ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Recon data is showing surface center moving wsw and pressure rising. IR sat shoows possible MLC to the NNE of surface center. Definitely some NE shear, and becoming decoupled from surface to mid-level, IMO.

If it’s not reforming under the convection this may not be a tropical cyclone and just a wave

[stormhunter7]

Also possible, we may see surface center exposed on shortwave imagery here in next few hours if storms don't fire near center.

[Hurricaneman]

Dorian looking at the recon thread no longer has a surface low, this is a tropical wave

[stormhunter7]

Recon went north and got into some winds and maybe the center trying to be pulled north? Maybe Barbados mountains threw up a wall as it passed?

[ScottNAtlanta]

If you look at past storms that have come up and then bended west towards Florida, that a pretty classic rapid intensifying track. IF it makes it there, and thats still not certain. That track isnt common, but it was the same track as an intensifying Katrina, Andrew, and Jeanne all come to mind as being forced to the west and then intensifying rapidly.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think they found it to the NW.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Yes it looks like a 1007 MB center to the NW right under the convection
I wonder what a jump like that does to the track?

[stormhunter7]

That's has to be the most bumpy part of the flight now. In deep convection! I bet they were getting tossed around!

[Kat5]

Looks like a center relocation caught on this recon pass. But overall convection needs to improve for it to stride on. This looks like Erika 2.0

[Hurricaneman]

Barbados actually disrupted Dorian but it also might have expanded the windfield

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be being pulled northwest to NNW into the deep convection so recon could find a stronger system even within an hour

[wx98]

SFMR >45 kt on that pass. FL winds 40-45 kt as well.
The center has jumped or reformed to the northwest of the previous pass.

[AtlanticWind]

Convection firing pretty good now

[AxaltaRacing24]

Seems to be reorganizing a bit tonight.

[Hurricaneman]

Convection firing pretty good now

I believe the center has now moved under that new explosive burst of convection, looking much better now

[AtlanticWind]

Convection firing pretty good now

I believe the center has now moved under that new explosive burst of convection, looking much better now

Agree, we will have to see if it can tighten its circulation now.

[jaxfladude]

Which model(s) show(ed) Dorian dissipating and is it? Or too soon to tell. Some post saying it is weaking into a wave others saying it is just trying to find a new center...

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[AxaltaRacing24]

Which model(s) show(ed) Dorian dissipating and is it? Or too soon to tell. Some post saying it is weaking into a wave others saying it is just trying to find a new centet...

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gfs, gfs, and the gfs.

[USTropics]

The past 3-4 mornings Dorian has exhibited strengthening that begins in the early morning hours. There are multiple reasons for this, Dorian has been able to extend an inflow channel into South America to take advantage of waning convection from daytime boundary layer heating, as well as the favorable diurnal cycle for deep convection that begins over the ocean in the early morning. Oceanic peak for diurnal maximum is more prominent in preexisting convection associated with organized systems, such as Dorian, AEWs, and mesoscale systems:

[jaxfladude]

I do not need another hurricane headache too many close calls and nasty impacts last few years in my area. Off to bed. Prayers.

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