ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

It's worth remembering that large, diffuse, weak and poorly organized systems often have their worst weather well removed from the center. Unless and until Barry can get its act together this may be a classic "follow the convection" situation when attempting to determine impacts. Still looks like a big flood risk and as the 2016 torrential rain even showed us...rain potential isn't correlated to strength/organization..

[BRweather]

Looks like sheer is relaxing. Look at the outer squalls that formed over LA and their structure on visible satellite. They were getting sheered all day and now had vertical growth. Also look to the east of where recon is pinning the CoC. Storms starting to make some northern progress with vertical growth. Would not be surprised to see a better appearance overnight. Will likely still be some type of void to the north, but might be just enough convection to overlap the center.

[SoupBone]

Barry just spit out another vort NE of its center, fun times with Barry At this rate it may not strengthen much more before landfall.

But when is it forecast to start turning North? It's getting to be go time soon. Is the trough even moving down still?

[Hammy]

First check in for this one, and not really sure what's changed to warrant naming today vs yesterday, looks about as organized if not less than earlier. Either it was a TD yesterday or it isn't a tropical storm today and while everybody should prepare according to the warnings, I'm not sure this will come in any stronger than it currently is.

[Stormcenter]

I must respectfully disagree, it actually looks way better than it did this morning. IMO

First check in for this one, and not really sure what's changed to warrant naming today vs yesterday, looks about as organized if not less than earlier. Either it was a TD yesterday or it isn't a tropical storm today and while everybody should prepare according to the warnings, I'm not sure this will come in any stronger than it currently is.

[CrazyC83]

At this point, I wonder if Subtropical Storm is a better classification? Could there be a change in post-analysis?

[wxman57]

Another eddy? If that's not THE center, then it still lacks a well-defined one. If it IS the center, then it's heading for the mouth of the Mississippi.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1149460132637679616

[AxaltaRacing24]

First check in for this one, and not really sure what's changed to warrant naming today vs yesterday, looks about as organized if not less than earlier. Either it was a TD yesterday or it isn't a tropical storm today and while everybody should prepare according to the warnings, I'm not sure this will come in any stronger than it currently is.

it now has a llc. that's what changed. and it may not look like it, but it has been getting a bit stronger. look for lower pressure and possibly a 5mph wind increase in the next advisory.

[Nederlander]

First check in for this one, and not really sure what's changed to warrant naming today vs yesterday, looks about as organized if not less than earlier. Either it was a TD yesterday or it isn't a tropical storm today and while everybody should prepare according to the warnings, I'm not sure this will come in any stronger than it currently is.

They were able to fix a coc today, unlike yesterday. The eddies we have being seeing were/are rotating around a broader coc.

[Stormcenter]

Sure looks like the center and even has convection starting to wrap around on the northeast side.

Another eddy? If that's not THE center, then it still lacks a well-defined one. If it IS the center, then it's heading for the mouth of the Mississippi.

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry3.JPG

[tropicwatch]

Looks like recon found the center just northeast of its last position.

[SunnyThoughts]

Not sure where the center is, but that is a wide chunk of the gulf filled with convection and rain. Hopefully it doesn't organize any stronger...The rain alone is going to be enough for some people for sure.

[wxman57]

Sure looks like the center and even has convection starting to wrap around on the northeast side.

Another eddy? If that's not THE center, then it still lacks a well-defined one. If it IS the center, then it's heading for the mouth of the Mississippi.

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry3.JPG

The more I look at it, the more it does look like the center. Take a look at the 18Z GFS from 18Z Friday to 12Z Saturday. It moves a low to just west of the mouth of the MS and sort of stalls it the moves it slowly west along the coast then inland just east of Vermilion Bay. That could be this low center.

[wxman57]

Crosshairs represent the NHC's 00Z position. Not much there. I think they're assuming the low to the NE is rotating around an area of low pressure.

[MississippiWx]

Crosshairs represent the NHC's 00Z position. Not much there. I think they're assuming the low to the NE is rotating around an area of low pressure.

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry4.JPG

New recon pass strongly suggests that this is the real center.

[wxman57]

Crosshairs represent the NHC's 00Z position. Not much there. I think they're assuming the low to the NE is rotating around an area of low pressure.

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry4.JPG

New recon pass strongly suggests that this is the real center.

I see the recon, but all that confirms is it's a low center. Convection is starting to wrap around its eastern side, though maybe it's just another eddy.

Oh, Levi has a new video up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=LLX-N1op0dQ

[MississippiWx]

Crosshairs represent the NHC's 00Z position. Not much there. I think they're assuming the low to the NE is rotating around an area of low pressure.

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry4.JPG

New recon pass strongly suggests that this is the real center.

I see the recon, but all that confirms is it's a low center. Convection is starting to wrap around its eastern side, though maybe it's just another eddy.

Oh, Levi has a new video up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=LLX-N1op0dQ

Convection hasn't been able to wrap around any of the eddies today, so this makes me believe the one you are referring to is the real one.

[MississippiWx]

Barry is up to 45mph now on the 7PM update. NHC placed a center at 27.8N while recon found it at 28.2N.

[Sanibel]

Pounding torrential rain here...