ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Back to models:
The 18Z GEFS is a huge shift in terms of main threat areas vs the prior 3+ runs. Whereas the prior 3 runs emphasized a direct hit on the east coast of FL south of Daytona and then into the Gulf, the 18Z emphasizes the entire SE coast FL-NC for direct hits and even has 2-3 that skirt the SE coast and never make landfall similar to the 18Z GFS Legacy. The Gulf threat is much lower on this run. Maybe just maybe the trend will continue such that there isn't a direct SE hit? We can only hope although I wouldn't bet on this yet due to the tendency of SE ridging to be stronger than model projections since at least 2018.

Since 2015 with erika tbh. It really showed with Matthew in 2016 though.

[beachman80]

18z ICON continues to show a strong ridge and a west bend into South Florida, around Palm Beach:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2718&fh=36

[tgenius]

Again, do ANY of the 18z runs have the proper initialization location Or are they all initializing with incorrect plots?

[Kat5]

The models are beginning to consolidate as the north trend continues on strong today. Jupiter and north really need to watch this one.

[Aric Dunn]

18z ICON continues to show a strong ridge and a west bend into South Florida, around Palm Beach:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2718&fh=36

delete

[AxaltaRacing24]

The models are beginning to consolidate as the north trend continues on strong today. Jupiter and north really need to watch this one.

South of Jupiter needs to watch too. Nobody is out of the woods as we are still 5 days out. Model's will continue to windshield wipe all across the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Again, do ANY of the 18z runs have the proper initialization location Or are they all initializing with incorrect plots?

So far Icon, and HWRF. not even the BAM models.

[toad strangler]

The models are beginning to consolidate as the north trend continues on strong today. Jupiter and north really need to watch this one.

South of Jupiter needs to watch too. Nobody is out of the woods as we are still 5 days out. Model's will continue to windshield wipe all across the coast.

It's amazing how many times this has to be said. Oh well...

[tgenius]

The models are beginning to consolidate as the north trend continues on strong today. Jupiter and north really need to watch this one.

ALL models had incorrect initialization. Please don’t use them as gospel until the correct start is used.

[stormlover2013]

The models are beginning to consolidate as the north trend continues on strong today. Jupiter and north really need to watch this one.

There is no Trend, I said yesterday wait till Thursday or Friday for a trend

[Evil Jeremy]

Even if the 18z models initialized correctly, I wasn't going to place much value in them. 00z, with new Recon upper air data, should hopefully answer some questions about the near-term strength of the ridging to the north.

There is no Trend, I said yesterday wait till Thursday or Friday for a trend

If there is no trend, why is the center of the cone now pointing 100+ miles North of where it was at the same point yesterday?

[northjaxpro]

Again, do ANY of the 18z runs have the proper initialization location Or are they all initializing with incorrect plots?

I also am of the belief that the 18Z Operational GFS run package did not have the right updated initialized plots in time either

[AxaltaRacing24]

Even if the 18z models initialized correctly, I wasn't going to place much value in them. 00z, with new Recon upper air data, should hopefully answer some questions about the near-term strength of the ridging to the north.

There is no Trend, I said yesterday wait till Thursday or Friday for a trend

If there is no trend, why is the center of the cone now pointing 100+ miles North of where it was at the same point yesterday?

Read the NHC's own quote

Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track
forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

[SFLcane]

Ortt says do not expect any track changes.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1166487333161623552

[stormlover2013]

Even if the 18z models initialized correctly, I wasn't going to place much value in them. 00z, with new Recon upper air data, should hopefully answer some questions about the near-term strength of the ridging to the north.

There is no Trend, I said yesterday wait till Thursday or Friday for a trend

If there is no trend, why is the center of the cone now pointing 100+ miles North of where it was at the same point yesterday!! Focus on the next 2 days with models not long range


Models are flopping like crazy, been doing it since Sunday, how can there be a trend when gfs is every where, icon and ukmet is basically south Florida and euro is west of Florida panhandle...

[beachman80]

Even if the 18z models initialized correctly, I wasn't going to place much value in them. 00z, with new Recon upper air data, should hopefully answer some questions about the near-term strength of the ridging to the north.

There is no Trend, I said yesterday wait till Thursday or Friday for a trend

If there is no trend, why is the center of the cone now pointing 100+ miles North of where it was at the same point yesterday?

That's not a trend. That's just a movement. A trend is when ALL of the models continue to move north over a day's worth of runs. It could easily flip flop back the other way. If we're talking at this time tomorrow about SC and NC, then that's a trend. But we could easily be talking Miami again tomorrow at this time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF has Dorian as a hurricane by 90 hours.

12z HWRF barely had a TD at this point.

[SFLcane]

Not worth a mention but I guess why not...18z nogaps has an intensifying cane nearing landfall in sfl.

[chris_fit]

18z GFS Ens

Not as north of a shift as I woulda thought, after that operational run

[Evil Jeremy]

If there is no trend, why is the center of the cone now pointing 100+ miles North of where it was at the same point yesterday?

Read the NHC's own quote

Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track
forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Obviously, yes, don't focus on the center of the cone.

But suggesting that the 24 hour progression from this:
http://flhurricane.com/images/2019/stor ... 6-1711.gif

To this: https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_05.gif

Isn't a trend, doesn't really help anyone.

I'm also perfectly aware that trends can, and often do change.