ATL: DORIAN - Models

[stormlover2013]

Lol making yalls brain hurt huh, flipping isn’t over

[p1nheadlarry]

Pretty high DCAPE and shear in Georgia around 130 hrs from a sounding on TT as the storm makes landfall

[beachman80]

Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.

[Incident_MET]

Anyone know when G4 data will be included ? Which model run?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Never mind

[ronjon]

Tonight's Euro run will be interesting. And here I thought it might trend southward. Oh well, should learn my lesson things 5 days out are subject to major changes.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.

There you have it. It’s over. Sound the all clear bells

[Aric Dunn]

18z still initializes it west of St lucia. but its west of Guadalupe about 150 off. same as earlier.

and since it is incredibly important in the short term how are east.. i shall disregard the actual track on this rin.

legacy is about 100 miles to far south.. so yeah..

[BobHarlem]

Well so much for track consistency. GFS to Savannah, Legacy re curves and out to sea (after getting stupidly intense)

[toad strangler]

500 mb SW Atlantic ridging much weaker on 18z GFS. If this trend holds, Dorian will be a US east coast threat. Big change in synoptics.

Indeed! Even the legacy is heading north to. Like I said I would not be surprised if ultimately this heads out to sea.

Did we all forget that this was never initialized correctly?

People like eye candy. Doesn’t matter where it comes from lol

[ronjon]

One big difference between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro is the speed of the system. Euro much faster by almost a couple of hundred miles by day 5-6.

[AtlanticWind]

Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.

Sounds like that guy needs a new job, even if he's right it's unprofessional.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone know when G4 data will be included ? Which model run?

not sure they flew today. but there was a P3 doing synoptic and surround environment.. that will make it into the 00z.

[toad strangler]

Legacy similar but OTS it looks like lol

[jdjaguar]

Well so much for track consistency. GFS to Savannah, Legacy re curves and out to sea (after getting stupidly intense)

Both GFC runs are in fairly close agreement this far out.
Legacy does wind storm to 920 off Cape Fear, while revised GFS makes landfall in Savannah.

I learned long ago not to rule anything out, as stupid as it may initially appear.

[Blown Away]

The GFS and GFS-Legacy really seems to slow down on approach as opposed to the Euro which pushes Dorian right on thru.

they are modeling the ridge a little differently but the idea is the same..a turn to the west, will have to see if the models settle down a bit on the ridging tomorrow but its really looking like something north of palm beach and south of jax and the gulf is definitely in play..south floridans dont think you are out of it, these models don't handle really stout ridges well and once a system starts turning west anything is possible including wsw,,, they will get out and sample the whole area in the SW Atlantic and get a handle on how much ridge is actually there, there are going to be heavy air miles the next few days doing drops

Remember how extremely rare a hurricane strike, especially a major, from the SE between Vero Beach and Savannah... I expect a stronger ridge resulting in Dorian moving south of Vero or the trap door opens and he moves towards Carolinas or OTS... JMHO

[caneseddy]

Can't wait for the GFS run into New York City it usually does

But all kidding aside, we are still a couple of days away from getting a good idea of final landfall (remember the northward relocation of the COC may change everything). Models for Matthew in 2016 were all out to sea and then slowly came west until it scraped the coast. In 2017, the GFS was all over the East Coast with Irma and then trended south and west. Just saying, no one in Florida (and that includes South Florida) should feel that they are out of the woods. Let things play out.

[LarryWx]

GFS Legacy strengths have routinely been 30-50 mb too strong for several years. For example, it had early runs of Irma down to a ridiculous 900 or so mb just off SC/NC and in the 880s to 890s coming into S FL. I'd feel comfortable adding at least 30 mb to any extreme GFS Legacy prog. that is out on its own amongst dynamic models for something more reasonable. But even after adding 30 mb, the 18Z would still be really bad, a major in the 950s. Unfortunately, a 950s major would not be an unrealistic worst case scenario due to very low shear, very warm SSTs, and very moist dewpoints though hopefully it wouldn't be that bad.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs flip floppy doo

[Dylan]

I’ve thrown everything from 12 & 18z in the trash due to center relocation from earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

I’ve thrown everything from 12 & 18z in the trash due to center relocation from earlier.

yeppers..