPW pool.
Need to wait until about 50W before it does anything.
If it does, it could be a killer.

[Abdullah]

That looks like the right side of the storm being centered around 14°N 25.5°W on this ASCAT pass

[Buck]

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while the system moves westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Abdullah]

WindSAT also shows a, what seems to me as, a healthy NorthWestern Side. It looks as if it's almost closed off

[Abdullah]

SMAP seems to be going the opposite direction with this thing...

[Abdullah]

ASMR also begs to differ

[GCANE]

UKMET & GFS had this initialized yesterday.
CMC initializes this today.
All tracking straight west.
A bit puzzled the long-term prob was dropped a notch.

[GCANE]

CCKW looks favorable now, but forecast to go down hill quickly.

[crm6360]

Moderate mid-level dry air, 15 knt shear.
Massive TPW pool.
Need to wait until about 50W before it does anything.
If it does, it could be a killer.

Statements like these are unnecessary when we don’t even have a developing system. The world could end tomorrow, too.

[hipshot]

CCKW looks favorable now, but forecast to go down hill quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/0MaLdSF.png

https://i.imgur.com/PqiNeBI.png

Could you give me a laymen's explanation of what these last 4 images mean. I haven't seen these before.
Thks.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT has a fairly well defined circulation but is on the SE part due to some shear.